scoop82

just looked at that....looks like the payout fees are sort of crazy. 50 or 60 bucks min?

so this board is full of players who are either not living in the US or have a local bookie?

Ok sorry guys.  I am sure this has been discussed at length, but what books and payment methods work for US players.  I know the rules are fuzzy and there is a lot of confusion about this, but i would love to be able to get back into online sports betting, but my one card, a mastercard, keeps getting rejected.

Any recommendations about books, payment methods or anything else?

thanks guys

Can anyone see a flaw in the logic? Just curious if anyone has tried this approach

No problem.  Just looking for the best way to keep my heart out of my picks, and make it purely mathematically based. 

Hey folks.  Haven't post for some time, but I recently had a thought.  If you could identify a quality system or 2 (picking vs the spread at 54-55%), and identify a system that was struggling (picking sub 50% ATS) and then compared there picks, would you be able to identify the differences and then key in on those?  The idea is to determine why the "good" system is tracking 6 or 7% points higher than the "bad" system.

So, if a system picks 100 teams and is right on 55, and a 2nd team is right on 48 it has to be because the good system was more correct when selecting differently on individual games than the bad system.  When they pick the same, they will either be right or wrong together.  When they pick differently they will start to separate and better system will emerge.

So, given that line of logic, and some simple on line tracking of various systems, here is what you come up with for this weekend.  Note that I grabbed the data off a popular tracking site and focused only on the 2nd half picks %.

The top 4 systems picked this way:

3 of 4 like Cincy+4
3 of 4 like Det+10.5
3 of 4 like Denver+8.5
3 of 4 like Atl+3

The bottom 4 systems went this way:

Split on Cincy/Houston
3 of 4 like New Orleans -10.5
3 of 4 like Denver+8.5
4 of 4 like Atl+3

So what this all distills down to is this:

The good system likes Detroit+10.5, while the bad system likes New Orleans.

The good system likes Cincy+4, while the bad systems are split.

Both systems like Denver+8.5 and Atl+3

The key assumption that has to be considered here is that this is entirely based on the theory that systems who have a history of picking at a certain % will continue to do so, which means that the solid system will continue to pick at a higher % than the weak.  If that is the case then the difference has to come from the games for which they pick differently.  We shall see.

So.....I have not really been doing a lot of messing around with sports capping/wagering of late....but I figured I would reload my account and have some fun.....

Long story short is that my old NBA system....with lots of numbers crunching is hitting at a crazy rate....

5-0, 4-3 and 6-1 in the past few days....

that being said....here is what the system says for today.....enjoy...

NY +2.5
Toronto +4.5

I hope I dont go 0-2 and look like a douche now....but....the system has been on fire...so ride it out.

but where is the documentation that either an expert or a covers forum member has a high rate of success in ncaa hoops?

...that it is possible to hit 54+% in the NCAA hoops.  All the experts, documented on certain websites are hovering between 48-51%. 

So, does anyone know anywhere where there is documented evidence of someone consistently picking ncaa hoops at a profitable rate?

i am adding Florida -23.5

I hate to be a buzzkill for your game 'o the year but my system says that N Illinois should actually be favored by a touch over 8pts.  Meaning, they don't qualify in my system but if I had to pick I would not be on Toledo today.

Good luck though...I am not playing this game anyway....

The system went 12-5 last weekend in the NCAA and 7-2 in the NFL.

Here are today's winners!

64-44 59.2% on the year....today's plays

Western Kentucky +8
Marshall +21
Houston -17.5
Utah St +8
Minn +17.5
Ohio -14
Missouri +7
Ohio St -14
Tex Tech +10.5
Baylor +1
Fla International +9.5
Boston Col -3
Air Force -10.5
Kentucky +13.5

59.8% on the year..
12-5 last weekend in NCAA
1-0 so far this week

South Florida +2.5

another winner....

i forgot to mention that I only took this at +9.5.  At +8.5 it wasn't qualified in my system.

so my official pick is Tulsa +9.5

Tulsa

My line says Boise should only be a 5.9 pt fav

ended up
6-1 in the NFL
12-5-1 in the NCAA

18-6-1 ATS combined.  All with a system that I have automated to crunch the numbers in excel and spit out winners in about 10 minutes.  I had to use excel to speed up the process or my wife would have raised hell.  Now I am spitting out winners and all it takes is a few minutes per week.  Yet the amount of data that goes into each pick is quite large.

5-1 so far.  Indy looking to make it a 6-1 NFL week ATS after a 12-5-1 weekend in the NCAA.

The system rocks.

• Oakland at New York Giants New York Giants - 16.0
  10/11
• Cleveland at Buffalo Cleveland + 6.0
  1/1
• Cincinnati at Baltimore Cincinnati + 9.0
  10/11
• Pittsburgh at Detroit Detroit + 12.0
  1/1
• Atlanta at San Francisco San Francisco
  10/11
• New England at Denver Denver + 3.0
  11/10
• Indianapolis at Tennessee Indianapolis - 4.5

Lots of games qualify this week....here we go...

• Giants -10
• Jax +3
• Buffal0 +0
• Jets +8
• Cincy -7
• Balt +2
• SD +6.5
• SF -10
• Den +3
• Oak +9

I am 4-3 ATS so far.  I dont typically even begin attempting to cap games during the 1st few weeks, so this really the 1st week that I have any confidence in my NFL picks.  NCAA has been amazing so far, despite only going 6-6 yesterday.  Lost some late close ones....