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Today: Cubs ML -125 ($1250 to win $1000) Analysis: Cubs ML -125 ($1250 to win $1000) Been a while since I've posted, but why not place a wager on the most anticipated game in baseball in my lifetime? The best part about not being a fan of either team, is that I can stay objective and just look at the stats to inform my opinion. Now that the starting lineups have been posted, the Cubs bats against righties have avg / obp / slg / ops splits of .267 / .356 / .460 / .816 while the Tribe has .258 / .335 / .432 / .767. In a game that can come down to a single hit, I like the advantage in the power number (SLG) that this Cubs lineup offers. The pitching matchup is as close as it gets. Hendricks has been amazingly consistent this year after a rocky 2015 campaign, giving up 3+ runs in only 6 out of 34 games he's started including the postseason (12 out of 37 for Kluber). While he isn't nearly as dominant away from Wrigley Field (and he hasn't pitched an away game this postseason), his away ERA of 2.95 is superior to Kluber's home ERA of 3.24. These numbers are close, but what really worries me about Kluber is that this will be his second consecutive start on short rest. I didn't look at his game log over his career, but I'm certain this is the first time he's going to pitch 3 games in a span of 9 days. He might have done this in little league, but this is the World Series and against one of the best lineups in baseball. Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me, but fool me three times? The Giant's didn't even make Bumgarner do this during last year's World Series, allowing Bumgarner to come out of the pen in game 7. While Kluber mixed up his arsenal in game 4, featuring many more off speed pitches than was seen in game 1, he won't have that element of surprise this time around. It's hard for me to back a pitcher in uncharted territory in the highest pressure situation baseball has to offer. With no tomorrow for both teams, I expect this game to be managed like an all-star game, with starting pitchers available out of the bullpen. With any sign of emergency, I expect both managers to get to the pen early. Factoring in the Cubs starters, the Cubs should have equal if not better depth out of the bullpen tonight. Should there be trouble, Lester should be good for a couple innings as will Chapman. Chapman did throw 42 pitches on Sunday, but with Monday off and a routine 20 pitches last night, he is good to go. Finally I'll mention that playing in an AL park allows Schwarber to hit, which shifts all the other bats down the order. This is a significant advantage that will tire a pitcher like Kluber out, who again is pitching on extremely short rest. In game 4, Kluber had the luxury of facing the Cubs pitcher in the 9 spot, but there won't be any of those opportunities in this game. This should be a low scoring game, and with all things considered, I'll take the better bats, the less risky starting pitching proposition, and an equal if not better bullpen to win. Normally over the course of a betting season I might factor in the juice and try to find value picks. But in a one game situation, I'm here to pick the winner. I expect a parade in Chicago BOL |
SoulGlo | 1 |
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YTD: 60-419 +$19,391.91 Return on Risk: 15.69% Today: Tigers ML +175 ($2000 to win $3500) Analysis: Tigers ML +175 ($2000 to win $3500) Alfredo Simon's numbers against the Indians this year are: 24 innings pitched, 4-0 W/L record, and a 1.50 ERA. Danny Salazar's numbers this year against the Tigers are: 22 innings pitched, 1-3 W/L record, and a 6.55 ERA. Tigers are hitting right at .418/.738 compared to Indians at .399/.720, but keep in mind how hitter friendly Progressive Field is compared to Comerica Park and you will see that the Indians numbers are inflated, which is even better for the Tigers. Cabrera, Victor Martinez, Kinsler, Davis, and McCann all have .300+ batting averages against Salazar. There is no way that in today's game, Salazar and the Indians should be favored. Huge value in the Tigers. BOL |
SoulGlo | 19 |
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Quote Originally Posted by TheActuary: I'm on the Rays and Brewers BOL bud Perfect - seems to work out well for us when we are on the same side
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Yesterday: 1-3 -$2967 Blue Jays -1 ($1582 to win $1603) manufactured using ML and RL Astros -1 ($1215 to win $1070) Phillies -1 ($1190 to win $1250) Dodgers RL -1.5 +102 ($1000 to win $1020) YTD: 59-39 +$21,884.41 Return on Risk: 18.62% Today: Rays ML -119 ($2000 to win $1680.68) Brewers ML -120 ($2000 to win $1666.66) Dodgers -1 ($2025 to win $1507.50) Analysis: Rays ML -119 ($2000 to win $1680.68) Rays are hitting southpaws at SLG/OPS splits of .443/.773 vs the Tigers against right at .419/.739. Matt Boyd pitches to contact and has given up an impressive 12 home runs in just 37.2 innings and his ERA since August 1 is 6.97. In that same time, Erasmo Ramirez has a 4.50 ERA but has been the better pitcher throughout the sample size of the season. Rays have the bats advantage in facing a southpaw, and have the pitching advantage. Brewers ML -120 ($2000 to win $1666.66) There really is no comparison between Jungmann and Conley. Jungmann has a 2.81 ERA since the beginning of August compared to Conley's 5.48 ERA in that same time. Brewers are hitting lefties at .390/.682 which is better than Marlins do right at .366/.667. Brewers have now won 7 of their last 8 games and have the optimal pitching and batting matchup today. Dodgers -1 ($2025 to win $1507.50) In a regular season matchup of southpaws I'd take Kershaw over pretty much anyone else in the league. Tonight, he goes head to head with Andrew Heaney, who has been good this year, but will have to face a Dodgers lineup that hits southpaws at .425/.768. The Dodgers have impressively won 12 of their last 14 games with solid pitching and good enough batting. Tonight is set up to be the same. BOL |
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Astros -1 ($1215 to win $1070)
Starting lineup splits have the Astros at .447/.770 vs the A's at .409/.703. Doubront has pitched well but is exceeding expectations while Fiers, who is also pitching well, is pitching to expectations. Last month Fiers went 6.2 innings against the A's and gave up just 1 run. Pitching advantage and batting advantage for the Astros. Phillies -1 ($1190 to win $1250) The Braves have now lost 12 in a row and 19 of their last 20 games. Perez has given up less than 4 runs just once in his last 7 starts, while Harang has had a 0.95 ERA against the Braves in 19 innings this year. Dodgers RL -1.5 +102 ($1000 to win $1020) Dodgers have hit right at .416/.739 vs the Angels at .398/.707 and Greinke is probably the top pitcher in baseball right now. The Dodgers have won 11 of their last 13 games and should win tonight. Playing this as a RL vs -1 bet since the Dodgers bats have returned to form in September. BOL |
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Yesterday: 2-2 -$531.16 Blue Jays -1 ($1100 to win $864) Brewers ML -118 ($750 to win $635.59) Dodgers ML -124 ($750 to win $604.84) Cardinals ML ($1250 to win $1158.01) YTD: 58-36 +$24,851.41 Return on Risk: 22.08% Today: Blue Jays -1 ($1582 to win $1603) manufactured using ML and RL Analysis: Blue Jays -1 ($1582 to win $1603) manufactured using ML and RL Both pitchers looked great in their last outings, but I much prefer Buehrle's outing since he had to face a loaded Tigers offense that hits southpaws as well as anyone. The Blue Jays pushed back his start a few days in order to give the veteran some rest. He hasn't pitched since last Sunday, so should have a fresh arm against the Red Sox Today. Porcello has looked good in his last two starts, but recall a start on July 1 in which he only lasted 2 innings against the Blue Jays and gave up 7 runs. It's unsure which set of Red Sox bats will turn up today, but you can depend on the Blue Jays to hit, and today I prefer Buehrle over Porcello. May have a few more later. New job starts Thursday, so let's finish these last few days off strong. BOL |
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Starting lineup splits for Cards vs Pirates show the cards at .398/.713 vs the Pirates at .382/.688. I still love the Cards in game 3 at home today and am adding another play on them. This is in addition to my earlier play.
Cardinals ML -105 ($500 too win $476.19) BOL
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Dodgers ML -124 ($750 to win $604.84)
The Padres can't hit left and had just 3 hits against southpaw pitching last night and a .361/.666 SLG/OPS split against left all year. Today, they get another decent southpaw in Brett Anderson, who is sporting a 2.67 away ERA all year. The Dodgers are playing solid baseball, winning 10 of their last 12 games. Individually other than Rollins, the Dodgers bats have solid numbers against Cashner. Gonzalez, Grandal, Turner, Crawford, and Ellis all have .300+ batting averages against Cashner. These are the games a 1st place team wins, and today the Dodgers have the optimal pitching and batting matchup. Cardinals ML -110 ($750 to win $681.82) Lackey at home this year is sporting a 1.89 ERA and an even better 1.42 ERA against the Pirates this year. Cole away has a 2.55 ERA and a 3.65 ERA against the Cardinals. Since August 1, their ERA are 3.20 for Lackey and 3.94 for Cole. No matter what way you look at it, Lackey is the better performing pitcher in today's matchup. The Cardinals have hit right handed pitching slightly better than the Pirates all year, with a .407/.733 split vs the Pirates at .397/.719. The Pirates have lost 5 of their last 6 games and have to face the #1 team in baseball with a sub-optimal pitching and batting matchup. BOL
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Yesterday: 0-3 -$2850 Yankees -1 ($1100 to win $860) Reds (game 1) ML -137 ($1000 to win $729.93) Rangers/Angels o8 -105 ($750 to win $714.29) YTD: 56-34 +$25,382.57 Return on Risk: 23.35% Today: Blue Jays -1 ($1100 to win $864) Brewers ML -118 ($750 to win $635.59) Analysis: Blue Jays -1 ($1100 to win $864) In his last 5 start, Tillman has a 7.21 ERA and the Orioles have lost 4 of those 5 games. Moreover, his ERA against the Blue Jays this year is 15.00 in 15 innings, which means he has given up 25 runs in 15 innings against Blue Jays bats. Estrada has looked good as of late, with a 2.18 ERA in his last 6 starts. Statistically, Orioles bats can hold their own with the Blue Jays, but you must consider the fact that Camden Yards is a much more hitter friendly park. On a neutral field, the Blue Jays have the better bats, and today, the better pitcher. Brewers ML -118 ($750 to win $635.59) The Brewers have now won 6 in a row and today get to face a pitcher in Lorenzen that might still belong in the minors. After spending 3 weeks in the minors, he came back and coughed up more runs than innings to the Cubs. Over his last 8 starts in the majors, he has a 9.79 ERA. Meanwhile since July 1, Nelson has had a 2.61 ERA. Brewers are hot and the Reds continue to disappoint by coughing up games they should win (like yesterday) Will be playing Dodgers and Cardinals, and will post those in a few BOL |
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Adding:
Rangers/Angels o8 -105 ($750 to win $714.29)
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Yesterday: 5-2 +$1552.20 Yankees -1 ($585 to win $519.75) manufactured using RL and ML Red Sox -1 ($580 to win $412) manufactured using RL and ML Mets RL -1.5 -108 ($600 to win $555.56) Pirates ML +135 ($500 to win $675) Rockies 1st 5 ML -110 ($600 to win $545.45) Rangers ML +140 ($500 to win $700) Dodgers ML -120 ($600 to win $500) YTD: 56-31 +$28,232.57 Return on Risk: 26.67% Today: Yankees -1 ($1100 to win $860) Reds (game 1) ML -137 ($1000 to win $729.93) Analysis and 1 or 2 more plays coming later (sorry on west coast time now), but wanted to get these in first. They look very good BOL
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Today: 5-2 +$1552.20 Yankees -1 ($585 to win $519.75) manufactured using RL and ML Red Sox -1 ($580 to win $412) manufactured using RL and ML Mets RL -1.5 -108 ($600 to win $555.56) Pirates ML +135 ($500 to win $675) Rockies 1st 5 ML -110 ($600 to win $545.45) Rangers ML +140 ($500 to win $700) Dodgers ML -120 ($600 to win $500) YTD: 56-31 +$28,232.57 Return on Risk: 26.67% |
SoulGlo | 35 |
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Sorry all - won't have time to answer questions today. On my way to the airport to catch a flight to Cali. Just know that this is one of my favorite cards I have seen in a while. Whether I have 1 play or 7, they all have to look really good for me to lock in. I passed on Blue Jays, Dbacks, etc. for reasons I don't have time to discuss, but they were a no play for me. BOL
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Yesterday: 1-1 +$530 Twins ML -115 ($750 to win $652.17)Brewers ML +128 ($1000 to win $1280) YTD: 51-29 +$26,680.37 Return on Risk: 26.19% Today: Yankees -1 ($585 to win $519.75) manufactured using RL and ML Red Sox -1 ($580 to win $412) manufactured using RL and ML Mets RL -1.5 -108 ($600 to win $555.56) Pirates ML +135 ($500 to win $675) Rockies 1st 5 ML -110 ($600 to win $545.45) Rangers ML +140 ($500 to win $700) Dodgers ML -120 ($600 to win $500) Analysis: Yankees -1 ($585 to win $519.75) manufactured using RL and ML In 5 career starts, the 21 year old rookie, Severino, has looked very good with a 2.17 ERA and recording one strikeout per inning. In 6 August starts, Odorizzi has a 4.33 ERA, which is good for his worst monthly performance. Last year, Odorizzi started to fall off in August and September, with ERAs of about 4.80 in both months. I believe fatigue may be beginning to set in, and I much prefer the fresher arm in Severino. The Yankee bats seem to have woken up, and they have hit Odorizzi for a good average over his career. Yankees bats hit right better than the Rays, and I'll take the fresher pitcher and better bats to win. Red Sox -1 ($580 to win $412) manufactured using RL and ML Rookie southpaw Adam Morgan has had pedestrian numbers in 12 starts with a 4.03 ERA. Meanwhile, after struggling for much of the year, Joe Kelly had a 2.68 ERA in 6 starts in August, and the Red Sox won every game. His last 4 starts were impressive quality outings. The Red Sox have hit left at .416/.745 vs the Phillies against right at .386/.683. Red Sox have the better bats and the hotter pitcher. Mets RL -1.5 -108 ($600 to win $555.56) Other than one bad start against the Phillies, deGrom has been his usual dominant self. Tom Koehler has a 6.68 August ERA and has a 14.73 ERA against the Mets this year! The Marlins can't hit right handed pitching, and the Mets are now hitting for power. Huge advantage in pitching and bats for the Mets today. Pirates ML +135 ($500 to win $675) In 5 starts as a Pirate, Happ has had a 1.98 ERA, giving up 1 homer in 27.1 innings and the Pirates have won each of the last 4 games he has started. Carlos Martinez has a 4.35 ERA against the Pirates this year, giving up more runs to the Pirates than he has to any other team. The Pirates hit right much better at .396/.717 than the Cardinals do left at .364/.679. Pirates are a great value pick today to upset the Cardinals. Rockies 1st 5 ML -110 ($600 to win $545.45) I was very close to locking in this same bet in yesterday's Rockies vs. Giants game, but the line swung way too much before I could grab it. The Giants don't hit southpaws very well, and get to face a southpaw in De La Rosa, who pitched very well in August with a 2.87 ERA. Chris Heston had a horrible August, with a 5.79 ERA and has a 6.50 ERA against the Rockies this year, including a 9.82 ERA at Coors Field. The Rockies bats against right handed pitching has been dominant, and CarGo now has 4 homers in his last 2 games. I don't trust the Rockies bullpen, but I like the Rockies starting pitching matchup and their power bats to win. Rangers ML +140 ($500 to win $700) Martin Perez's ERA is showing 5.15, but in 8 starts this year, he has had 1 terrible start and 7 good outings. That one terrible start ballooned his ERA, but if you ignore that game, his ERA this year is 3.63. Garrett Richards had a 5.17 ERA in August. The Rangers bats hit right at .414./.740 which is much better than the Angels hit left at .363/.665. Rangers are playing with purpose to hold onto their playoff birth, and I love them today getting anything more than 100 cents to the dollar. Dodgers ML -120 ($600 to win $500) Mike Bolsinger is back and has performed very well against the Padres, with a 1.42 ERA this year over 12.2 innings. Several of the Dodgers have hit Shields with power and consistency over the last 5 years. The Dodgers have now won 8 of their last 10 games, and after losing to the Padres last night, I like them to win today in a game that they need way more than the Padres. BOL |
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Quote Originally Posted by Hotdog919: Thanks Soul what's next? I'm flying to Vegas on Friday looking for your picks to clean up in Vegas....thx Will likely have a large card for tomorrow. Going to reassess my leans in the morning.
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Today: 1-1 +$530 Twins ML -115 ($750 to win $652.17)Brewers ML +128 ($1000 to win $1280) YTD: 51-29 +$26,680.37 Return on Risk: 26.19% |
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Brewers ML +128 ($1000 to win $1280)
Andrew McCutchen and Jung Ho Kang are both benched today for the Pirates, and yet the line is still +128. Starting lineup splits show an advantage for the Brewers at .408/.699 vs the Pirates at .376/.668. Now, you may think the Pirates still being heavily favored is because Liriano is better than Jungmann? I disagree. Sure the Pirates have won the last 11 games that Liriano has started, but with a 3.32 ERA over those starts, he benefited from great run support. Jungmann in 15 starts this year has a 2.48 ERA and has a 1.50 ERA at home. He's faced the Pirates twice this year and beat them handily, giving up 2 runs in 14 innings, and one of those starts was his major league debut. There is no advantage in Liriano over Jungmann, and there is no advantage today in bats for the Pirates without their #3 or #5 hitters in the lineup. Pirates are a false favorite and Brewers are still getting +128. Great value. BOL
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Yesterday: 1-0 +$714.29 Rangers ML -140 ($1000 to win $714.29) YTD: 50-28 +$26,150.37 Return on Risk: 26.12% Today: Twins ML -115 ($750 to win $652.17) Analysis: Twins ML -115 ($750 to win $652.17) The Twins are playing baseball with a purpose, and now find themselves a game out from a wild card spot after winning 10 of their last 12 games. Kyle Gibson didn't have the best August, but his 5.29 ERA in that month and overall 2.92 ERA at home this season is much preferred as the lesser of two evils over Samardzija's 8.82 ERA in August and 4.98 ERA away this season. The Twins went 4-2 in Gibson's 6 starts in August compared to and 0-6 record for the White Sox in Samardzija's 6 starts. Sano is out of the lineup today for the Twins, and I have the starting lineup splits against right at Twins .395/.683 and the White Sox at .400/.711. This shows a slight advantage for the White Sox; however, the Twins batters have fared better against Samardzija than the White Sox batters have against Gibson over the last few years. The White Sox #2, 3 and 5 hitters today (Abreu, Cabrera, and Laroche) have just 2 hits in their last 26 at bats against Gibson. I'll take the Twins superior pitching matchup to win game 3 today. Will likely have more plays later, but wanted to get this day game locked. BOL |
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Today: 1-0 +$714.29 Rangers ML -140 ($1000 to win $714.29) YTD: 50-28 +$26,150.37 Return on Risk: 26.12% |
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Yesterday: 3-2 +$227.64 Diamondbacks (game 1) ML -139 ($750 to win $539.57) Blue Jays -1 ($750 to win $500) manufactured using RL and ML Mets -1 ($750 to win $520) manufactured using RL and ML Giants ML +104 ($750 to win $780) Rangers ML -109 ($750 to win $688.07) YTD: 49-28 +$25,436.08 Return on Risk: 25.66% Today: Rangers ML -140 ($1000 to win $714.29) Analysis: Rangers ML -140 ($1000 to win $714.29) I wanted to grab this one earlier, but was packing all day and didn't have time to check again until now. The Padres lost one of their best bats against left last night in Derek Norris, and tonight's starting lineups show a huge advantage in bats for the Rangers with a SLG/OPS split of .434/.778 vs the Padres at .375/.701. In addition, I love Fielder's and Beltre's recent numbers against Kennedy. In their last 16 at bats combined, they're batting .375 with 3 homers. Kennedy also didn't make it past the 4th inning in a start against Texas on July 10. Since 2012, Hamels owns a 1.85 ERA against the Padres and a 2.84 ERA at Petco Park. I much prefer Hamels over Kennedy, and absolutely prefer tonight's Rangers bats over the Padres bats. BOL |
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