Ronistotle

Looking at this one these teams line up pretty well, I am not seeing a huge difference between the Run/Pass offense and defense. UNC does have the upper hand in running offense, sitting at 14th in the nation averaging 239.4 yds/game while WF allows 180.3 yds/game (74th in nation). 

Looking deeper into the offense/defensive it is really tight with UNC getting the slight advantage almost across the board.

With all this said, when WF covers (and they do at a great rate 83.33% on this year) they cover by an average of 13.9 points, and the one ATS loss was by 5 points. UNC is a different story covering 57% (4/7) of the time (not terrible) however when they failed to cover it was by an average margin of -12.5 points. These games were against only marginal opponents in my book (FSU, UVA, and BC)

I put my money in last night and hate giving a line that isn't current (now at 11.5) but that also makes me feel better that I got a nice line and sharp money (hopefully) is driving line movement.

WAKE FOREST +13.5 (.75 Units)

WAKE FOREST TEAM TOTAL OVER 27.5 (.75 Units)

Also thinking about sprinkling a bit on the ML. BOL to all, hope you have a great day

FYI I will be posting automated write ups on certain games (both teams at least 4 games) and make my picks based on the numbers etc. This is my newer account (previous "theMONEYteam22") since Covers limiting the "new account" (created 2019) to 5 posts a day I may post/reply with both. Sorry for the confusion.

Posted NCAA Plays = 1-0 (5 Units)

Posted NFL Plays = 0-1 (.5 Units)

I have been having a great NCAA season so far, hoping it continues... NFL another story anywayyy

First Game & Favorite Game of 12PM Slate - Wake Forest @ UNC:

Away team WAKE has covered 5 of 6 (83.33%) games vs the spread.

They covered these games by an avg of 13.9 points.
During losses they lost vs spread by an avg of -5.0 points.

WAKE has scored the following point totals:

[38, 23, 40, 66, 42, 13]

Averaging 37.0 over all games, 33.67 over the last 3, and 41.8 over the last 5.

They have surrendered point totals of:

[14, 16, 23, 14, 45, 37]

Allowing opposing teams an avg of 24.83 points for all games and 17.67 over L3.

___________________________________________

Home team UNC has covered 4 of 7 (57.14%) games vs the spread.

They covered these games by an avg of 10.5 points.
During losses they lost vs spread by an avg of -12.5 points.

UNC has scored the following point totals:

[56, 41, 48, 28, 56, 26, 31]

Averaging 40.86 over all games, 48.33 over the last 3, and 45.8 over the last 5.

They have surrendered point totals of:

[24, 44, 21, 31, 45, 22, 6]

Allowing opposing teams an avg of 27.57 points for all games and 29.67 over L3.

@OverAmbassador

  GL sir, I was split on this one. I will say points are never a bad thing when (knock on wood) it appears a team like FAU struggles to score. BOL.

Away team ECU has covered 3 of 6 (50.00%) games vs the spread.

They covered these games by an avg of 14.5 points.
During losses they lost vs spread by an avg of -12.0 points.

ECU has scored the following point totals:

[21, 30, 23, 44, 29, 28]

Averaging 29.17 over all games, 24.67 over the last 3, and 29.4 over the last 5.

They have surrendered point totals of:

[38, 34, 27, 24, 49, 51]

Allowing opposing teams an avg of 37.17 points for all games and 33.0 over L3.

___________________________________________

Home team CIN has covered 4 of 6 (66.67%) games vs the spread.

They covered these games by an avg of 20.5 points.
During losses they lost vs spread by an avg of -3.0 points.

CIN has scored the following point totals:

[38, 49, 42, 28, 24, 55]

Averaging 39.33 over all games, 43.0 over the last 3, and 36.2 over the last 5.

They have surrendered point totals of:

[10, 10, 13, 7, 10, 20]

Allowing opposing teams an avg of 11.67 points for all games and 11.0 over L3.

After the dust settles:

0-1 (-.5 Unit)

I hope someone took the Indy -6 (+200) alt line!

@Slick_Jimmy

 GL to you Jimmy -I have to agree teasing the home team is the slick move (pun intended).

I am quite the sucker for a juicy alt spread dog though

@OverAmbassador

Best of Luck!! 

Im thinking about also taking Tennessee Team Total over 23.5 as well

@OverAmbassador

 Thank you sir what are you taking on the game??

FYI to all, I will be creating automated write-ups for certain NFL and NCAA games that jump out. Much of the analysis is done ATS so please keep this in mind. 

After reviewing the above info, I can see that the Indy offense has not been very consistent in that they are really hit or miss. Given they either cover by 12 points or lose ATS by -10.

For Tennesse they have been on a downtrend offensively, averaging 29.0 across the entire season, 30.4 L5, and 22.67 over the last 3. However the Indy defense has begun to soften, allowing 24 points per game, 4 more than their season average of 20. This while their last few matchups were not vs the strongest offenses (Baltimore, Detriot, and Cincy respectively).

With this said, I trust Tennessee at home more than Indy even though they are covering at a lower clip (37.50% to Indy's 50%). Given I think Tennessee will cover, I will roll with the alt spread Titan's -6.5 (+220), since their average cover margin is 10.5 and Indy's avg ATS loss margin is -10.12.

I would also consider Colts alt spread -6.5(+200) if you like Indy given the opposite is also true, when Indy covers they cover by a wide margin (+12pts & across a larger sample size of 4 games covering ATS).

My pick = TITANS -6.5(+220) for .5 Unit

Away team IND has covered 4 of 8 (50.00%) games vs the spread.

They covered these games by an avg of 12.75 points.
During losses they lost vs spread by an avg of -10.12 points.

IND has scored the following point totals:

[10, 41, 31, 23, 19, 36, 28, 20]

Averaging 26.0 over all games, 27.33 over the last 3, and 24.8 over the last 5.

They have surrendered point totals of:

[24, 21, 27, 32, 11, 7, 11, 27]

Allowing opposing teams an avg of 20.0 points for all games and 24.0 over L3.

___________________________________________

Home team TEN has covered 3 of 8 (37.50%) games vs the spread.

They covered these games by an avg of 10.5 points.
During losses they lost vs spread by an avg of -6.0 points.

TEN has scored the following point totals:

[24, 20, 24, 42, 42, 31, 33, 16]

Averaging 29.0 over all games, 22.67 over the last 3, and 30.4 over the last 5.

They have surrendered point totals of:

[17, 31, 27, 36, 16, 30, 30, 14]

Allowing opposing teams an avg of 25.12 points for all games and 25.0 over L3.