Ricodamus

The Good:  Woo (SEA)  Pick:  SEA ML (-105)

SEA is 8-0 when Woo starts at HOME.  NYY is only 5-7 in Gil's last 12 starts.

The Bad:  Spence (OAK) on the road  Pick:  OAK/CHC Over 8.5

The OVER 8.5 is 7-2 in Spence's last 9 AWAY starts, and 6-1 in the last 7 in the series.  In his last three AWAY starts vs. NL teams, Spence has a 9.26 ERA (11.2 IP).  Wicks has a 9.00 ERA (13.0 IP), .316 OBA at NIGHT.

The Ugly:  Wind at Coors Field  Pick:  ARI/COL Over 11

Wind is blowing out at 13 mph tonight.  Montgomery has a 10.39 ERA in his last two AWAY starts (8.2 IP), and it looks like this will be his first trip to Coors Field.  Feltner has been solid lately, but he allowed 5 ER to BAL a few games ago.  ARI is the highest scoring team in MLB.

1-2 yesterday.  I'm terrible picking Sat games.

The Good:  Peterson (NYM)  Pick:  NYM ML (+105)

NYM is 14-4 in Peterson's starts.  

The Bad:  COL bats at Coors  Pick:  COL TT Over 5.5 (+105)

The COL TT OVER 5.5 is 5-1 in Quantrill's last 6 HOME starts.

The Ugly:  Bradley (TB)  Pick:  CLE ML (-130)

TB is 1-7 in Bradley's last 8 starts.

BOS did their part.

Cole did his part.

NYY...https://youtu.be/RL-XlVCf41o?si=pT6KROd6QY-DYRUe

@Hulk_Hogan

 I heard the same thing all last week from UK fans.

Memphis (+210)

Purdue (+225)

South Carolina (+190)

1-1 yesterday.  (NYY TT Over 4.5 still got there with Houck not starting, so 2-1 if you decided to play that anyway.)

The Good:  Bellozo vs. NL East  Pick:  MIA/WAS Under 8.5

Bellozo has a 1.54 ERA (23.1 IP) vs. division teams.  The UNDER 8.5 is 4-0 in those starts.  Similarly, Corbin's starts vs. division teams have gone 3-0 to the UNDER 8.5 since July 1.  Since 6/13, Corbin's starts immediately following OVER 8.5 totals are 7-0 to the UNDER 8.5.

The Bad:  Cole (NYY) vs. BOS  Pick:  BOS/NYY Over 8.5

The OVER 8.5 is 8-1 in Cole's last 9 starts vs. BOS and 3-0 in Bello's last 3 starts vs. NYY.

The Ugly:  Burnes following an Under 8.5 total  Pick: BAL/DET Over 8.5

Since 5/13, Corbin's starts following an UNDER 8.5 total are 7-0 to the OVER 8.5.  This is a system play, so it doesn't matter which starting pitcher DET puts out there.

For anyone who does NCAAF, I just posted a G/B/U post in that forum.

The Good:  UK at HOME vs. UGA  Pick: Kentucky (+22)

Since 2006, UK (+17.5) is 8-1 at HOME vs. UGA and the oddsmakers are giving us +4.5 for free.  UK got demolished last week by South Carolina because they were looking ahead to this game.  Vandagriff has the cheat code for Georgia.  I just saw that their CB Harris got arrested for reckless driving, which won't help their focus.  Give me the HOME DOG at NIGHT.

The Bad:  Riley Leonard (ND)  Pick:  Purdue (+7.5)

How many QB's have 60+ pass attempts for 0 TD passes and 2 INT?  One.  Riley Leonard.  Now he faces a defense that only allowed 154 yds to Indiana State in a 49-0 shutout and had two weeks to prepare for this game.  Since 1997, Purdue (+7.5) is 7-2 in this series at West Lafayette.

The Ugly:  VT in Norfolk, VA  Pick:  ODU (+15.5)

Old Dominion has won both HOME games in this series outright.  ODU has held both of their previous opponents to Under 23.5 points, including @South Carolina who went on to put up 31 points @UK the following week.  VT is 0-2 ATS.  

@Thinkb4ubet

 Houck did not start, which voided my pick.

 BAL/DET understood the assignment.

 Nola did not understand the assignment.

@R1729amanujan

 DET has a good bullpen.

@JoseAlonso787

 Bullpen game?  Sure.  Under 8. 

Looks like there might be a SP pitching change.  My app now says Montero?  Whoever it is, the Under is probably still the play as long as Eflin starts for BAL.

 2-1 yesterday, 7-2 the last 3 days.

The Good:  Quintana (NYM), Nola (PHI)   Pick:  NYM/PHI Under 8.5

The UNDER 8.5 is 6-0 in Quintana's AWAY starts since 7/1, and is 10-2 in Nola's last 12 HOME starts.

The Bad: Hitters vs. Eflin (BAL), Hurter (DET)  Pick:  BAL/DET Under 8.5

The UNDER 8.5 is 6-1 in Hurter's starts and 9-3 in the last 12 of the series @DET.  Since 6/22, in games following having allowed 3+ ER, Eflin has a 1.80 ERA (25.0 IP).  Coincidentally, Eflin's only start vs. DET also yielded a 1.80 ERA (5.0 IP) last season.

The Ugly:  Houck (BOS) since ASG  Pick:  NYY TT OVER 4.5

The opposing TT OVER 4.5 is 9-0 in Houck's starts since the ASG.

@Cuno144

 Revised pick after the COL starting pitcher change.  Check the thread (#7 post)

@football_007

 Yes, Montas's teams are 5-1.  I was sweating the SD/SEA Under 7.5 in the 9th inning as I was writing that.

 SD/SEA understood the assignment.  Good thing we bought the hook.

 3-0 yesterday.  5-1 the last two days. 

The Good:  Skubal (DET)  Pick:  COL/DET Under 4.5 (1st 5 innings)

Skubal at HOME vs. NL teams has yielded a 1.01 ERA in 26.2 IP this season.  The Under 4.5 (F5) is 6-2 in Feltner's last 8 AWAY starts (2.15 ERA in that span.)

The Bad:  Gray (STL) vs. Reds  Pick: CIN ML (+140)

CIN has Sonny Gray's number (0-3 with a 5.82 ERA in 17.0 IP).  CIN has been alternating wins and losses for the last 7 games @ STL, and they are coming off a loss last night.

The Ugly:  Birdsong (SF)  Pick:  MIL ML (-130)

SF is 0-6 in Birdsong's last 6 starts.  MIL is 5-1 in Montas's last 6 AWAY starts.

 Tanner Gordon understood the assignment with flying colors.