Stew Baker

I use sportsbettingdime.com. Their ticket %s for spreads always matches Action Network's (this is the only piece of public data AN shows to nonsubscribers), so SBD's numbers do look valid . I was surprised, though, with the ticket and money %s SBD was showing for the Gm. 7 total - both were in the high 80's  in favor of the over, and hit 90 at one point late. Was Action Network showing numbers like this for the o/u?

@tweets50

Nice run!

Regarding ticket and money %s, irrespective of the specific books Action Network uses for their data, I believe its the same data used by spotsbettingdime for one simple reason: The spread ticket % numbers on AN (the only thing they show nonsubscibers) are exactly the same as the spread ticket %s shown on sportsbetting dime (at worst a 1% difference, perhaps one is real time and the other isnt?). 

The thing that surprised me is that on SBD, I saw ticket AND money %s on the over holding in the upper 80's, and closed, I believe, right at or near 90%! Are those the  numbers you saw on Action Network for the o/u?

Not according to LeagueCapper! 

@MrFreedo

Congrats on your win!

Speaking of the Hilton, I remember that well.

During basketball, I used to get there around 6:00 - 6:30 to be there for when they put up the opening numbers at 8:00. You couldn't be 1st in line, as  there was this one guy, a runner, who was paid to be there before anyone else. I was usually 2nd or 3rd. This was in the day when Stardust and the Hilton put up THE opening numbers for Vegas. A lot of their numbers were OK, but plenty of them were BAD. We used to CRUSH their numbers.

The bet you made at superbook (are we talking about the Hilton?) was that a case of buying 3 points, they let you buy 3 pts. for 60 cents?

I think OKC returns to their prior form after a 1 game blip. Not getting much line value at -5/5.5, though. You may want to see if they're slow out of the gate, and make a live 1H bet at a good number. 

For me, Indiana being on the outside looking in for 11 of 12 qtrs. at Paycom is the factor which trumps all the others. Being miffed at getting steamrolled in Gm. 6 won't hurt the Thunder's chances either.

@tweets50

I don't have a subscription to Action Network. and they only show the spread ticket % to the public. I've been using sportsbettingdime, which seems to be based on the same data, and gives ticket AND money %s for spread, total, and ML. Firstly, as of 1:34 pm (EDT) they're showing 52-48 ticket % in favor of Indy, and 51-49 money % in favor of OKC. I that in line with what you see at AN?

Secondly, if that is the same data that you're seeing, are you interpreting that the books have moved the line downward off of sharp bets, and disregarded the large bets from random sources?   

That's a really insightful piece of writing you posted. Looks like it shows the books have actually learned something here.

What do you mean exactly when you say that Indy hasn't broken down on the road? For 11 of 12 quarters at Paycom they've been on the outside looking in

I do have a side which I favor. Waiting to see what tale later line movement might tell, if any.

@tweets50

Are your thoughts on the o/u line movement in Gm. 5 applicable to the pointspread movement in gm. 7? It seems like a very similar scenario (although the move is not close to gametime).  I'm seeing the line having moved from an opener of 9 in most places, to a consensus (as of this writing) of 7.5 dog -115. The line came down in stages, but the full pt. drop from 8.5 down to 7.5 came within less than an hour, between about 10 and 11 am Fri. (EDT). This, like with the total in Gm. 5, doesn't seem to be supported by an influx of  money on one side, as the money %s stand, as of this writing, at Indiana 53 to OKC 47.

Are you viewing this move similarly to the move on GM. 5's total, where you conclude that the books believe Indy is the wrong side, and are exaggerating the line movement to grab more Indy money?

I am noticing, as a point of interest, that the ML money %s are quite one sided here, 83 to 17 Indy as of this writing. Would something like this be a factor in your thinking regarding the pointspread movement?

"Only 2 NBA MVP winners under 27 have won a title since 1990."

To put this in perspective, how many sub 27 MVP winners in that time span made the playoffs?

And how many sub 27 MVP winners who actually made the final round?

Out of

@justliketoplay

 Add to this the fact that at OKC in these Finals, the average score is 226.7 (avg. score at Indiana = 212.3)

Sorry, wasn't really up when I posted the prior post. Set of games in the SQRL query was gm. 7s in all playoff rounds when home team lost prior game by 15+, not all Finals gm. 7s like SPark1 was talking about. Regardless, I think you'll find that the avg. o/u for all Finals gm. 7s (going back as far as these records are available) was under 200 anyway, so my point about the average EXPECTED scoring this isyear being much higher than the average expected scoring in prior Finals game 7s scoring still holds.

Where can the oldest available spread/ou records be located? Most of these sites only go back like 20 years.

If you're talking about Google's AI overview, be careful with that. Last year it had the Lakers winning one of the Finals games, when in actuality it was 4-0 Sixers.

Also, assuming that's true, though; for the set of games most of which went under 200, the average o/ u line was 194.5, according to the SQRL query run by Mr, Freedo'd friend. This year"s o/ u is much higher

Road teams in gm. 7, 15+ pt. win prev. game. Wild card rd., conf. semis, and conf. finals for comparison, and, of course, the final round. I'd do it for 20+ too just to see, this was more like a 20+ win.

@tweets50

It never previously was part of my thinking that books really knew anything or would try to influence bettors. Not that I had any information for or against that, rather I had never broached the subject. I was more heavily into sports prognostication; I was self reliant, thinking I could, in the majority of cases, acquire all the relevant information on my own, and once I had that, believing I could analyze the info as well as or better than anybody. I would look at significant line movements, and unless I could find a factual basis for it, I wouldn't be influenced.

If there was a 1 or 1 1/2 pt. move as gametime approached, i would simply assume it was a syndicate move, but this was before I was aware of money % data. Now that I'm more aware of that, your explanation does makes sense, and I'll be keeping an eye on this going forward.