slamspurs

Was leaning Charlotte as well, but disagree that a line movement that big "suggests value on the underdog." It actually suggests value on Rice, who you are giving 5 pts less with compared to the opening line. 

Honestly, I think Lynx -10.5 is still live. Seriously, I think it's a given that the Lynx are going to win at this point. Only down 5 with 7 mins left. 

This is the same Valkyries team that blew an 8 point lead with 3:30 and lost by 9. And because it's the last game of the season, the Valkyries will foul til the end. 

WNBA works in funny ways. 

Preseason was all underdogs and overs. If you did that you’d be getting killed in the regular season.

Thanks for the Ram notes. i forgot that they haven’t played anyone yet. While Philly is pretty battle tested having played KC already and Dallas the week before. 

I don’t really buy the lookahead for the Ravens. 

If the Ravens view the Chiefs like most of the public, it’s a team on the downfall. Injured, suspended, old. 0-2 and very beatable. Not a marquee win, but a game they should win.

Beating the Chiefs isn’t a signature win anymore.

Geno 

WOW 3 chances to backdoor! CAN U DO SOMETHING FOR ONCE IN UR LIFE?!

And here it is. You got 4 mins Geno. NO FIELD GOALS

Damnit GENO ANYTHING BUT THAT!

I have a feeling he'll get another chance though. Harbaugh will play conservative. The backdoor will be open one more time, but need a TD and a 2. 

Okay, Chargers left the backdoor open for Geno. If he covers this I'll never say another bad thing about him again. 

Gimme TD and 2 pt! Then Chargers run out the clock. 

Man this is vintage Herbert with Keenan Allen back in the fold. Who woulda known that an old man would make so much difference. 

Aiden Oconnell got hurt. 

I'd take my chances with Geno over Pickett. He only wins if his defense holds the other team under 20. 

Geno fucking sucks though. Fools you into thinking he's decent sometimes. But he's really just a thorn in your side. 

Well the backdoor is open slightly for Raiders people. Just gotta hope Harbaugh goes into conservative mode. 

Taking props for these SGPs in particular is tough. So many scenarios to consider. 

If Burrow has a terrible game and Bengals lose, it goes under.

If Jacksonville lays and egg and Cincy plays conservative in a blowout, it goes under.

If Jacksonville jumps out to a big lead and Cincy abandons the run, it goes over.

If Jacksonville and Cincy are in a shootout, it goes over.

You could be absolutely right about who wins the game or the total, and still lose this passing yards prop. That's why people need to avoid those props and SGPs cuz they are really tough to win, hence why the sportsbook will let you boost them 50% odds, play them no-risk with a free play back if you lose, etc. 

GL Claw. Could go either way with this pick. 

Judging on last week alone, you could argue that the Packers are the ones due for regression.

Washington won and covered, but could barely did anything outside of the first drive for a long time. They won sloppy, and the defense kept them in the game, or Giants ineptness on offense did. This was against a team that went 3-14 last season. 

The Packers on the other hand were in full control basically from the opening drive on. The offense looked amazing the first couple of drives, and the defense was getting stops and turnovers. They let off the gas in the second half because they didn't need to do any more. 

They would have won 27-6 if not for the last drive in garbage time. This was against a team that went 15-2 last season. 

Just pointing that out.  

Which Panthers game are you talking about? Last year the Panthers started the season 1-7 ATS, and lost 7 out of their first 8 games. Every one of those losses was by at least 10. 

Game 1 they lost 47-10 against the Saints. They followed that up with a 26-3 loss to the Chargers. 

They lose by 19 or 20. 

Nice hit. I took Sky +8.5 first quarter, then watched them take a shit. 

Harbaugh tends to play conservative with a lead. Lamar is prone to bad mistakes, so he tries to help him help himself. Unfortunately, letting off the gas late bit them this time. It's only one game though, and it usually works. Just needa let Lamar loose in the big games. 

I don't even watch the game. The bettingcast on the apps is like 10 seconds ahead of live TV, and like a minute ahead of the streaming apps. 

It also gives you an opportunity to study live lines and see where you're at. Honestly, the knowledge you gain from watching live lines for hours is invaluable. After a while you start to understand where lines should be, and if they're too high or too low given the situation.