Ricodamus

The Good:  PHI bats (Pick:  COL/PHI Over 9.5)

Wind will be blowing out at 17 mph with a high humidity of 81%.  Senzatela allowed 9 hits to TB and was lucky to avoid runs from crossing the plate.  PHI will be sending balls out of the park.  Taijuan Walker's 2024 season ended with his last 8 games going Over 9.5.

The Bad:  BOS/BAL bats (Pick:  BOS/BAL Under 9)

The stats look bad for Houck and Morton after their first game, so I expect regression in their second outing.  The Under 9 is 10-4 in the last 14 games @BAL.

The Ugly:  CIN/MIL vs. LHP (Pick:  CIN/MIL Under 4.5 F5)

The line is 7.5 for a reason.  CIN is 4 for 24 (.167) vs. LHP.  MIL is not much better, 20 for 96 (.208) vs. LHP.  Cortes is back at home and will be laser focused on his first 3 pitches of this game. 

The Good:  Skenes/Pepiot (Pick:  PIT/TB Under 3.5 1st 5)

Two aces going against struggling offenses.

The Bad:  Leiter (TEX) (Pick:  CIN ML)

Leiter overachieved at HOME vs. BOS.  Let's see how he performs on the road against an ace.

The Ugly:  Lopez (MIN) vs. CWS (Pick:  CWS ML 1st 5)

Lopez is 0-4 1st 5 vs. CWS in his last 4 starts.  I don't trust MIN's offense to repeat what they did last night.

Oof, I think I need to wait another week or two to get going.  This early in the season, we are all just completely guessing with no current data established yet.

The Good: Trevor Williams (WAS) (Pick: WAS ML 1st 5)

Williams was 6-1 last season and only allowed Over 1.5 runs twice in 12 starts. Berrios should be better this time around, but I think he will still give up more runs than Williams will in the first 5 innings.

The Bad: Casey Mize (DET) (Pick: Mize Under 4.5 K's)

In 10 AWAY starts last season, Mize went Over 4.5 K's just one time.

The Ugly: Will Warren (NYY) (Pick: ARI ML 1st 5)

Corbin Burnes has pitched gems vs. NYY all 3 times (1.42 ERA in 19.0 IP, 22 K) but has never gotten the run support to win those games. Warren had a 10.32 ERA last season, leading to his 0-3 W-L record. ARI should have no trouble grabbing an early lead.

Hit Parlay:

1. Pasquantino (6 for 8 vs. Bibee)

2. Espinal (3 for 5 vs. Ray)

3. Goldschmidt (3 for 5 vs. Civale)

4. Mullins (2 for 4 vs. Bassitt)

The Good:  Nola vs. WAS (Pick:  PHI ML)

PHI is 7-0 in Nola's last 7 starts vs. WAS (1.69 ERA in 37.1 IP).  Mitchell Parker got rocked by PHI for 9 ER in just 3.0 IP last August.

The Bad:  Bradley (TB) vs. NL teams (Pick: COL ML)

Since July 1 last season, Bradley had a 9.38 ERA in 24.0 IP vs. NL teams.  Feltner's W-L record looked way worse than it should have been.  Feltner limited opponents to Under 2.5 runs in 12 of his last 15 starts of the 2024 season.

The Ugly:  Stroman/Civale (Pick:  Over 8.5)

The MIL TT has gone Over 3.5 runs in Stroman's last 2 starts vs. MIL (8.00 ERA, 2.11 WHIP in 9.0 IP).  Civale has a 9.88 ERA in his last 13.2 IP (3 starts) vs. NYY.

Leg 1:  Love Anytime TD (100% hit rate) [-135]
Leg 2:  Leonard 150+ passing yds (85% hit rate) [-198]
Leg 3:  Lovett 25+ receiving yds (93% hit rate) [-188]
            -Went 0 rec for 3 targets last week.  Definite bounceback spot here.
Leg 4:  Stockton 150+ passing yds (100% hit rate*) [-225]
             *Beck hit 150+ in all 12 games.  Georgia is still Georgia.
             -ND allowed 360 to USC QB, 274 to LOU QB, 269 to GT QB.

Parlay pays out (+400).  Good luck!

NYR/FLA understood the assignment.

Shesterkin has allowed 3 goals in each of his last 3 games vs. FLA.  Bobrovsky has allowed 3+ goals to NYR in his last 6 games on HOME ice.  NYR has given up 5 and 6 goals in their last two AWAY games, FLA has given up 4 goals in both of their recent HOME games.

Pick:  NYR/FLA Over 5.5

Freiermuth understood the assignment.

@vaas187

 Circa Sports

"The Good:"  WR receptions vs. KC  Pick:  Pickens (PIT) Over 4.5 rec 

KC limits receiving yards at the expense of giving up short receptions.  Here are the last 3 games...

      vs. HOU -- Nico Collins (7), Tank Dell (6)

      vs. CLE -- Jeudy (11)

      vs. LAC -- Jordan Palmer (6), Quentin Johnston (5)

"The Bad:" RB Rec yds vs. KC  Pick:  Warren (PIT) Under 19.5 rec yds

KC ranks 3rd best at limiting RB receptions (49).  Warren has hit 19+ rec yds in 6 of the last 7 games, and yet this line is sitting at 19.5.  No thanks, Vegas, I'm not taking the bait.  Here are some notable KC games...

     vs. Mixon (HOU):  14 rec yds (1 of 2 targets)

     vs. Hubbard (CAR):  2 rec yds (1 of 5 targets)

     vs. Irving (TB):  10 rec yds (3 of 3 targets)

"The Ugly:"  KC defense vs. TE's  Pick:  Freiermuth (PIT) Over 28.5 rec yds

KC ranks dead last in receiving yards allowed to the TE position.  KC's defense is #7 in fewest rec yds allowed to the WR position, so Russ will probably be looking Freiermuth's way a lot.  Based on his most recent two games you would think this line would be closer to 19.5 rec yds, but it has been set all the way up at 28.5 rec yds.  Follow the money.  Also, you might want to take a stab at his anytime TD (+400).

Merry Christmas!!

 Devils understood the assignment.

The Under 6.5 is 9-0 this month in Devils games, including the first game being a 5-1 W vs. NYR.  Quick's last start vs. NJD as a Ranger, he held them to 1 goal.  Markstrom's last 4 starts vs. NYR went Under 6.5.

Pick:  NYR/NJD Under 6.5

Texas Defense has never allowed more than 204 passing yards all season.  The 2nd highest allowed was Carson Beck (175 passing yards).

Pick:  Klubnik Under 218.5 passing yards (Fanduel)

Columbus is just 2-7 covering the puck line on the road since November.

Pick:  WPG (-1.5)

  5-2 on O/U picks in the last 7 days.

Husso has a .818 SV%, 4.92 GAA in 3 games.  In relief of Talbot, he allowed 3 goals in not even a full 2 periods of play.

Before the BOS @ DET game on 11/23, the last three times that Swayman held DET to 1 goal, the next game of the series he allowed 4 goals.  Guess what he did in his most recent start vs. DET -- he held them to 1 goal.

Pick:  DET/BOS Over 5.5

@Athalon

 That was a disgusting beat. 

Zibanejad Over 0.5 pts is 12-4 (.750) in the last 16 games of this series.

Hischier Over 0.5 pts is 10-2 (.833) in the last 12 games of this series.

Parlay:  Zibanejad 1+ point / Hischier 1+ point (+167)

 5-1 in O/U picks this Thanksgiving weekend. 

Shesterkin allowed 3+ goals in his last 3 HOME starts vs. NJD, which all went OVER 6.5.

Markstrom has allowed 3+ goals in 6 of his last 7 AWAY games inside the U.S.

NYR are 5-1 to the Over 6.5 in the last 6 HOME games.

Pick:  NJD/NYR Over 6.5