repthe305

Calbear is the truth. Follow him and you will have happy days!!

Well thanks for all the responses guys.  Guess I was actually doing something right by not focusing a lot of my time on the public.  I appreciate the input and advice. Good Luck to you guys this week!

Hey guys, I have a few questions that I hope you guys can help me figure out about public betting. I recently found a site that breaks down pretty thoroughly who the public is betting on and it refreshed frequently.  I am not sure of the forum rules here so I will not post the site.  But it has a pie graph and a line graph that shows what percentage of the public is for or against the spread.  Here are my questions.

#1. If the graph shows that 84% of the public is betting on the Colts -3 and 16% is on the Bengals +3, does that mean if I bet against the public and took the Bengals +3, would I technically be betting "with" Vegas?

#2.  If the line came out at -3 and has gone up to -5, does that mean that the favorite has been bet a lot and caused the line to go up?  If that is the case then would betting on the underdog +5 at that point be betting "with" Vegas since the public is obviously on the Favorite?

I may be way off in this thinking but I have NEVER paid attention to who the majority of the public is on or line movement for that matter.  I never really understood how to factor those two things into my analysis when trying to pick my games.  How much weight should those things have when trying to come up with my own lines and such?  I use power ratings for a base, then look at injuries and pretty much go from there.  I would love to understand how to use the public betting information and line moves to my advantage.  Thanks in advance if you are able to give me some insight and how to use this information!

-Chris

Good Luck this week Mega.  I want to say thank you for the time you take doing your write-ups and sharing your picks with us "not so good" cappers.  I try my best but seem to be missing something here and there and my personal picks are way off.  Thank goodness for you and Calbear, you guys keep me afloat and being able to pay week to week.

I guess if I was smart I would give up on making my own picks and trying to do my own thing and just ride you too, but I do enjoy the process of capping even if I stink.  I just get a little overwhelmed when trying to figure what information to rely on the most to make my own lines.  I use ratings and such but eventually come to a stand still when I can;t decide how much injuries or previous meetings should affect the line.

I will stop rambling at this point and just say thank you for what you do and I look forward to your winners this week!!

P.S. Not sure why I posted a moose to you, I just love that emoji!!

For college football Calbear is a MONSTER!!!!

That sounds like a great idea. It's nice to know that I am not the only one. I like the plan you have laid out and I am truly going to try to stick with it to see what kind of difference it makes. My biggest problem is I love to bet College football because it seems I can always find at least a few lines that I really like.

What gets me is that I feel I have to bet NFL just for the action even though there is so much parity that it is truly had to get a constant gauge on what is going to happen.

I am going to stick to a plan this week and focus on college football. If I have a good day and find something that really pops out at me for Sunday then I will make a single play, but I am really going to try to enjoy my victories this week instead of trying I figure out how to give it back!!

Thanks for the response UNIMAN!!!

BOL this upcoming week.  I always look forward to your picks because usually it leads to me making money!!!

Hey guys, I am in need of some desperate help.  This week is the perfect example of my gambling life. Here is what is happening.

Starting Sunday I look at all the college games for the upcoming week and write down just off the top of my head the games that look good.  There is nothing behind this and it doesn't mean I will bet them it's just somewhere to start.  The as the week goes I do more and more research and then look at what some of the cappers on here post.  I have 3 guys on here that I follow.  Based on their write-ups and my opinions I make my bets up until kickoff.  This is where I run into my issue.

I may have 4 games that I really like bu for some reason I feel I need to bet every penny in my account so I start betting games that I have not researched and justify by saying I will only do half a unit.  But when you bet half a unit 20 times its adds up.  The I will bet a few parlays and justify that by only betting say $10 - $20.  But I will do 7,8,9 and 10 team parlays so in the end I never hit them and after 4 or 5 of those that is another $100 i blow.

So with that being my first issue, my next is that after a game is over and I have won, I will find whatever I can to bet that balance on.  For example, last night after I won the Georgia and Miami game, I immediately took that money and put it on a live bet for Auburn.  Needless to say, that money I had just won was donated back to my sports-book because Auburn did not cover.

I did the same thing today, after I won my 1:00 NFL games, I gave it back based on a stupid live bet I did in the Falcons/Bears game.  So this had me chasing now and I took a huge chunk of my remaining balance and put it on Philly over team total points in the 1st half. 

I am hoping you guys can give me some advice on what to do.  I love to have action on games like tonight since I'll be watching but I know I made a foolish bet for betting as much as I did without any research or anything.  I hope this post makes sense and you guys can understand what I am asking.  Thanks in advance and BOL in the upcoming weels!!

All week I have been looking at the OU/TX game of OU -14 and thought that this is the easiest money ever. I just knew OU would roll and it wouldn't be close, so I throw down my cash and what happens..., Big Fat Loser.

On to the Miami/Cincy game. I see this line come out and lock in Cincy +16 as fast as I could. Being a Miami fan I know that we always play down to the opponent and on top of that, never win by 16 vs an OK team. I figure Cincy to easily cover and possibly win, especially when it is announced Kiel is going to play. Fast forward and what do you know, My "for sure, easy money winner" is down by 28 in the 4th quarter.

This just goes to show that I don't know crap about handicapping even though I love it. I get so much joy from placing my bets all week and then watching football for 12 hours on Saturday.

I just wish I could get to the point that I didn't have to totally rely on everyone else and ride their picks. I mean I will because I like to win, but I would really like to figure out how to pick my games better and figure out what I am doing wrong. I use my Sagarin Ratings, injuries, home field and recent games to try my best and it seems like I am always wrong. Sorry to ramble but I just had to vent.

I love doing this and would love to have a better system so that I was not always just picking losers. BOL to everyone the rest of the weekend!

Kiel is going to play.

Gunner Kiel is going to play for Cincy. That is huge for Cincy. I'm loving Cincy +17 that I locked in!!!!

Yes

Here are my plays for week 7, I am definitely not a pro capper or anything. I take a lot from others on here and combine a lot of research others do to come up with my own. Posting mainly for me to be able to track and get an idea of what you guys think. GL to all this week!!

CMU +10.5
Wash St. +17
TAM -2
TCU +9
Oklahoma -14
Miami -14

CALBEAR-

Just want to say thanks for the work that you do and the time you put in to make your picks. Also, thanks for sharing them on the forum with all of us. I love to have some action on Saturdays but struggle to come up with my own lines, opinions and plays so it's nice to have someone like you to follow.

You along with Megalocks and JimmyDaFreak are some great cappers and I look forward to all you guys picks each week. Stay hot and keep making the $$$$. Thanks again man, your a Beast!!

Megalocks and Thorpe, thank you both for taking the time to respond. I really appreciate you taking your time to help me out. I will now take you guys advice and attempt to apply it this week!

Now to continue to wait for my guys to post their picks so I can keep containing you guys! I have been following MEGA, FREAK AND CALBEAR this year and they are MONEY!!

Does anyone else have a recommendation for any other campers that they heavily trust on this site??

Just an example of how I am confused with the Sagarin ratings system is the Oregon vs UCLA game this weekend. After rounding off both teams have a 87 rating. Then add 3 for home field to UCLA and they have a +3 rating over Oregon, but the spread is Ducks -2.5. It doesn't make sense to me.....or am I missing something?

I'll make it quick, if this is posted in the wrong spot please advise and I'll remove and repost.

I have been gambling on and off for a while. I'm more of a grinder and there are 3 people on here that I follow faithfully and they have done me good. I really don't understand how to come up with my own lines to find value, I tried the Sagarin rating the gs and just don't get it. But what I am running into is that I seem to bet way to much. I can't ever decide which games to pick from the post that are made from the 3 I follow so generally bet them all.

I was hoping you guys could give me some advice on how to cut down on how many games I am betting. I love the action but I am overdoing it. I hope you can give me some insight. They all seem equal to me and I'm just looking for anything I can do to narrow my list. Is there something simple I can do with the Sagarin ratings to help me pick between 2 games I want to bet. Or another idea I could use maybe other than those ratings? Anything that I could do to cut my list from 35 games a Saturday to 15. Thanks in advance and thank you to everyone for all the hard work and write ups you do.