riccio14

I don't get the opportunity to post regularly in the forum like previous years anymore (only 3^rd post this season), but I had a few extra moments today and thought I’d share some thoughts on a total I like tonight beyond the 140 characters that another platform allows for (…and it shouldn't be too hard to find me over there).

For those that do remember my write ups, you’ll know that my handicapping is very statistical based and typically focuses on totals.

Play: Seton Hall / DePaul Over 142

(I locked this in about 2 hours ago and still like it at the current 143/143.5 number)

Multiple factors align tonight to present a situation that sets up for an Over play even more so than season statistics would indicate.  Let’s start with DePaul’s tempo – they enter tonight as the fastest paced team in the Big East with an adjT of 68.4 (#41 in the country) on the season. Now admittedly, their pace has slowed since entering conference play to 64.6 poss / game, but it is still ranks in the upper third of the conference. And tonight should be another opportunity to get out and run as Seton Hall currently ranks 105^th in adjusted tempo nationally.

Second, and probably even more importantly, are their defensive metrics (or lack thereof). They come into tonight as one of only two teams in the Big East (Creighton) that is allowing more than 1.00 ppp. On the season they have an adjD of 1.039 (#217); but that has increased to 1.093 when looking at conference-only games. It should be no surprise that their defense suffers when you consider that they can’t defend without fouling (#315 FT Rate); and if they don’t foul, the shot attempt they give up usually either goes in (#324 2P% allowed), or their opponent grabs an offensive rebound (#325 OR%).

Now let’s look at Seton Hall – and this is where things get interesting. For the season, they have an adjO of 1.098 (#39). Impressively, but even moreso when you consider the fact that they have played their entire conference schedule and the game vs Maine without the services of star freshman guard Isaiah Whitehead.  In those 9 games, the Seton Hall offense became stagnant and was limited to less than 1 ppp four times.  So what was Whitehead’s impact upon his return to the lineup in their last game vs Xavier?  How about a season high 90 points (1.20 ppp), led by his 19/4/3 performance in only 23 minutes. XU coach was even quoted after the game saying, “Honestly, it looked like he never left.”  And lastly, a raw OE comparison shows that SH is averaging 1.07 ppp with Whitehead in the lineup (1.11 ppp if you throw out the disaster vs Georgia); and only 1.05 ppp without him.

But not only will their offense get a boost from having Whitehead back tonight, their defense should be expected to underperform if their previous games away from the Prudential Center are any indication. On the season, the Pirate adjD is 0.963 (#72) --but quickly increases to 1.073 when considering conference-only games. Now take it one step further – SH has allowed 1.13, 0.92, 0.94, 1.17, 1.20, 1.18, 1.03 ppp on defense in their 7 true away games this season (average 1.07 ppp). In essence, Seton Hall’s road defense would rank in the bottom 20% of the country.

So tonight, we get to back an Over with two defenses involved that leave much to be desired; and a Seton Hall offense boosted by the return of its star freshman guard. KenPom predicts 69 possessions. And situationally looking at the statistics, I think it’s more than fair to expect to see 1.07+ ppp from each offense. Based on that logic, we’d be looking at game that should push the upper 140’s at a minimum tonight.

Good luck if you decide to make a play

I don't get the opportunity to post regularly in the forum like previous years anymore (only 2^nd post this season), but I had a few extra moments this morning and thought I’d share some thoughts on a side I like tonight beyond the 140 characters that another platform allows for (and it shouldn't be too hard to find me over there).

For those that do remember my write ups, you’ll know that my handicapping is very statistical based and typically focuses on totals.

Play: Missouri St +4

Since facing Tulsa in their season opener, an interesting dichotomy has emerged with Oral Roberts based on the offensive style of their opponent. ORU enters the game tonight allowing their opponents to hit 38.5% of their 3PA -- #302 in the country. But one must consider that three of their L6 opponents (Oregon St, La-Laf, NMexSt) actually rank in the bottom 25% nationally with respect to 3-point distribution.  And in those three games, the teams only combined to go 13-34 (38.2%) from behind the arc.

Now consider that in the other three games, they faced three teams (Missouri, Milwaukee, Weber St) that are ranked in the top half with respect to 3-point distribution. In those match-ups, these teams combined to go 30-64 (46.9%) from deep – a dramatic increase in shooting volume and percentage vs the teams not known for their 3 point expertise. Moreover (and maybe logically), these teams went on to post ppp of 1.26, 1.14, and 1.07 respectively.

So why does this all matter? Well tonight, ORU faces a Missouri St offense that loves the 3 ball – 38.2% (#83) of their FG attempts come from distance and they get 39.0% (#16) of their offensive output from 3 point makes. But most impressively, the Bears have hit on 45.5% of their three point attempts this season – good for second best in the country!  This all leads to an adjOE of 103.8 ppp, bolstered by an eFG% of 52.8% (#62)

Beyond the statistical match-up, there is also a nice situational advantage in my opinion. On paper, ORU may be coming off its best resume win of the season vs New Mexico St (projected WAC champion). But this win should come with a grain of salt as the Aggies were missing their two most important players: starting G Daniel Mullings and starting C Tshilidzi Nephawe.

Furthermore, we get to back a Missouri St team encouraged by the return of stretch 4 Gavin Thurman over the weekend. Not only does Thurman give the Bears some much needed size in the frontcourt; his shooting skills should only add to the Bears’ offensive strength (he hit 37.1% of his 3PA’s in conference play last year; and was 3-3 from beyond the arc on Saturday in his first game back).

And lastly, Missouri St should come in to the Mabee Center confident knowing that they were able to take away 70-67 victory here last year.

Good luck if you decide to make a play

I don't get the opportunity to post regularly in the forum like previous years anymore, but I had a few extra moments this afternoon and thought I’d share some thoughts on a total I like tonight beyond the 140 characters that another platform allows for (and it shouldn't be too hard to find me over there).

For those that do remember my write ups, you’ll know that my handicapping is very statistical based. First post of the season:

For the rebuilding project, in steps Andre Payne from the NAIA coaching ranks. Will MVSU’s style change with a new coach in place? Based on the preseason quotes from Payne, the answer is “no”. From Blue Ribbon, Payne states: “I’m used to putting up 80 to 85 points a game. We won’t have a lot of size, so we’re going to be an up-tempo team.”  And based on his debut on Friday night in Bloomington vs IU, he wasn’t lying. The Delta Devils lost 116-65 on 81 possessions (allowed 1.43 ppp) to an IU team that will struggle to finish in the top half of the B10 this season.

But that is just one data point. Let’s take a look at the non-conference results from last year versus the opponents they were truly overmatched against. In those 10 games, they allowed 92.5 ppg, only versus Georgia Tech did they not allow 80+ points. Additionally, MVSU and Mississippi St actually played each other last season. The Bulldogs won that game 94-72 on 75 possessions. In fact, the 94 points scored was a season high for Miss St last year.

Now the status of Craig Sword (leading returning scorer for Miss St) for tonight’s game is still unknown as he missed the opener vs Western Carolina.  But situationally speaking, there are several things to like about tonight’s match up despite Miss St only winning the opener 66 – 56 vs WCU. First, despite the low score, they did post 1.08 ppp. Secondly, the Bulldogs attacked the basket and attempted 37 free throws in the game (scoring with no time coming off of the clock is always good when backing an “over”). Third, the pace of that game was not indicative of the style that Ricky Ray has had his Bulldog teams play at since coming to Starkville creates more value. Friday’s game only had 61 possessions. In the previous two years, his teams ranked in the top 75 nationally with respect to pace.

Coming off of 3-15 SEC season, it will be important to build the confidence of the young Bulldog roster early; and tonight’s match-up provides the perfect opportunity for that against an inferior opponent that will allow plenty of great scoring chances. KenPom predicts an 84-62 final on 71 possessions. But based on style and results from the last couple of seasons, I see a final more like 90-65.

Good luck if you decide to make a play

4-3 posting on Covers this season, last post on 2/3

Play: Wyoming / New Mexico Over 128.5

Under Steve Alford the past two seasons, New Mexico was known as a very defensive minded ball club –  ranking inside the top 20 in DE both seasons. In fact, they never ranked outside of the top 100 in his 6 years there.  But now Alford has moved on to UCLA, and in has stepped his long-time assistant Craig Neal.   The defensive intensity has slipped this season with the Lobos entering tonight with the #113 adjD in the country at 1.012 ppp.

But a defensive slip is not the angle for backing tonight’s over.  Where New Mexico has slipped on the defensive side of the ball, they have more than made up for it on the offensive side this season. In fact, this is the most efficient Lobo team on offense since KenPom began posting his statistics and come in to tonight’s match-up with an adjO of 1.141 ppp (#26 nationally).  In fact, through 9 games of the MWC schedule, this year’s New Mexico team is actually the most offensively efficient team the conference has seen since BYU in 2007 (Lobos w/ OE of 115.6 in conference). Though their shooting is average, they don’t turn the ball over (#25 TO%), get to the FT line (#32 FT rate), and share the ball (#21 A/FGM).  Throw in the well-documented home court advantage that The Pit provides and we see a team scoring 1.20 ppp in 4 conference home games.

On the flip side, we have a Wyoming team that plays extremely slow – in fact they are the 5^th slowest team in the country at 60.9 possessions. Not the best team to have involved in an over.  But I believe there is some value in the fact that this actually the most efficient offense (106.0 OE) and least efficient defense (98.8 DE) under Larry Shyatt.  Furthermore, both of these efficiency ratings move in our favor when you look at conference-only statistics:  OE increases to 108.3 and DE increases to 102.3.

These two did meet in Laramie back on 1/8 – an overtime win for New Mexico that saw 128 points in regulation. But one difference between that game and this game will be the absence of Josh Adams, second leading scorer and team leader in assists for Cowboys.   Adams has been suspended one game by the MWC for his actions Saturday vs Utah St.  But these types of situations often bond a team in that one game. Look no further than tweets from Larry Nance Jr (team leader in points and rebounds) on Monday to support that line of thinking: “All of this is just added motivation which is scary for a team like us to have..  We’ll be fine. We’ll be just fine”. Throw in the fact that it is a revenge spot for a home loss in OT, and I think we get Wyoming’s best effort tonight.

Due to their style, there is always the chance that Wyoming games are low scoring.  However, assuming the game sees at least 60 possessions (KenPom predicts 60) and the offensive efficiency that both have demonstrated in conference play, it will not take much to get this over tonight’s total.  Throw in the motivation factor and what should set up as a close game, very likely that a late game fouling scenario sets up as well.

Good luck if you decide to make a play 

3-3 posted record on Covers, last post was on 1/31

Play:  Hampton / Morgan St Over 139

It’s very rare that you get the opportunity to back an Over with two teams ranked in the top 50 of tempo at less than 140 points; but that is exactly what we have here in tonight’s match-up (Hampton #18, Morgan St #42).   And when these occasions do occur, you can be almost certain that there are two inefficient offenses involved as is the case tonight.

But if you dig a little deeper, some interesting trends can be seen that point that scoring 140 points tonight maybe easier than it appears on the surface.  Let’s begin with Morgan St.  For the season, they rank #233 in adjO (1.011 ppp). But this must be taken with a grain of salt as they played a non-conference schedule ranked 40^th in the country. Now that they’ve gotten into conference play and playing similarly skilled teams, we have a team with an OE of 107.1 (second best in the MEAC).  And then there is even more value when you consider the fact they are coming off of two low-scoring games vs snails (NC A&T 64 poss, Del St 62 poss).

Doing a similar comparison with Hampton, we see a team with an OE of 94.7 (#323) for the year. But once in conference play, that increases sharply to 1.024 ppp – bolstered by the best FTA/FGA rate in the conference at 55.7%.

Now one can easily argue that Hampton does bring the best defense in the conference to tonight’s match-up with a DE of 99.4 (#78). In fact, the Pirates have the best eFG%, 3P%, and 2P% defense in conference play.  But this could almost be expected when you consider the fact that 5 of those 8 conference games have been against offenses ranked in the bottom 30 in the country. Looking at the three conference games vs “average” offenses, they are giving up 0.99 ppp. This includes a previously meeting this year vs Morgan St – a 79 possession game where they allowed 1.01 ppp (that game actually saw a final total of 151 points despite a combined 38.4% shooting effort)

Without a doubt, the pace will be there in this game as these are the fastest and third fastest teams in conference play. Moreover, Hampton has only played 1 game since Christmas that played to less than 72 possessions. KenPom predicts 75 tonight. With this amount of possessions, and the assumption presented that both teams’ offenses are not as bad as their season statistics indicate, I think it is fair to expect at least an OE of 99.5 tonight – a target that gets this game into the mid-140’s

Good luck if you decide to make a play 

(and more tempo free thoughts on college hoops can be found at @riccio14)

3-2 posted record on Covers, last post was on 12/20

Had some extra time this morning to put together some thoughts on tonight’s feature match-up in the MAAC

Play:  Manhattan / Iona Over 162.5

Since Tim Cluess arrived at Iona in 2011, the Gaels have possessed one of the most entertaining offenses to watch in the country in my opinion. They play fast, don’t turn the ball over, share the ball, and make shots. This year is no different. In fact, you could argue this is the most offensively proficient team in Cluess’ tenure. Their adjO is 14^th best in the country at 1.170 ppp – buoyed by the 4^th best effective FG%, 11^th best TO%, and 6^th best 3P%.  This is even more impressive when you factor in that Iona played a top 20 non-conference schedule.  

But most know that Iona’s offense is good, and of course is factored into their totals. So what is the angle tonight? To me, the value presents itself when you consider the tempo that each team plays at, factored against the style of opponent that both Iona and Manhattan have faced thus far in conference play.  When looking at conference games only, the MAAC is the fastest paced conference in the country – with each game averaging 68.9 possessions. In fact, 5 of the 11 teams currently rank in the top 100 nationally with respect to pace:  Niagara (#14), Iona (#21), Manhattan (#40), Quinnipiac (#61), and Monmouth (#88). 

The MAAC plays a true balanced schedule with each team facing one another home and away. Yet despite being just beyond the half-way point of the conference schedule, both Iona and Manhattan have only played 3 of the possible 8 games against the similarly fast paced conference opponents.  Despite this, Iona has scored 155+ in every conference game except vs snail St Peters and saw finals of 210, 160, and 168 vs fast paced Niagara and Quinnipiac.  Manhattan likewise saw two of their three highest finals in conference play come vs Quinnipiac.

Detractors of this play could argue that backing an over in this range is risky since it involves a Manhattan team sporting the best adjD in the MAAC, and the only team allowing less than 1.00 ppp (0.937) in conference play.  But when you dig a little deeper, you see that they have allowed 1.00 ppp in their L6. In fact, the five best offensive performances against them in conference have come in their last 6 games; and if it wasn’t for a 51 point on 71 possession stinker put up by Rider, the Jaspers have allowed 1.05 ppp in that span.

Why is this important? Tonight they travel to Hynes to face not only the best offensive team in the conference—but one that just absolutely lights it up at home. Through 10 conference games, the Gaels sport an adjO of 120.7.  But looking at their performances at home is even more impressive with ppp’s so far of: 1.20, 1.53(!!!), 1.25, 1.20, 1.28, and 1.20!

One last angle is a consistent theme that I mention when discussing Over plays and that is scoring while no time is coming off of the clock.  And that trait should certainly come into play in tonight’s game as Manhattan sports the country’s best FTA/FGA. In fact, only 1 other team nationally gets a bigger % of their offensive point distribution from the charity stripe.   But not only should we see the Jaspers at the line tonight, Iona should get their fair share of FTA as well as only 2 other teams in the country have a higher FTA/FGA ratio on the defensive side of the ball.  In fact, 31.6% of the points that Manhattan gives up, comes from the FT line (#3 nationally).

This certainly could go under tonight, but the ingredients are there for a high-scoring, very entertaining game involving two teams that will fight it out down the stretch for the auto-bid from the MAAC.

Good luck if you make a play

3-1 posted record, last post 12/17

Play:  Georgia Southern / Georgia State Over 147

(released this earlier today, 148 still widely available and should not come into play)

This one is pretty straight forward as you have two teams involved that average more than 1.00 ppp on offense, allow more than 1.00 ppp on defense, and play at an average to slightly above average pace.

But there are a couple nice additional angles in this game to support an Over play.  First, Georgia St and Georgia Southern enter tonight with the #276 and #277 adjD respectively in the country, both allowing more than 1.082 ppp. This is rather significant since both have exhibited a propensity to score with ease when facing sub-par defenses this season.  Georgia St has faced 4 teams this year with adjD ranked outside of the Top 150. In those games, they have averaged 1.16 ppp. Likewise, Georgia Southern has also faced 4 teams. In their games, they averaged 1.11 ppp. Based on these factors, there is no reason to believe that both teams don’t play to 1.1+ ppp.  And on that assumption, and with 68 possessions predicted tonight (KenPom), at a minimum we’d see 150 total points.

In addition to that angle, tonight also sets up for an abundance of points from behind the arc.  Georgia Southern comes in to tonight’s game ranked #53 in 3PA/FGA and gets 31.6% (#59) of their offense from deep. This is significant as the Panthers allow opponents to shoot 41.0% from distance (#328) and allow the 4^th most % of total points to come from 3PA’s in the nation. One needs to look no further than their last game where poor shooting ODU was 10-22 from deep.

Good luck if you decide to make a play

2-1 posted record, last post on 12/13

As regular readers of my posts know, I naturally gravitate towards Over plays that typically involve fast paced teams, highly efficient offenses, or highly inefficient defenses. Tonight however presents an opportunity to focus on another angle that I have mentioned numerous times in the past – and that is scoring with no time coming off of the clock.

Play: Manhattan / South Carolina Over 139

Based on the style with which both teams play, there should be an abundance of free throws in tonight’s game. Why you ask? Well let’s start with Manhattan. Only 3 other teams have more FTA / FGA in the country season to date. In fact, the Jaspers get 29.9% of their offense from the charity stripe (#6).

On the flip side, Manhattan struggles to defend without fouling in their aggressive man-to-man defense as only 16 other teams are giving up more FTA/FGA. This results in their opponents scoring 30.1% (#11) of their points from the FT line.  South Carolina on the other hand, struggles just as badly. Their FT rate ranks #324 and opponents get 30.7% (#9) of their offense production from the foul line.

I also think there is some value based on the Gamecocks only having played 5 games so far this season. Their adjO is respectable on the surface at 1.045. But when you dig a little deeper, you realize that they have already played two top 15 defenses (Clemson and Oklahoma St), and Baylor who isn’t too shabby at #49 -- which would skew their offensive statistics down.

Detractors of this play will point to last year’s meeting: an ugly 63-57 USC win on only 59 possessions.  But one must remember that do-everything guard George Beamon didn’t play in last year’s match-up and Manhattan struggled to find an identity the first 3 months of the season without his services (the result was a slow (#316 pace), defense (#27 adjD) minded team). With him back, they once again are playing at a faster pace (#108) and project to compete for the MAAC title.

Based on these factors, and a game that should approach 70 possessions (KenPom predicts 69), there should be every opportunity for both teams to score more than 1 point per possession and get the total over.

Good luck if you decide to make a play

1-1 YTD posted on Covers, last post on 12/10

At first glance, I wasn’t going to get involved in card with only 2 games on tap tonight. But the more I dug into Maryland, an interesting dichotomy began to appear.

Play: Maryland / Boston College Over 143

The Terrapins come into tonight with the #43 adjD in the country, only allowing 0.959 ppp – not the ideal defense to have involved in an Over play. However, these season to date defensive statistics are a bit skewed by two outstanding defensive performances against Abilene Christian (0.69 ppp) and Marist (0.65 ppp) – both teams that had offenses ranked in the bottom 20 nationally.  Remove those games, and Maryland is giving up 1.02 ppp. Dig a little further, and you see that they have given up an average of 1.12 ppp (and never less than 1.00 ppp) in the four games vs offenses ranked in the top 100. And what does BC enter tonight’s game at? You guessed it, in the top 100 as the Eagles are currently #30 in adjO, scoring 1.127 ppp.

On the flip side, Maryland shouldn’t struggle to put the ball in the basket as BC has only held 1 of 9 opponents this season under 1.05 ppp (Sacred Heart).  And with MD nearly averaging 70 possessions per game, and recent games for BC vs fast paced Purdue and USC hitting 68 possessions – I would expect a minimum of 65 possessions tonight (KenPom predicts 66). That possession count with both offenses poised to score over 1.10 ppp gets this game into mid-140’s.

Under backers may point to the fact that last year’s match-ups played to totals of 123 and 127. My argument would be that both teams are playing faster, more efficient on offense, and less efficient on defense this season.

Good luck if you decide to make a play