sherwood88

You are able to make 200 picks so please make sure that you do not exceed 200 picks

AGAIN, once your 200 picks are in, you are done and TIES DO NOT go towards those 200 picks

For instance if you are 100-97-3, you would still have 3 pick left. 

JDM - Actually the picks are not hidden. Just click on pending and they are available to see as soon as someone makes their picks. 

Baltimore -113 over TAMPA BAY With Alex Cobb out with forearm tendonitis and with Alex Colome recently released from the hospital after suffering from pneumonia, Nathan Karns moves up the pecking order. Karns, a big-bodied and aggressive hurler, was obtained from the Nationals organization in February 2014. He steadily rose through the Nats minor league system and reached Washington for three starts in 2013. He wasn’t effective in any of those starts. Karns spent most of last year in the minors and when he did get the opportunity at the big league level, he went 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA in 12 IP for the Rays. Karns has some lofty minor-league strikeout totals but cannot maintain it at this level because he cannot throw strikes consistently with his secondary offerings. That has hitters sitting on his 90-95 MPH fastball. Karns is now a 27-year-old career minor-leaguer with just 24 innings at this level. His 6.00 ERA over those 24 innings to go along with 10 walks, tells the story of a career minor-leaguer with promise that can’t throw strikes and that is running out of time. We all know how that usually works out.

By contrast, Wei-Yin Chen throws nothing but strikes and he locates them well. The Orioles had their most successful season in years in 2014 with one of the major contributors being Chen, who went 16-6 for the division-winning team. Chen’s skills were nearly identical in both halves, and thus highlighted the effect hr/f can have on one’s ERA. A mediocre strikeout rate limits Chen’s upside but he's a stable cog who's getting better. In 18 innings this past spring, Chen walked one batter. We certainly trust Chen more than Karns and we trust Baltimore’s offense more as well. The Orioles plate discipline will force Karns to throw strikes when he’s inevitably behind in the count, which is a recipe for disaster. 

Atlanta +115 over MIAMI Mat Latos missed a good chunk of the 2014 campaign due to elbow and knee injuries, but managed to own a 3.25 in 102 innings pitched. One wouldn’t know it from the shiny ERA, but there are some pretty serious concerns about the 27-year-old. Latos’s 4.02 xERA gives a much better measure of his effectiveness. It’s also worth noting that his skills took quite a nosedive as well. The decrease in strikeout rate is very troubling considering the significant drop in swing and miss % from 11% in ’13 to a run-of-the-mill 8% in ’14. Perhaps even more concerning is that his velocity fell 2 mph to 91 mph. Though Latos’s control improved to just 2.3 walks/9, his first pitch strike % suggests it could creep closer to 3. Additional free passes are never a good thing, especially when combined with a shrinking swing and miss rate. After boasting a groundball % of 43-46% over the previous four seasons, Latos allowed far more fly-balls in 2014. Luckily, he wasn’t hurt badly by the longball (7% hr/f), but that’s certainly something to watch going forward. Latos underwent offseason stem cell surgery on his right elbow hoping to regrow tissue and cartilage. He is now healthy, but his velocity remains down. There are enough concerns here that make him a very risky wager.

Alex Wood had an excellent follow-up to his 2013 debut, despite being shuffled in and out of the rotation and back-and-forth to the minors in the 1st half. Metrics are elite across-the-board, though his first pitch strike was a little soft in the 2nd half. Wood finished his sophomore campaign with the 15th best ERA of all qualified starting pitchers in the majors. After breaking into the majors in 2013 as a reliever, Wood has made a smooth transition to the starting rotation and his performance was backed by elite skills. His first pitch strike % and swing and miss % support slight gains in his strikeout rate and control. Wood’s dominant start/disaster start splits show how remarkably consistent he was last year and his xERA was a little higher than his ERA, but still strong at 3.20. One big contributor to his success has been the increase in his swing and miss stuff on his knuckle curve—a pitch he learned during spring training 2013 from Craig Kimbrel and Jonny Venters—to 19% in the second half of 2014 from 10% in 2013 and 12% in the first half of 2014. He was also nearly equally effective against both left-handed and right-handed batters en route to a .651 opponent OPS. Wood just keeps getting better and is a much better option as a dog than Latos is as the chalk.

Colorado +131 over MILWAUKEE The Brewers made Kyle Kendrick look like Greg Maddux yesterday. Normally we wouldn’t put too much weight on one game but perhaps we should pay a little more attention to fading the Brewers often right now. This is a team that suffered an epic collapse last year and the hangover might still be lingering. Milwaukee shot out to a 20-7 record that nobody saw coming and they held the division lead for 150 days. The Brewers stumbled to a 9-24 finish, becoming only the fifth team since divisional play began in 1969 to lead its division for at least 150 days and fail to make the playoffs. With a playoff berth on the line, the offense completely disappeared in September, averaging a meager 2.73 runs per game. This is still a free-swinging lineup that the opposition will continue to exploit. Much of the good work achieved during the 150 days in first place was wiped out by the epic meltdown and it might not be over. A 10-0 loss to open the season doesn’t exactly instill confidence either. Matt Garza continues to be viable mid-rotation starter but that may be short-lived, as there are plenty of chinks in the armor. First, he missed time again, as an oblique strain cost him a month. His velocity, strikeout rate and swing and miss rate have dropped three years in row. Garza’s xERA trend hints that his string of eight straight sub-4.00 ERA's may soon come to an end. Garza's K rate, which was once a major strength, continued its descent in 2014. His poor swing and miss rate trend doesn't bode well for a big rebound, either. His overall skills were a far cry from 2011's peak and the xERA trend confirms there's no growth taking place under the hood. On the surface, Garza's 2014 numbers were pretty much in line with previous seasons. However, three-year declines in strikeout rate, xERA and line-drive rate all say that he's skating on thin ice as he enters his age-31 season. Sprinkle in the team he pitches for and the park he pitches half of his games at and Garza becomes instant fade material when favored.

Jordan Lyles is a pitcher that won’t attract much attention right now. However, he continues to possess some hidden upside. Check out his skills against RH bats: 7.8 K’s/9, 2.6 BB/9, 59% groundball rate. He continues to struggle against lefties but has been working on that exclusively. Lyles is still very young, as he turns 24 years old in October. With a tweak against lefties, he could show some nice profits in 2015. Remember, a broken left hand cost him two months and his first-pass BPI scan is unimpressive. But if you squint, there are some rays. Lyles is a heavy groundballer, which keeps his team in the game and adds to his declining disaster start chart. He has youth, pedigree and now some added confidence on his side after a brilliant spring in which he allowed just eight hits in 21 innings and posted an ERA of 0.86. This is perhaps the best value on today’s board and one we surely are not going to miss.

St. Louis +136 over LOS ANGELES Lance Lynn is too good to pass up on when being offered a tag like the one here. Lynn has thrown three shutouts over his last six starts and one of those came at that bandbox in Colorado where he allowed three hits in eight innings. Lynn just keeps getting better and with another tweak or two he could become a top-3 starter in the entire league. Last September, he was MLB’s most effective starter. Back in spring training of this year, Lynn was the most dominant pitcher in any camp. His 15.1 K’s per nine this past spring was 20% higher than any other SP with at least 15 IP. Lynn’s Achilles Heel in the past has been struggles against LH hitters. He’s taken a giant leap against them this season while same-sided bats have very little chance against him. Lynn has a 60% groundball rate on three of pitches but his 28% groundball rate on his four-seamer makes his overall GB rate of 45% look average. A tweak there, a tweak against lefties and Lance Lynn will absolutely dominate. He’s close, as he’s improved in both areas, he has a 2.90 ERA overall and he’ll face a Dodgers lineup that will likely only have two left-handed bats in the lineup.

Zach Greinke has an almost identical 2.89 ERA as Lynn. In terms of skills, there really isn’t much that separates these two starters. Greinke has more K’s and a higher strikeout rate but he has a higher WHIP than Lynn. Still, Greinke has few weaknesses and remains one of the best in the game. However, Lynn is also one of the best and he’s not the one spotting a significant tag. Once again we turn to value, as Lance Lynn is very capable of throwing a gem and defeating any team at any time. Overlay.

KANSAS CITY/L.A. Angels over 8½ +101 The Angels’ bats remained hot last night with another six runs in the opener of this series. L.A. has now scored six runs or more in L.A. has now scored six runs or more in four straight and five runs or more in seven of their past nine games. Extending that streak against Yordano Ventura is a distinct possibility. Ventura is showing serious signs of fatigue. In April he struck out 31 batters in 30 frames and in May he whiffed 28 batters in 27.1 innings. However, his K rate in June is way down with just 14 K’s in 27 frames. Ventura is coming off back-to-back games in which his pitch count was over 100. This will be the second time this season that he’ll start after successive pitch counts of 100 or more and the last time it happened back on May 15 and May 20, Ventura was whacked by the Astros in his subsequent start. Ventura’s xERA over his past six starts is 3.89 and he’ll now face one of the hottest hitting teams in the majors.

The Royals scored eight last night and this strong hitting lineup takes a big step down in class here. Hector Santiago returned to the Angels rotation on June 10 after a brief stint with Triple-A Salt Lake where posted a disastrous 6.43 ERA over three starts (14 IP). Santiago has yet to win a game as an Angel (0-7) and has struggled with his control with four walks every nine innings he pitches. Santiago has one of the worst groundball/line-drive/fly-ball splits in the league at 30%/27%/43% and he has just two quality starts in nine tries this season. Hector Santiago is rotation filler for now. His chronically shaky control and high fly-ball and line-drive rates give him a high blow-up risk while his fastball speed has declined for three straight years. Santiago’s surface stats (which aren’t that great to begin with) disguise some of his brutal skills but a monkey dressed in silk is still a monkey. Expect some crooked innings from both these offenses.

Cincinnati +106 over SAN FRANCISCO Matt Cain’s xERA never bought into his sub-3.00 ERAs in 2011 and 2012 and it has finally caught up to him. Over his last 42 starts which cover 30 starts last year and 12 this year, Cain’s ERA is 4.41. Cain has surrendered eight jacks over his last seven starts. At AT&T he is 1-3 with an ERA of 4.50. He’s coming off a home start against the weak hitting Padres that saw him surrender six runs in seven innings. His skills with runners on and have been horrible (4.5 K’s/9, 4.1 BB/9, 38% groundball rate) and only a tiny 19% with runners on has prevented further damage. Cain and the struggling Giants are too big a risk to trust as the chalk.

Alfredo Simon has walked five batters and struck out 22 over his last 34 innings. An elite 16% swing and miss rate over his last three starts strongly suggest an uptick in strikeouts is forthcoming. Simon’s skills are all trending the right way. His groundball rate is up from 35% to 50% over his last five starts and his WHIP has dropped to 1.09. In 15 starts this season, Simon’s 13 pure quality starts represents the best quality start % of any pitcher in the NL with 10 or more starts. The Reds are hot with three wins in a row and six wins in their last seven games and this is a great opportunity for them to keep it going.

ARIZONA/San Diego over 9 +106 Arizona has won three in a row at home while scoring 30 runs over that span. It’s unlikely that Eric Stults is going to slow them down. Stults is the epitome of a lefty soft-tosser. His four-pitch mix makes up for his 87-mph fastball but it's his pinpoint control that makes him (barely) playable from time to time. Stults has issued just eight walks in 51 frames but he’s only struck out 25 batters. He puts the ball in play and so he must rely heavily on good fortune and great defense for any chance of success. That might work at Petco but on the road Stults’ risk goes way up. For starters, Chase Field is the second most hitter-friendly park in the NL (+10% runs scored). In his career at Chase Field, he is 2-3 with a 5.57 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 32.1 IP. It’s not just Chase Field either, as Stults has always been hit hard on the road, where in his career he is just 12-20 with a 4.62 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. In five road starts this season, Stults is 0-4 with a 5.18 ERA, a .313 BAA and he’s also allowed five jacks in 24 innings. The D-Backs figure to get their fair share here.

Wade Miley brings a mixed bag to the table. The PROS are a confirmed rise in his strikeouts and he’s displayed a groundball mastery all of last season and much of this season too. The CONS are that his exquisite 2012 control looks flukish; ditto the command. Miley has walked 25 batters in 68.2 innings. He’s been taken yard 10 times overall but at home he’s been taken yard seven times in five starts. At Chase Field in those five home starts, Miley is 1-4 with a 7.14 ERA with a BAA of .286. Furthermore, current Padres have hit .299 against Miley with a OPS of .790 in 134 combined AB’s. Two very hittable pitchers hook up at this extreme hitter’s park and we should see some crooked numbers against both.

Houston +121 over KANSAS CITY The Astros have won three straight while outscoring the opposition 22-7 over that span. They took the opener of this series last night by a score of 9-2 while knocking out Yordano Ventura in the third inning. The Astros are displaying power, they have speed and they have an enthusiasm about them that is unmatched. Now they get to face Jeremy Guthrie. Guthrie is another one of those pitchers that must rely heavily on good fortune because he doesn’t walk many and strikes out few. He has a lousy 29 K’s in 66 innings and that low K rate is supported by his awful 5% swinging strike rate. One can safely predict that the speedy Astros will be aggressive on the base-paths and wreak havoc on Guthrie’s inability to keep runners off. Guthrie’s general lack of dominance can be seen in his 39%/16% dominant start/disaster split over his average career. Guthrie is pure fade material when he’s favored and pitching for the Royals does not give him any extra appeal.

The Royals are dead last in so many key offensive categories. Their 20 jacks are last in the majors, as is their HR total at home, which is now at nine. K.C is also dead last in extra base hits, meaning they are a singles hitting team that usually has to string together three hits in an inning to score. The Royals have two win over their past seven games and will now face a good looking rookie that they’ve never seen before. Collin McHugh has come out of nowhere to post a nifty 3.32 ERA and 1.03 WHIP after 38 IP. They are marks that have been accompanied by full skill support that include 9.7 K’s/9, good control and a rising groundball rate. His high strikeout rate is backed by an elite 13% swinging strike % and he’s been just as effective against both RHB and LHB. His key has been two dominant pitches: slider (16% swinging strike rate) and curveball (18% swinging strike rate). In addition, his four-seam fastball (10% swinging strike rate) and changeup (8% swinging strike rate) are more than just show pitches. In three road starts, McHugh is 1-1 with a 1.80 ERA, a .194 BAA and a BB/K split of 4/23 in 20 innings. Win or lose, this is a must play because there is simply too much value on the Astros to skip it.

Baltimore +110 over MILWAUKEE Matt Garza continues to falter. Signed to a big contract to be the Brewers #1 starter, Garza has been the Brewers worst starter and that’s not likely to change. The warning signs just keep coming. Garza’s swinging strike rate has decreased in each of his last six starts. Over that same stretch his groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile of 31%/24%/39% screams to stay away. In his last start against Atlanta, Garza walked three batters and struck out one. Over his last five starts his BB/K split is an alarming 14/21. Garza is a pitcher in peril. He started last season late as he recovered from 2012 elbow injury. His K rate didn't come all the way back and it’s now getting worse.  With his 2011 peak plainly in rear-view mirror, the question is whether that elbow injury left him at this lower level permanently. Judging by his poor and declining skills, we say he’s not close to regaining his old form. Garza is so overpriced here.

Wei-Yin Chen is a mid-rotation stalwart who gives the Orioles innings with an acceptable ERA and a handful of wins. Chen is 5-2 with an ERA of 4.08 but his xERA of 3.87 is a better barometer of his skills. In four of his past five starts, Chen has allowed two earned runs or less. In 53 innings he’s only been taken yard four times. His ERA is slightly inflated due to unlucky hit and strand rates but again, his xERA says he’s very reliable. Chen has also done a better job of keeping the ball on the ground and is coming off three starts with an elite groundball rate of 53%. It’s also worth noting that the Brewers are hitting just .239 against lefties and offer up no value whatsoever as the chalk in this one.   

Chicago +165 over ATLANTA Atlanta has scored one run or less in six of its last 10 games. Over that span they are batting .204 and are a major league worst in many categories including runs scored (17), hits (66) and slugging % (.313). Atlanta has just one win over its last nine games and remains a huge risk as the chalk in this price range. Julio Teheran is doing a great job with a 1.80 ERA and 0.88 WHIP after seven starts. Although Teheran is solid, regression is forthcoming because he’s not as dominant as his ERA suggests. Teheran has 33 K’s in 50 innings. Good but not great. His groundball/fly-ball split is 40%/42%, which is decent but certainly not great. Teheran has an unsustainable 87% strand rate and a very low and unsustainable 21% hit rate. Last season, Teheran had a 4.91 ERA in two starts against the Cubs and while he’s very capable of dominating them this time around, it may take only two or three runs to get us to the cahier’s window.

If you evaluate Jason Hammel in terms of ERA, 2012 now looks like a blind squirrel finding a nut. But if you look at skills, 2012 gets validation from 2009-10. So what happened in 2013? Well, Hammel may have just never been healthy. He had pre-season knee surgery, an illness in June and a DL stint for arm problems in second half. If we give him a pass for last year his profile over his career begins to look a whole lot better. Hammel has a Julio Teheran like BB/K split of 9/32 in 41 innings. He also has a strong swinging strike rate of 11% and a groundball/fly-ball split of 45%/39%. Hammel comes in with a skills supported 2.43 ERA and in his last start at Turner Field he threw a one-hit shutout. Overall the Braves have struggled against RHP with a .227 BA and .647 OPS and it would come as no surprise if they scored little here and lost again. Definite overlay.

Arizona -½ +115 over CHICAGO (1st 5 innings) Brandon McCarthy had an ugly 5.54 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in April, causing him to be one of the league’s most undervalued pitchers right now. Truth be told, McCarthy's skills were fantastic in April with 8.2 K’s/9, outstanding control and an elite 55% groundball rate. A 34% hit rate, 65% strand rate and crazy 27% hr/f caused his surface stats to implode. McCarthy has even added two MPH to his fastball from 2013 to this point in 2014. McCarthy has 40 K’s in 44 innings and his xERA of 3.16 is 1½-runs lower than his actual ERA of 4.67. He’ll now face a White Sox team that has struck out more times (97) than any team in the league over the past 10 games. McCarthy is an excellent buy-low target.

Arizona has won 5 of 7 and just completed road series wins over both S.D. and Milwaukee while doing some damage against some very good pitchers. The Diamondbacks now get their easiest assignment in some time when facing Andre Rienzo. Rienzo has appeared in 4 games this season with 3 of those being starts. In 18 frames, he’s walked 10 and struck out 10. His swinging strike rate in his starts has been 4%. In his last start he walked four and whiffed two in 4.2 innings at Cleveland. Rienzo also has a fly-ball bias profile to go along with a WHIP of 1.56. However, the most fortunate part of his profile is that he has yet to lose with two victories and a no-decision. A starting pitcher with skills this bad cannot keep winning games. This is one of the biggest starting pitching mismatches on the board but it is not priced as such, prompting us to step in and play the value.

Washington +105 over OAKLAND The Athletics have lost six of their last seven at home and overall they have dropped five of their last seven. Furthermore, the A’s are coming off a long day after splitting a DH against the Mariners. In Tommy Milone’s five starts this season the A’s are 0-5. Milone himself is 0-3 and that doesn’t bode well against a Nationals team that is hitting .313 against lefties this year, the second best mark in the majors. As none of his pitches top 90 mph, Milone relies on location and pitch mix. ERA and xERA both indicate a decline in skills. In 28 frames, Milone has walked 12 and struck out 13. He has an ERA of 5.86 and at home his ERA is 4.50. Lots can go wrong with all those fly-balls and line-drives and without much upside we can continue to expect replacement-level performances out of this replacement level starter.

Doug Fister makes his first start of the year and will be on a strict pitch count of 100. That’s fine by us, as the Nats pen is third best in the majors and Washington has outscored the opposition 82-45 after the sixth inning this season. Fister's ERA has risen each of the last two seasons but only slightly so there is no reason for concern. Fister's stable skills point to continued success. Fister continues to possess excellent control and his heavy groundball rate will keep the ball in the yard as seen in his consistent hr/9 history. Fister's xERA trend from 2011-13 is extremely stable making he and the Nats a much better option taking back a tag than Milone and the A’s are spotting one, especially after a double-header yesterday. 

Cleveland +101 over TAMPA BAY (1st 5 innings) The Indians offense has risen from the dead with 17 runs scored over their past three games. The Tribe also hung a 12 on the South Side one week ago. Overall, Cleveland has won five of seven and they now become playable against Jake Odorizzi and the struggling Rays. Odorizzi went 0-1 with a 3.94 ERA in 30 innings for Tampa last year. At times he looks ready for the Show but beware, as he has a history of dropping skills on first exposure at each level before a recovery and we’re seeing lots more evidence of that early this season. Odorizzi has a four-pitch arsenal with a 91-mph fastball but he has just one pure quality start in six tries this season. Too many balls have led to too many counts in the hitters favor and the result is a 1.81 WHIP and a 6.83 ERA. Odorizzi’s groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile of 37%/23%/40% doesn’t exactly scream invest either. As soon as Jeremy Hellickson or Alex Cobb returns from injury, chances are that Jake Odorizzi will be the odd man out. 

Cory Kluber’s skills are all on positive trends. Kluber’s strikeout rate, swinging strike rate, command and groundball rate are all up and his walk totals are down. Kluber’s xERA says more growth ahead. He did skirt some line-drive danger last season and his past includes ample base runners, but second half dominant start/disaster start split plus April this year says he’s grooving and getting better. Kluber has 48 K’s in 45 frames. He’s whiffed 13 batters and walked two over his last 13 innings and over that span his swinging strike rate of 19% was the highest in the majors over two consecutive starts. Kluber offers up as much value in this spot against Odorizzi as any pitcher we’ve seen this season.  

Y-T-D record = 48-50  (+14.58 units)

All plays are 2 units

Cubs +100 over WHITE SOX Travis Wood has a 3.25 ERA and 1.25 WHIP through six starts. In five of those six starts he’s allowed three runs or less and all of his skills are supported by his xERA of 3.53. Wood’s 37 K’s in 38 innings is supported by his 10% swinging strike rate, which is up two points from last year. His control is also trending the right way, as he has issued just seven walks. Wood has been steady and is certainly worth backing but this choice is more about fading John Danks.

Danks is getting progressively worse each season. He went 4-14 with a 4.75 ERA in 138 innings last season. Danks returned in mid-May last season from a year off (shoulder) but left his velocity on the DL. This season in 36 innings, Danks has an alarming K/BB split of 20/21. His fastball tops out at 88 MPH and his swinging strike rate over his last two starts is 5%. Batters are making contact on 90% of his pitches when he’s in the strike zone and that’s the worst mark in the majors for pitchers with at least four starts this year. Danks has a xERA of 5.53 to go along with a groundball/fly-ball split of 38%/42%. There is nothing in Danks’ profile that is appealing and until he shows us something different he’s an automatic fade when favored.

Cincinnati +145 over BOSTON There’s really not a lot to like about the Cincinnati Reds. This is a ball club that has more flaws than Oscar Pistorius’ defense. From their defense to their offense to their bullpen to their inability to score key runs with RISP, the Reds are as frustrating to watch and/or wager on than just about any other team in the majors. That said, we can’t refuse this take-back on Mike Leake against Jake Peavy. A steady dose of groundballs and strong control provide Leake with a nice floor. Only two of Leake’s 37 starts since the beginning of last season have been disastrous. That tells us that the Reds have a chance to win every time Leake starts. Leake’s groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile of 57%/16%/27% is further proof that he’ll almost always keep his team in the game and has the ability to work through innings quickly. He seldom walks anyone, he has a 1.04 WHIP and his 3.53 ERA is right in line with his xERA of 3.49. If we were to describe Leake with one word it would be “reliable”.

Jake Peavy is anything but reliable. Pay no attention to Peavy’s 2.87 ERA because it is driven by extremely lucky hit and strand rates of 25% and 87% respectively. That low hit rate and high strand rate are both unsustainable. Peavy is precisely the reason you don’t purchase surface stats. His skills have been on a steady decline for two years running and they’ve never been worse than they are right now. Peavy has a 4.48 xERA overall and a 5.02 xERA over his past two starts. As a fly-ball pitcher with poor durability, with worsening control (21 BB in 36 innings) with a home in the AL East, Peavy's risk outweighs his reward. A big correction in Peavy’s ERA is coming.   

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