simple3

simple3
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created a topic Bears vs Eagles Player Props
in NFL Betting
At first glance it appears Phillys pass defense sucks and their run defense is good, funnily enough it's the opposite.

Philly have played a pass heavy schedule, teams pass against them a league high 66.87% of the time, that of course means teams run against them a league low 33.13% of the time.

Yet when you dig a little deeper they only allow 6.9 yards per pass attempt, a respectable 12th in league. On the other hand they allow 4.7 yards per rush attempt, 21st in the league.

Bears are one of the most run heavy teams in the league, rushing on 46.2% of their offensive snaps.

Jordan Howard got it going late in the season and with Kyle Long back in week 17 he had his best game of the year, Nagy is going to feed him the rock all day and I expect him to easily clear the over 60.5 yards rushing prop on offer.

If you can get a Nick Foles vs Mitch Trubisky h2h passing prop I love Foles, while Bears have the better defense (both pass and run) Philly is a pass heavy team passing on 61.62% of their offensive snaps compared to just 53.8% for Chicago. Foles has been playing well and his average passing yards per game is way higher than Trubisky's (283 vs 230) so I'm not sure why some books are offering a h2h with Foles only slightly favored.

GL all 
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simple3 3
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replied to Seahawks Run Defense
in NFL Betting

Will have a thread on Bears game later
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simple3 2
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created a topic Seahawks Run Defense
in NFL Betting
Gives up 4.9 yards per rush attempt, 3rd worst in the league. They are ranked 13th in total run defense because they do a good of shortening the game by keeping the ball and playing at a slow pace but this looks a big mismatch with Zeke.

I'm looking at Zeke props, over 20 carries, over 92.5 rushing yards, over 128.5 rushing & receiving yards combined.

These seemed to be based on his season average BUT he's playing a BELOW average defense and he has said he expects his biggest workload of the year.

Good luck all 
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simple3 2
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replied to Picking the Board - Week 9
in NFL Betting

bets2win do you remember the aussie fella im talking about. he always used to talk about playing golf also

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bets2win 5
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replied to Picking the Board - Week 9
in NFL Betting

bets2win was a top covers capper in 2012 i think it was. he got so hot.

 

do you remember that aussie geezer who used to say he was having a pint and LIMING it not liking but LIMING it. I can't remember his name but those were the days. That fella was up to f all with his picks but he was great chat. Reminds me of the aussie plug from sportingbet on youtube back in the day that called gronkowski gronski. The fella was baked out of his mind but he was great chat just like the liming pint fella. 

 

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bets2win 5
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created a topic Scoring increase
in NFL Betting
Hi guys, haven't paid close attention to NFL but I've just seen the scoring average is way up from 21.7 to 24.1 points per team. Is there any explanation for this? Will it continue? 
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simple3 2
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replied to ***Western Conference Game #3
in NBA Betting
Good stuff. Really hard to see how GSW can be stopped now that Steph is awake. Harden & CP3 don't appear to have what it takes to be winners. Capela is being exposed massively as well. As KD said awhile back, his job is made easy catching lobs from Harden & CP3 every game. Although he got some lobs tonight they were at fairly meaningless junctures of the game and his rebounding and shot blocking is non existent 
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AussieDownUnder 12
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replied to Steph Curry Prop
in NBA Betting
Harder than I anticipated and he scored 27 points before he got his 4th three but got the job done 

They got him great looks in the first quarter but he went 1-6 then he found his rhythm in the 3rd quarter.  
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simple3 7
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created a topic Steph Curry Prop
in NBA Betting
So Curry's struggles have obviously been well publicized which is great because now we know Curry and the team are going to address this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=4m-E37lNoQk

https://youtu.be/BHPCH3MWzS0?t=277

Steph is averaging 4.7 3s per 36 minutes this year and 4.9 at home, last year that was 4.4 and 5.0 at home. 

In last years playoffs he shot 4+ threes in 11/17 games (65%) and 6/7 in home games.

His two home playoffs games this year he shot 5-10 on 3s in 27 minutes and 3-6 in 37 minutes, so 50% in both.

With an extra focus on getting him looks I really like over 3.5 made 3 point shots.

This highly correlates with going over 24.5 points (76%) on last years regular season data (larger sample size than this year due to injury) so if you can't get the 3 point prop, over 24.5 is a good bet still.

Oh and if you were wondering, he scored over 24.5 points without making 4+ threes in 9/35 (25%) of games last year. 



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simple3 7
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replied to Will Houston use their own death lineup?
in NBA Betting
https://www.slamonline.com/nba/pj-tucker-small-lineup-best-league/

#useitmore
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simple3 8
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replied to Will Houston use their own death lineup?
in NBA Betting

 

Ariza, Gordon, Harden, Paul, Tucker in 10 minutes tonight = 125.2 ORTG, 95 DRTG, 30.2 net rating

That was their 2nd most utilised line up

Ariza, Capela, Harden, Paul, Tucker in 12 minutes = 114.5 ORTG, 133.6 DRTG, -19 net rating

 

Also in game one:

Capela, Gordon, Harden, Paul, Tucker in 6 minutes = 126.9 ORTG, 96.4 DRTG, +30.5 net rating

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simple3 8
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replied to GSW Just -3 for Game 3
in NBA Betting
?? This thread was a month ago
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simple3 8
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replied to SDQL number 1 versus number 2 seeds round 3
in NBA Betting
How does it change if the 1 seed lost game one? 
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Indigo999 2
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replied to Will Houston use their own death lineup?
in NBA Betting
By death line up I am referring to size and versatility not shooting 3s. 

You've said they don't have a death line up and then gone on to say you don't know enough so I'm not really sure what you're getting at.

Gordon, Ariza, Tucker, LMAM are all versatile wings who can defend multiple positions. Gordon is a very good ball handler.
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simple3 8
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created a topic Will Houston use their own death lineup?
in NBA Betting
Houston's ace card is going ultra small with Eric Gordon on the court with CP3 & Harden. They NEVER used a line up with these 3 in the regular season but they have used them sparingly in the playoffs with huge success.

We have seen 3 variations of a 5 man lineup including these 3  players in the playoffs:

Ariza, Capela, Gordon, Harden, Paul = 20 minutes, ORTG 122.5, DRTG = 87, Net Rating = 35.4

Ariza, Gordon, Harden, Paul, Tucker = 12 minutes, ORTG 119, DRTG 107, Net Rating 11.9

Capela, Gordon, Harden, Paul, Tucker = 9 minutes, ORTG 127, DRTG 107, Net Rating = 20.0

They can also use Anderson & Green in a rotation for more offense but both are defensive liabilities or LMAM for defense.

GSW's Death Line up in Playoffs last year = 65 minutes, ORTG 133, DRTG 100, Net Rating = 32.9

This years Playoffs = 54 minutes, 127.5 ORTG, 86.6 DRTG, Net Rating 40.9




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simple3 8
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replied to Cavs Backers will Get Buried
in NBA Betting
You could have said the same thing before the Raptors series, it's an oversimplification. Lebron makes his support cast A LOT better and they work well as unit.


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DukeTrinity11 16
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created a topic Cs vs Cavs G1 discussion
in NBA Betting
Really surprised to see a total of 205.5 and juiced to the under. 

Pointed out in my earlier thread that Shane Larkin is a very tough defender for the Celts but also provides very little on offense, a lightweight Andre Roberson if you will. He's really good at locking down his man when he's on the court but the offense also stagnates. Without his cameos Boston's defense is not as good but their offense doesn't suffer and that really showed tonight.

He is not expected back for game 1 and Jaylen Brown should hopefully be off his minutes restriction. 

It's well publicized that Brett Brown was thoroughly out coachedand 6ers immaturity reared it ugly head at times. 

Check out the lineups that Philly used: https://stats.nba.com/lineups/advanced/?CF=TEAM_ABBREVIATION*E*phi&sort=NET_RATING&dir=1&Season=2017-18&SeasonType=Playoffs&OpponentTeamID=1610612738

TJ McConnell was brutally underused and Simmons was unplayable without him playing along side him.

76ers made a hash of this series so I feel Cs are a bit overrated really but they will be tough at home, they're much better at home than on the road. 

Their offensive rating was 114.5 at home in 3 games vs Philly and a defensive rating of 107.4.

Cs did a really good job of locking down Redick but Cavs will have 4 sharpshooters playing alongside James most of the time.

Cleveland was 122.7-113.6 on the road vs Toronto, I see the first two games in Boston being very high scoring games and Boston potentially winning one of them before two slog fests in Cleveland as Boston's offense does not travel well.



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simple3 2
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replied to Celtics without Larkin
in NBA Betting
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simple3 4
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created a topic Celtics without Larkin
in NBA Betting
In the playoffs with Larkin on the court Celts have an offensive rating of 104.8, with him off the court that shoots up to 111.3.

With Larkin on the court they have a defensive rating of 106.3, with him off the court that goes up to 108.4.

Larkin is a tough defender but provides very little on offense.

Their offense has also been a lot better at home in the playoffs with an offensive rating of 111 at home vs 100 on the road.

Philly actually has a higher offensive rating on the road but also a much worse defensive rating which was similar in the regular season.

Expecting this one to go over 204.5 


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simple3 4
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created a topic Tomorrows thoughts
in NBA Betting
Double play on Joel Embiid over 22.5 points.

The usage is there, the paint is his but he's shot really poorly the last two games. He missed 6 or 7 point blank shots in game 3. I'll back him to step up here. Tbh I would not be surprised if Philly win the next 3 games, I'm very tempted to have a bet on the series going to Game 7.

Lets remember Philly had a 21 point lead in game 2, they're clearly the more talented team but getting outcoached/their immaturity is killing them. There is a ceiling to that though, Philly don't have to make huge adjustments to win and potentially win emphatically. If Embiid makes his bunnies then we wouldn't be talking about Ben Simmons fatal mistakes. I expect Philly to lay down the hammer in game 4 taking momentum into game 5. We'll see. 

Cavs/Raps. Not too sure how this one will play out, Derozan is a blight on this team. When he's on the court his slow methodical ball handling kills their rhythm, I doubt Casey has the stones to not start him though. Maybe he'll come out and pull off some hero ball. Ty Lue is talking about playing faster, he mentioned how Raps physicality disrupted their offense and they weren't getting their offense set until late into the shot clock. Again another series where it's really easy to forget Toronto could have won 2 games. Cavs are still a very flawed team but LBJ and Love are nightmarish mismatches for Toronto. LBJ can literally score 2 points whenever he wants, I think the Cavs are truly in trouble he will go into full takeover mode. I've backed LBJ over 31.5 points and Kevin Love over 16.5 points.  
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simple3 2
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