RoonRoon

What is going on Covers community?!! Wednesdays can drag.  Wednesdays can be a long day at work. Wednesdays can just plain suck.  NOT WHEN THE FUN BELT IS ON!!! LET’S MAKE IT HAPPEN!!!! This is a great opportunity to improve on O/U numbers.

CFB 32-20-0 +5500  CFB O/U 7-6 53.85%

South Alabama (+15.5) vs Troy Total 49 

Why I like over 49 points  

Both Teams Had Bye Weeks

Both teams have had more than a week off.  This is especially great for Troy coming off their upset victory vs LSU. Troy will get a chance to focus on the Sun Belt and have less of a trap game. The bye week also gives time to rest and get players healthy. South Alabama’s top passer Dallas Davis is coming off a shoulder injury and is expected to play.  The time off also allows South Alabama to regroup the offense after they fired their OC Bryant Vincent two weeks ago. 

The Market Has Caught Up To Both Teams

Troy and South Alabama’s O/U record has leaned to the U in 2017. Both teams combined are 1-9 when it comes to the total in 2017.  The market has adjusted for this number.  Of the five games South Alabama has played this year all 5 totals closed over 50 points. Troy has had 4 of their 5 games close over 50 points for the total.  South Alabama averages close to 67 plays a game, and Troy averages 72 plays in 2017.  The market has finally come to a nice number 49.  With the time off along with the 49 points I expect both teams to have a great offensive performance.   I also expect close to 140 plays in the game combined. I have picked up the line at 49.5.  Anything lower is a great value play!!!

That is definitely a concern that the secondary is a little banged up, but I just don't see the value of making a play on the Cardinals for +3 points. I do think this was a over reaction to that Denver game.  They keep that game close vs. Denver we are talking -4 or -5 for Dallas tonight.  I also think that Dak is kind of getting exposed in these first couple of games which doesn't do well for my pick.  2-0 Dallas might fall into a trap tonight but I think a Dallas team that just got embarrassed is going to swing the hammer tonight. 

I got the Cowboys -2.5. I just can't see any value playing Arizona at +3 or even +3.5. That Denver lost had a lot of luck involved with the lightning delay (throwing off the offense).  Dallas has more skill on offense, and the defenses are not as far apart as people might think vs. Arizona.  Am I missing anything here? Just smells funny.

YTD 12-6-1