SK1124

How do you guys determine how much to bet per game to ensure long-term survival of your bankroll? 

I typically bet units. But I do have a question in this regard. If my unit is 20 dollars, should I be betting what i need to WIN $20 on a bet? or would each of my 1u bets simply be $20. 

Anyways, that aside, what strategy do you all utilize?

So I'm stuck in the early stages of trying to create my first model...

I've made a model which analyzes Oliver’s 4 factors on offense and defense (using data from bball reference). So now I can look at two teams (ie. Raptors and Twolves) and see a single "score" that i got from using the 8 factors (weighted the 4 offensive factors to get a "offensive rating" and similarly weighted the 4 defensive categories to get a "defensive rating". I then found the difference to get a "overall rating category".

The problem is, i don't know what to do next. How do I move from this to trying to predict a final score??? For example, if the raptors overall rating is 10.3 and the Twolves is 9.8, what can I do next with this data? Ah i wish i knew more about predictive modeling. I'd super appreciate if anyone can push me in the right direction if you have created your own model in the past!

Thank You!

Been busy so havent posted in a couple days.

Today: philly spread -1.5. 3u

I went with the Ibaka prop because I knew (based on history) he would get a significant amount of minutes in this game instead of Valanciunas (matchup with Horford). I am not a fan of Boston's interior presence. I had a good feeling he would feast. Also, based on preseason and game 1, its clear that Ibaka will continue to get his opportunities on this squad. 18.5 seemed pretty reasonable given its pts/boards/assts (he almost did it with points alone!).

10/19 Picks:

Magic +1.5 - 1u 

Kings TTU 110.5 - 1u 

Pelicans -10.5 - 1u 

Aaron Gordon O19.5points - 1u 

Ibaka Pts, rebs, assts over 18.5 - 1u 

Parlay (usually don't do these): Grizzlies ML / Wolves ML / Pelicans ML - -115 : 2u 

Jazz/Warriors O218 1u 

Total Record: 9-7 (56%) //  Max Plays 0-1 // (+1 Units)

Another average day (but a positive day!). 

Picks will be up later today!

BOL

Adding jazz gs over 218

10/19 Picks:

Magic +1.5 - 1u

Kings TTU 110.5 - 1u

Pelicans -10.5 - 1u

Aaron Gordon O19.5points - 1u

Ibaka Pts, rebs, assts over 18.5 - 1u

Parlay (usually don't do these): Grizzlies ML / Wolves ML / Pelicans ML - -115 : 2u

BOL ...hoping for my first great day of the year!!!

10/18 Results: 

Bulls/76ers Under 219.5 - 3u (MAX PLAY). 

Lakers/Blazers Over 222 - 2u 

Dragic - pts, rebs, assts under 29.5 - 1u 

caldwell-pope - points under 13.5 - 1u 

beal - pts, rebs, assts over 28.5 - 1u 

Could have been a great day. That 79 point outlier in the 76ers game totally screwed the under! Time to move on as its a LONG season! 

Total Record: 5-4 (56%) //  Max Plays 0-1 // (-1 Units)

Added a few player performances....my final picks are:

10/18 Picks: 

Bulls/76ers Under 219.5 - 3u (MAX PLAY). 

Lakers/Blazers Over 222 - 2u

Dragic - pts, rebs, assts under 29.5 - 1u

caldwell-pope - points under 13.5 - 1u

beal - pts, rebs, assts over 28.5 - 1u

BOL

I swear I typed it...weird, but I cashed out the dallas game when i realized Booker was playing! 

10/17 picks:

Atl/Knicks under 214.5 2u 

Bucks -3 2u (brutal loss!)

Dallas -1.5 1u 

Nuggets -2 2u 

Total Record: 2-2 (50%) //  Max Plays 0-0 // (-1 Units)

Tough day. My apologies again for posting prematurely on the dallas game and then cashing it out. I was busy at the Raptors game! 

10/18 Picks: 

Bulls/76ers Under 219.5 - 3u (MAX PLAY). 

Lakers/Blazers Over 222 - 2u

May add a few more later.

BOL

I'll add a few more later likely. Leaning Lakers 

Not a great start.  Adding nuggets spread 2u

Off to the Raptors game but trying to get picks in

Todays:

Atl/Knicks under 214.5 2u

Bucks -3 2u

Dallas -1.5 1u 

BOL

Yesterday's pick:

OKC +13 @ GS - 1U  

Total Record: 1-0 (100%) //  (Play of Day (POD)) 0-0 // (+1 Units)

Today's picks will be up later! 

Back at it for a second year. I posted picks starting in February last year and the results were: 55-41 (57%) // 14-5 (Play of Day (POD)) (74%) // (+37 Units). You can find the thread here: https://www.covers.com/postingForum/post01/showmessage.aspx?action=quote&ur=Newtons%20Law&id=123777672&spt=22&sub=102242629&page=5 

Anyways, I do this mainly to track my picks for myself. Keeps me disciplined. Follow as you wish. Wishing all of us covers cappers a great year! (PS. I may post a few non nba picks (NFL) on weekends here as well to keep it all in my thread, but most picks will be NBA. As you will see, I tend to bet between 1 to 3 units on a given game depending on the strength of the play. 

Today's Picks:

OKC +13 @ GS - 1U

Not sure if I will add anything in the Philly/Bos game, but if I do, will post it here pre-game. 

BOL