RebelTell2

 You be gambling tonight...like it.

 Pitt with worst offensive day splits in MLB...not too keen on fading that stat fact...good luck with the play.

The only "sharps" in sports betting are the books. Sad fact, but true. Books will always have the better statistical info and the better means by which to process it. You are deceiving yourself if you believe otherwise. Not only do the books have the best info, they also have the power to adjust the spread to their advantage. Every sports bettor needs to understand this; however, most ignore it. The urge for action is too addictive for most.

Think about this---what sensible poker player would play a hand knowing he/she is a 10% dog every time? Not many, certainly not many winners. That's what sports bettors do every time they place a bet. Here's another sad truth--the books could pay the bettor 10% for a winner and most would still be losers. That's how hard it is to beat sports betting.

John Sterling, the long time Yankees announcer said it best--"And people bet on this stuff...anybody who tries to predict a baseball game has to be crazy." He should know;he's seen enough of them.

RT2

Day/night split definitely favors the Royals...KC with the best daytime BA in MLB, .283.

You're betting on a solid pitcher and a strong young team that got smoked at home yesterday...nothing wrong with liking that situation.

BOL,

RT2

King facing old team, Goldy & Bellinger the only hitters to have faced him...Pads with the best BP in MLB, .168 ERA, 0.95 WHIP/129 innings...you gotta love those stats. Should be a winner if SD can find a little offense.

BOL,

RT2

tonight...

--WS +180 1st 5 is tempting. The kid from Wake Forest can sling the biscuit; KC hasn't seen him yet. It's an intra-divisional game. The problem with the WS is they can't hit....216 BA, .625 OPS, even worse vs. LHP. KC has the BP edge by about 2 runs, don't like that at all.

--Pitt is interesting, good numbers vs. Mikolas. Their BP has improved since the start of the season. Cards line at @-130 seems low given their recent success vs. the Mets. Maybe the oddsmakers are giving bettors a clue with the low number. You could be on to something here. Few bettors will be fading the hot Cardinals tonight.

--Miami RL is a gamble. Dodgers have smoked Alcantara. Will be a BP game for LA. As visitors, they'll get a full 9 on offense. LA has a top tier BP...Miami, bottom tier. I hate giving up a BP edge. You're gonna have to get lucky to win this one, or maybe LA will come out flat. You never know.

BOL,

RT2

I backed Ryan his last outing. He threw 7 shutout innings vs. the Angels. Tonight's a different situation. Bregman and the Bosox are too hot with the sticks for me to fade. Maybe they'll chill out for you tonight, and the Twink's offense has finally been waking up somewhat. You gotta score if you want to win.

Hang tough...you wouldn't know what positive is without experiencing the negative. That's a fact of life. Always enjoy your posts.

RT2

Nice...hope you win it.

Nice write-ups. Yes indeed, baseball is unpredictable, and therein lies the enticement. But you have to pick your spots if you want to dog bet and make money.

--Like Arizona...good match-up for them. Both Harper and Schwarber are sub .200 vs. Kelly. And Phillies' pen is weak.

--Braves a possibility at home, but I'm not fading a pitcher with an 1.06 ERA. The risk ain't worth the reward.

--Wouldn't put a nickel on the Rays tonight. They hit under .200 vs LHP, and Fried is as good of a lefty as there is. I'm not fading the Yanks until Judge cools off. But I suppose if you like unpredictability, Tampa is a sure thing. Ha!

The under-the-radar, big dog that caught my eye is LAA 1st five innings. Halos have surprisingly strong number against Scooby-Doo, and most of the Tigers' young hitters haven't faced Soriano. Risk:reward ratio is decent. Worth looking at anyway, but not full game though; Angels BP is horrible...look what happened last night...8 runs final two innings.

BOL,

RT2

Tigs have a nice edge on the mound, better line-up too...not too keen on fading them, even with the travel time issue. They hit LHP pretty well; Kikuchi got popped in Minny his last outing. And the Halos were traveling too, just not as far.

Cubbies are a good gamble...their day splits on offense are much better than that of the Buccos...OPS more than .150 higher than the Pirates. Skenes is a beast though; beat him and you beat one of the best.

BOL,

RT2

You and the public...Tribe a popular play today. I'm not into populism. It's usually a bankroll killer.

Strange stat for this match-up---Kwan 0-12 vs. Ober...don't recall seeing Kwan 0-fer against any pitcher. Kwan sets the table Cleveland.

BOL,

RT2

Car wash vac kinda suction to bet the Tigs tonight.

BOL,

RT2

No Cleveland?

Nice play...Us vets need all the help we can get nowadays!

Twinks are off to a terrible start in 2025; Lopez is one of the few bright spots for them. He's the reason the number is as low as it is for a team that is playing so poorly.

Cash that ticket,

RT2

Sweeper.

@Moneymaker923

At -165, the books are in agreement with all you wrote. Starter edge, BP edge, should be a winner. M's hitting .188 to start the season scares me off. Plus the young Tigs have come out swinging, .293 vs. some pretty good pitching. You gotta score to win. On the positive side, the M's scored 6 last night; maybe it'll carry over to tonight.

Don't like fading Gilbert and don't like betting on a team that's not hitting. Liked your play last night, but gonna leave this one alone. Thanks for taking all the time to write it up.

RT2

Ha! You must be betting on the 'torpedo bat magic' with the Yanks. You definitely don't have an edge in the pitching match-up--Burnes against the kid from Brandon, MS. However, the Yanks' brass must see something in him; he wouldn't be on the mound tonight if they didn't.

RT2

Blanco had the best BABIP in MLB last year at .221...that is indeed super lucky...the worm could turn in 2025.