PureGirth

2-2 YTD

Cavs -2.5

1-1 last week. Still upset the Bengals aren't playing the Pats today...

2 team 6 pt tease: Pats pk Cardinals -1.5
Packers/Cards O 50
Seahawks +3

7-7.

Can't shake .500

Cincinnati -4
Miami -4.5
Iowa St -1.5

All road chalk which I hate so we'll see

Mavs - 1 

1-1 YTD

Mavs -1
Rockets +1.5

1-0 YTD

Thunder -11

Going to keep picking on the T Wolves here. OKC lost last time out at Portland and I like them to bounce back. Lillard matches up well with Westbrook and had a great game but Rubio just isn't athletic enough to compete with Russ. Rubio isn't good enough defensively and I can't see Minny slowing Russ down. The T Wolves can score and Wiggins and Towns have been very impressive but this reminds me of the Cavs-Wolves game last week. The Thunder will score at a very high rate and the Wolves won't be able to keep up.

5-5 YTD

West Virginia +2.5
Providence +2.5
Maryland -2.5
Iowa State -2.5

1-0

Packers -1

Not much of a write-up for this one. Just a feeling. Redskins are red hot and have been great at home all year but haven't played good competition. GB is playing so poorly but has played well against good teams. GB has looked plain bad so I wouldn't be surprised if they lose but I think Rodgers and company can squeak one out. The Redskins defense is not good so the Pack receivers may get open for once.

Might add another pick or a teaser before the games begin

I've been back and forth on all of these games which isn't a good thing but I've finally locked in a few picks.

Bengals ML +130

As I've stated in a few of my threads, I am a huge Bengals fan. Go to all the games, I'll be there tomorrow. I try to avoid bias and I'd say I do a pretty good job with that. Last week I couldn't have been cheering any harder for the Jets. Steelers at home... absolute worst case scenario for the Bengals. I think I'd rather be playing them in Pittsburgh. My initial thought, naturally, was here we go again. 4 straight first round losses and we face the team that always has our number and always crushes our dreams (Carson Palmer, 10 years ago today). But after taking the emotion out of it and really analyzing the match up, I started to see where the Bengals could have an advantage.

Let's not put too much emphasis into the last meeting. McCarron was not prepared to start that game and minus the two turnovers he played pretty well. The Steelers only scored 23 points on offense (taking away 10 points from the pick six and int returned to the bengals 10) and that was during the stretch they could not be stopped. The damage the Steelers did in that game was on 3rd down. The Bengals could not get off the field after playing very well on 1st and 2nd down. DeAngelo Williams only averaged 3.3 ypc in the game after averaging nearly 8 ypc in the first matchup, the Cin D had to focus on him. The Bengals always do a relatively good job on Antonio Brown but always get killed by Heath Miller. He destroys them on 3rd down. The Bengals D line is a very solid group but very inconsistent. They didn't get pressure on Ben last game and that will change. Not having DeAngelo will kill the Steelers and make them one dimensional. That will not be effective against the Bengals defense. Vontaze Burfict is playing his best football since his injury in 2013 and is finally fully healthy. He is extremely active and all over the field. He makes everyone around him better.

AJ McCarron has done a solid job in Andy Dalton's absence but he's going to need to step it up in two areas. He must get the ball out quickly. He has been holding on to the ball much longer than Dalton and is getting sacked at a higher rate while defenses are blitzing at a much lower percentage. He also must be accurate on throws down the field. He has missed a few open receivers down field the past few weeks. I do like that he does stretch the field and takes shots down the field. Why wouldn't you when you have weapons such as AJ Green, Marvin Jones, and Tyler Eifert. Marvin Jones is a FA this off season and will get a nice contract. He's big and athletic and AJ has thrown him the ball more than Dalton did and I really like that. Sanu has been involved more in the offense and the few wildcat looks he has gotten have been effective. Don't be surprised if this is the game that Hue Jackson calls for a Sanu throw. He is 3/3 with 2 touchdowns in his career. The Bengals have a solid offensive line and two good running backs. Jeremy Hill has been running with more urgency and better vision as of late. He's been dancing around less and they're going to need him to run hard tomorrow. Gio is a playmaker and is reliable out of the backfield. Bottom line, this team is loaded offensively and has no weak spots. Quarterback is the one question mark and as long as he stays mistake free and makes the plays expected of him, they should be able to move the ball on Pitt. Pitts D is really solid in the front seven but they have a very weak secondary. Ryan Mallet tore them apart for goodness sake.

Would I be surprised if the Steelers win. Absolutely not. I'm used to it. I'm ready for it. I can already feel the disappointment. But I think the Steelers are being overrated here and without DeAngelo Williams they will be very one dimensional. Big Ben is great and has dominated the Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium but Geno Atkins, Carlos Dunlap, and Michael Johnson will be coming after him and force him into some bad throws. The Bengals seem focused and ready. They've been there before (and lost) but I think McCarron is up for the challenge and the team believes in him. It will be raining during the game and I don't think that'll be a big factor but could benefit the Bengals and their running game. Should be similar to the first matchup in Pitt. The under is a great pick as well but I'll be rolling with Bengals ML. I can't take any more disappointment.

BOL

Square play but I'm taking the Cavs -10.5 They're playing very well with Kyrie back in the lineup and he's starting to look like his old self again. K Love will want to have a big game back in Minny and they're putting up lots of points right now. Minnesota isn't good at home and the only thing that worries me is they have a good ATS record against teams over .500 but they're just not playing very well. I expect the Cavs to win big here.

Cavs -10.5

Typical UC game. Defensive battle that stays close all game. What a choke at the end. Down the stretch they get super conservative and keep the ball on the perimeter and settle for a poor shot. This is the team I know best so I'll try and add insight on their games when I can.

That's all for the night. 1-0. 5-5 on the season

2-2 last night

2-3 last night

Haven't posted in the college bball section yet. Transitioning from football season into basketball. Gonna start paying more attention to hoops. We'll give it a try tonight

Thanks targa. That definitely could be a factor or they could just be hoping to get out of Baltimore with a win but I just think this is such a mismatch. Also, I threw it in the tease too just in case. Good luck!

3 team 10 pt tease:
Redskins +13
Lions pk
Steelers -.5

Steelers -10.5
Jets +3.5
Rams+13
Bengals +3.5

Quick thought on Steelers-Ravens. To all the arguments of this being a rivalry and all their games being close. I don't understand how that is relevant to this specific game. Early in the year the Steelers started Mike Vick and the Ravens still had Flacco. Now the Steelers have Big Ben and are hotter than anytime in the NFL on offense, going up against the 25th ranked defense. The Ravens secondary is atrocious. The Steelers will put up at least 30 and I just don't see Jimmy Clausen keeping it close. This isn't a traditional Steelers-Ravens battle. The Ravens just don't match up with the Steelers. I get the perception is that the Steelers can't be stopped and the Ravens are terrible. But I believe that's exactly how this game will turn out. I expect the Steelers to win big here.

GL everyone

Mgm - might as well

Humchucker - Eifert is out. Rookie TE Tyler Kroft has been a solid replacement. I do like that fg prop a lot

Tjohnson - I may have a pick but just thoughts for now. Just pointing out I don't let my bias get in the way and I have a pretty good feel of this team. Still analyzing some of the match ups

I am a huge Bengals fan so you may think I'm biased, but I have not picked any of their games wrong this year. I don't pick most of their games because I have a lot emotion invested in them. This is a very tough one to predict.

We've only had a game and a half to see AJ McCarron so that's a very small sample size. And that still isn't telling us much. The game vs. the Steelers he was thrown into the fire and they were playing from behind so he was forced to air it out. Last week against the 49ers, the Bengals offensive game plan was simply to run the ball and not allow AJ to make mistakes. That will not work against the Broncos. So to those claiming the 49ers outgained the Bengals, if you watched the game (I really hope you didn't because it was one of the least entertaining games I've ever seen) you would know why. The Bengals ran the ball, had good field position off turnovers, and after going up 24-0 continued their conservative play calling. They didn't run effectively but that's because the 49ers were daring McCarron to throw. Hue Jackson continued to run on 1st and 2nd down and everyone in the stadium (not many) knew what was coming.  Hue's game plan was to ease McCarron into the starter role and I think he'll be more creative and aggressive on Monday. One thing about McCarron in his limited play time is he has thrown the ball well down field. Over his game and a half, he has completed 3 passes that have traveled over 30 yards through the air. Something Dalton didn't do this year in that time span. If the Bengals O-line can give AJ time and a clean pocket, he will be able to succeed with all of his weapons.

However, this game is not just about McCarron. This is a game between two of the leagues best defenses. The Broncos defense is the best in the league in my opinion. They have an a great pass rush with two amazing rushers on the edge and the best pair of cornerbacks in the league. Talib matches up well with AJ Green especially with him being banged up. The Broncos should be able to contain the Bengals run game and force McCarron to throw the ball. The biggest matchup to watch then becomes the Bengals o-line vs. the Broncos pass rush. If Denver can put pressure on AJ and force him into taking sacks and turning the ball over, this one could get ugly. If they aren't able to do so, the Bengals have so many weapons that even the Broncos secondary will have their hands full.

The other back up quarterback in this game is Brock Osweiler. He has struggled lately and hasn't put up a single point in the last two second halves. He seems to be losing confidence and has been more inaccurate as of late. He's had the luxury of playing a prime time game vs the Pats at home, but he didn't necessarily light it up there. But the experience definitely helps. The thing that helped Osweiler succeed in his first few games was the Broncos run game. They were running the ball better than they had all year. But I don't see that being the case against the Bengals. Their D line has been great this year and with Vontaze Burfict back in the middle of their defense, they're a completely different unit. He is the heart of that defense and is all over the field making plays. The Bengals secondary had been banged up the past few weeks but they are getting healthier. If Pacman is plays, which he's expected to, that will be huge for their D.

The Broncos need this game to clinch a playoff spot. If they lose they are putting their playoff lives at jeopardy. They lost a crushing game last week after blowing a big lead. I don't think that matters. Plain and simple, win and they're in. The Bengals can clinch a first-round bye with a win. They really need the bye. 1, to avoid playing Pittsburgh in the first rounds and 2, at hopes that Dalton can come back in the playoffs. Both teams will be highly motivated for this one.

Final thoughts: I initially leaned Denver on this one. McCarron's second start on MNF at Denver against a tenacious defense. But I'm starting to lean the other way. Denver has not been that impressive all season. They've won a lot of close games against average competition where their defense saved them. Their offense is not that good. Now they face one of the better D's in the league and they are going to give Brock a hard time. This game screams under but there could be a lot of turnovers and short fields with these D's and inexperienced QB's so I don't want to go there. I could see value in Denver 1st half. Hue may be hesitant to be aggressive with AJ and Denver has played much better in 1st halves. I'm not sure that I'll pull trigger on anything because this game means too much to me as a fan. But I've seen a lot of people on here claiming Denver as their play of the year and I wouldn't be so sure about that. They could cover but I think the Bengals defense will keep this game close and they could win this game straight up if McCarron doesn't make mistakes.

Would love to hear some thoughts and discuss

3-2 for the second week in a row. I keep trusting the Bears which is a mistake. My other 2 leans would've won even though they were absurd covers. Continued my undefeated streak on Bengals games. Lean Denver next week. Will have a write up on that one later on