RP14

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replied to Spurs vs Blazers Game 1 Play in NBA Betting Quote Originally Posted by Newyorker18: In the last 4 meeting spurs has never blown them out. Blazers just have too many 3 point shooters and can attack the inside easily as well with Aldrigde and lopez.. It's the 1st game and we don't know what to expect but a blowout will be shocking. Spurs has only covered once against Dallas in the 7 games. BOL Those 4 matchups are more or less irrelevant. Game 1 in November - new Portland scheme that the league hasn't seen, typical Pop punting away a road game in November tinkering with new stuff for the hell of it. Game 2 in January - no Danny Green, Blazers win Game 3 in February - no Tim/Tony/Kawhi and the Spurs win in Portland on a road b2b Game 4 in March - Spurs up 16 at halftime then Aldridge gets hurt in the 3rd, Spurs win by 13. None of the above games present any valuable information as to why Portland is the side here. By the way, I can't stress this enough - STOP CONSIDERING THE POINT SPREAD. You have to ask yourself if you think team x or y wins the game, that is usually how these playoff games work. I personally do not think this is a game Portland can win 1 out of 5 times, hence the Spurs are the play. View Post \| View Thread	RP14	9	May 06, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Spurs vs Blazers Game 1 Play in NBA Betting Spurs - 4 1H risking 1.1 to win 1 Portland Under 49.5 1H risking 1.1 to win 1 Portland Under 100 risking 1.1 to win 1 Also expect the Spurs to surgically dominate this game in the halfcourt, Pop knows they stand to gain nothing from picking up the pace against this team. Also a psychological O/U angle -- you just watched Portland play an entire series in the 212-215 range and you just saw the Spurs score 120 in Game 7, like that they opened this on the lower end and let people bump it up. Only reason I'm not on U206.5 is because I'm hesitant to believe the Spurs won't score at will all night. View Post \| View Thread	RP14	9	May 06, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic Spurs vs Blazers Game 1 Play in NBA Betting Spurs -6.5 risking 2.2 to win 2. I believe that many of the defensive tricks Carlisle had up his sleeve against the Spurs were the Blazers' only shot of stealing a game in San Antonio. You have to stay home in the corners and dare Parker to beat you in the midrange/the bigs to dominate in the paint. It was a sound strategy that worked for a while, but San Antonio eventually conquered it handily. Additionally, going small was another tactic Carlisle tinkered with and San Antonio figured that out too. Point blank, the Blazers' roster and playing style is very similar to that of Dallas. They run very similar sets offensively, and have only those same tricks to use defensively to give them a shot. Unfortunately, the Spurs have had all kinds of practice against this style of defense now, and seem to be hitting their stride in a way that should scare Blazers backers. One more point - the Dallas bench gave the Spurs fits all series. Unfortunately, Portland has nobody of that ilk, Spurs should be able to extend leads with their foreign legion. Coming off the biggest moment off every single player on the roster's career on a Friday night with a weekend to celebrate before flying cross country doesn't help Portland much either. Wouldn't be too surprised if they get rolled by 15+ by a vastly superior squad in each of these first two games. GL guys. View Post \| View Thread	RP14	9	May 06, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to At +415, the Nets are the most valuable NBA Series play I've seen since the Warriors beat the Mavs in NBA Betting Quote Originally Posted by bobmaloogatimesfive: I'm amazed at the series price movement also -- I have never seen that much money move a line ever Have no way of proving this, but would assume that this is a lot of tiny money moving the price, wouldn't expect any whales to be lining up to lay -500ish on a series future. I think it's very telling that the Heat only opened at -400 for this series, that alone implies to me that Vegas is taking the Nets very seriously. View Post \| View Thread	RP14	35	May 06, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to At +415, the Nets are the most valuable NBA Series play I've seen since the Warriors beat the Mavs in NBA Betting Little note - if you do happen to like the Nets tonight at +8, there's no reason for you not to sprinkle a little on the ML. In the playoffs, the odds of a dog covering without winning are historically very slim. Actually, in any situation really, both regular season and playoffs. View Post \| View Thread	RP14	35	May 06, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to At +415, the Nets are the most valuable NBA Series play I've seen since the Warriors beat the Mavs in NBA Betting 0-1, -2.2 ytd. About as wrong as can be on that Thunder play last night, Brooks and the players were completely unprepared for the transition from Grizz offense to Clips offense. View Post \| View Thread	RP14	35	May 06, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to At +415, the Nets are the most valuable NBA Series play I've seen since the Warriors beat the Mavs in NBA Betting Very foolish of me not waiting 24 more hours, never seen a series price move 200 cents when it opens at below -1000. Game 1 Play: Nets +8 risking 1.65 to win 1.5, Nets +320 ML risking .5 View Post \| View Thread	RP14	35	May 06, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Thunder vs Clippers Game 1 Play in NBA Betting Quote Originally Posted by Mardyball22: Sorry going with clips +5.5 an bought a pt so safe call with +6.5. OKC wins but won't cover 5.5 You've secured about a 1.5% better chance of covering the spread by paying 18% more for your bet. Even if you hit on 6 exact this is literally the worst way to bet on this game. But GL sir. View Post \| View Thread	RP14	5	May 05, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to At +415, the Nets are the most valuable NBA Series play I've seen since the Warriors beat the Mavs in NBA Betting Quote Originally Posted by TennisTodd: Wasted money. Ask yourself why is a team who beat the Heat 4 out of 4 times this year a +400 dog in the series. Because Vegas opened them only as a +300 dog (just like Memphis vs OKC) and schmo's pounced on the Heat -400 in a 2nd round matchup assuming it's easy money. It isn't. View Post \| View Thread	RP14	35	May 05, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic Thunder vs Clippers Game 1 Play in NBA Betting Oklahoma City - 5 risking 2.2 to win 2 The Clippers went through the Sterling fiasco, played a 48 minute battle on the road in game 6 which was decided by a point, then went back home and played an epic game 7 that required the full 48 minutes to finish off. Doc high fiving people in the stands, the relief for these players given its only the second series they've won with CP3, and the pure exhaustion of it all. Now they have to fly to OKC on one day's rest to play against a team they match up horribly against. They have nobody reasonable to throw at Durant, and if they decide to solve that by tilting the entire floor his way KD is too smart to not exploit that with his well developed passing. Also, Blake is 4/20 this year on postups against this team (courtesy of NBA stats tool), it's going to be a welcomed play by the Thunder defense which spells doom for LA. Yes, the Thunder also needed to win 2 in a row to even get here, but they've been home in their own beds for 4 straight nights now, they'll be mentally regrouped for this situation. I never factor in the "how many points" thing here, I don't think the Clippers can win this game tonight so I'm laying the points. GL guys. View Post \| View Thread	RP14	5	May 05, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to At +415, the Nets are the most valuable NBA Series play I've seen since the Warriors beat the Mavs in NBA Betting All that text and I managed to not include the play: Brooklyn Series +415 risking 2 units (standard size play for me). View Post \| View Thread	RP14	35	May 05, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic At +415, the Nets are the most valuable NBA Series play I've seen since the Warriors beat the Mavs in NBA Betting Hey guys, have some thoughts I felt like sharing regarding the upcoming Heat vs. Nets series, particularly around why I feel that the Nets at +415 are an extremely valuable play. Firstly, let's get this out of the way early in the thread. The Heat are the defending champs. I'm not here saying they're a false favorite or that the Nets are going to roll through them, I'm simply pointing out that I believe this will be a very close, hard fought series, and one that could very easily see Brooklyn heading home for Game 6 up 3-2. At this price it's an auto play. 1. The Brooklyn offense is a very very difficult matchup for the Miami defense. The Heat's defense is predicated on hedging HARD on the pick and roll, often times even 28 feet away from the basket. This team relies on its foot speed after the 4 on 3 develops to A. get the opponent to panic and throw the ball away or B. simply force a contested jump shot due to how quickly Miami recovers. The Brooklyn offense doesn't rely on pick and roll, almost at all. This team plays its offense inside out, and strangely enough it manages to do so by playing shooting guards and small forwards on the inside. Note: these are the kinds of systems Miami often struggles against. Brooklyn doesn't have a Dirk or a Tim Duncan, but the point is that opponents have found playoff success in the past against Miami with a post-centric offense. This style can wear Miami out, it's a grind. 2. Miami has the best player in the world, that isn't changing in this series. Thing is, Brooklyn has fantastic floor balance and depth. Brooklyn has solid, experienced players at every position on the floor, many of whom are capable of putting the ball on the floor, posting, hitting 3's, or getting into the paint. This is also very important for the Nets defense, as Pierce, Johnson, Anderson, Livingston, and Kirlenko can all be rotated onto Lebron and Wade as required. There is no one guy being fed to the wolves here with the Lebron responsibility, the Nets have a very interchangeable defense that can switch ad nauseum and not be at a disadvantage while doing so. 3. Brooklyn's biggest weakness is its rebounding, particularly how many offensive boards they surrender. This is a non-issue against Miami. Spoelstra makes it a point for the Heat to not chase the offensive glass - similar to Pop and Rivers, Spo has consistently preferred for his teams to get back in transition instead. 4. Pierce and Garnett have the biggest rivalry with Heat in the entire league, still. Yes, Indiana poses a big threat too, but Pierce and Garnett have a massive chip on their shoulders every time they play against the Heat. No idea what tangible value that creates in this series, if any, but these guys are singlehandedly capable of swinging a game with their mental tricks. Additionally, Garnett is very very well rested. If and when he is needed in this series, his minutes can in fact be upped. 5. The whole 4-0 in the regular season thing is worth something I suppose, but to me the most important thing is how many minutes of on-court experience this very team has built up playing crunch time, close games in the last 5 mins of the 4th quarter against the 2014 Heat. The Nets are very familiar with the opponent and have shown to not have any inferiority complex whatsoever. The first game may be a tough turnaround off Game 7 and not having seen Miami with Wade in for a while, but nonetheless I think this will be a long, drawn out series and that a Miami win is no sure thing. Similar to how Memphis makes OKC play their least preferred style, Brooklyn brings this out of Miami. I think a fair price on this series is Brooklyn +170, and 245 cents of value make this one of those rare future plays that are actually worth investing in. Good luck to you guys if you decide to take a stab as well. View Post \| View Thread	RP14	35	May 05, 2014 View Post \| View Thread

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