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Pkleves,

Have more faith in your defense (haha!).  GB was ranked 13^th to 15^th in total defense last season (depending on what you read) and were in the top ten in a couple major categories (3^rd down defense is very important).  Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think you’re looking at a defense like the Buffalo Bills or Seattle Seahawks, but as said, they have key pieces to field a solid defense.   They do have some very good players that can get to the quarterback (obviously a key ingredient) and have enough depth on the back-end to make plays.  I think Clinton-Dix will take the next step personally (I understand he has to tackle better – but that will come with time).  I also think Hyde is key to what they want to do, so he has to stay healthy.  You also have to remember, when you have Aaron Rodgers and that offense, the defense doesn’t necessarily have to take as many chances as other teams.. .. make teams drive the field with consistency (and just don’t give up the big play).    

First.  Saying that Rodgers has “struggled” v Vic Fangio is an inaccurate statement.  Rodgers faced Fangio 4 times when Fangio was the DC for San Francisco.  In those four games Rodgers had a 64.4% completion percentage, averaged 284 yards passing, while having an 8/3 TD/INT Ratio.  And you must factor in that this was going up against a San Francisco defense that was the best in the NFL at the time. 

Second.  Saying that GBs defense is “garbage” this year is also inaccurate.  At this point, all we have to gauge is their preseason, and the Packers never fielded the defense that will be starting this coming Sunday.  Not mentioning the precautionary steps taken with Matthews, the Packers experimented with many different combinations in their back-end due to the loss of Sam Shields.  Therefore, they had a couple different rookies playing the corner and nickel spots to determine what combination would look best.  Now.  I’m not saying that the Packers defense is top 5 (but probably top 10).  They still have really good players at all three levels, and have two things that you need in order to field a good defense; a solid corner and pass rusher(s).  And it doesn’t hurt that BJ Raji is back in the fold, slimmed down and ready to go.

Third.  Saying that the Packers where 3-3 on the road last year doesn’t apply to this game.  Green Bay has OWNED Chicago in Chicago.  Since Cutlers arrival in Chicago, the Packers have played the Bears 12 times (6 in Chicago). and are 11-1.  Furthermore, road games can’t be calculated as just numbers.  You have to look at who they played as well.  For instance, take the Saints game for example.  The Packers lost to the Saints last season on the road.  But it was a Sunday night game with New Orleans needing a win badly due to their poor start.  Not many teams can just stroll into a national televised night game, in that atmosphere against Drew Brees, and come out with a win.  Jay Culter is no Drew Brees.  The Packers also lost to the Seahawks on the road last season.  And, I don’t think I have to go into grave detail on how hard it is to play in that Stadium, especially the first game of the season when Seattle was raising the Super Bowl Banner.  So basically, stating that Green Bay was “such and such” on the road last season can be mis-leading.  It’s not like they went on the road and played Jacksonville, Oakland and the Browns.  You have to take into consideration the road losses and the situation behind those losses.

Fourth.  Mike McCarthy has stated multiple times this fall camp that Green Bay needs to get off to a fast start (due to their recent struggles the last 3 years at the beginning of the season)..  ..There is reason for this.  Green Bay understands that to get back to the Super Bowl the playoffs need to go through Lambeau (going back to Seattle in order to make the Super Bowl is not the ideal situation).  Thus, starting off the season on a high note with a win vs Chicago is the first step.  Now, does equate to a “cover” (?) well, no.  But, it does lead to a more focused team, understanding the gravity of the game, even though it may only be the first game. 

Lastly.  Chicago just doesn’t match up well with Green Bay.  Period.  Their defense is still too porous against Rodgers and because of that they have to rely on Jay Cutler to match scores.   This is where the Bears get in trouble.  All the news coming out of the Bears camp is that Adam Gase has installed a more “ball control” offense, with Cutler hitting his check-downs more and taking less chances with the football; stressing “No Turnovers!”  That’s great.  The problem is, what happens when you’re down 10 to 14 points?  The pressure will be put back on Jay Cutler, where he hasn’t exactly been stellar.  Sure, the Bears can run Forte and try to keep Rodgers off the field, and that could work.. ..for awhile.  But at some point, Rodgers is going to get his and Chicago will need to rely on Culter to make plays, something he has been incapable of doing time and time again.

In the end, this game isn’t about home underdogs, road favorites or even Jordy Nelson’s injury.  It comes down to the match up.  And the matchup is awful for Chicago (which the trends obviously point out).  Last season, the Packers outscored the Bears 93-31 in both contests.  That is a 62 point difference.  Now all of a sudden in one year with a new coach, brand new system on both sides of the football, an influx of new players learning those systems, the loss of experienced leaders and the same quarterback who had a 75.5 QBR with 3 touchdowns and 4 interceptions in the two meetings last season; we are supposed to believe that Chicago has made up a 62 point difference?  I guess that is for the gamblers to decide, but I know one thing… ..  If you  sort through all the trash, the trends point to Green Bay.