STLTarHeels

I’m watching on youtube

Gl brother. I’m on both as well

I’m with ya on Charleston. Good luck

I hope that line on Wright state it -21 pays real well

Brown -3

Siena brought in Syracuse legend Gerry McNamara to lead the program, after many years on the 'Cuse bench as an assistant.  And while he could bring back the excitement to Loudonville, it could take a bit, as they are starting over.  As we know from above, that doesn't play well with me early in the year. As for the Bears from Brown, they return 3 guys that started for them last year, in a year that they really got things going late (winning 7 of last 8), and were a couple missed free throws away from dancing in March. Coach Martin has 6 guys back that contributed on a nightly basis last year, and that continuity will pay its dividends tonight, in my opinion. Owusu-Anane should be the focal point of the offense, and should clean up on the glass, while All-Ivy guard Kino Lilly Jr looks to jump right back in off his 19ppg season a year ago.  

Western Kentucky -1

Although this is Hank Plonas first DI head coaching job, he's a proven winner.  He won 225 of 259 games at Indian Hills Community College before joining the bench of coach Steve Lutz at WKU.  Now that Lutz has moved on to Power 4 ball, its time for Plona to shine.  He gets 11 guys back that contributed to last years 22 win team, and a CUSA championship is in their sights.  Wichita St is looking to rebound from a not so flattering season, finishing 15-19.  They do bring back 5 of their top 7 scorers from last season, and have some length that will cause issues for some teams.  That being said, I don't think the Hilltoppers will continue to play the fast, uptempo offense (1st in ADJ tempo last year), and the Shockers won't be able to keep up.

I don't know if I'll have time to get write ups in for the rest so heres my full card:

College of Charleston -2

Santa Clara -1

Texas AM -4

Wright St/Kentucky Over 160.5

Brown -3

Western Kentucky -1

Quinnipiac +8

Mississippi Valley St/Iowa St Over 132

Gonzaga/Baylor Over 156.5

GL today everyone, and enjoy 14ish hours of hoops to kick things off.  I'll hopefully be around a little this morning and later in the evening.

Texas AM -4.5

Sticking with the theme here, as UCF has 11 new members on their team and although they have some dudes that can really score coming in, it takes a bit to figure out how everyone is going to get theirs within the system.  And to have to face the physicality of a Buzz Williams coached team, isn't a recipe I'd sign up for.  Being a true home game helps, but the Aggies bring a wealth of experience to Orlando so I'm not sure how much the home floor matters tomorrow.  Taylor, Coleman and the gang will bring the boom on the defensive end, and ultimately will be too much for UCF to handle. 

Wright St/Kentucky Over 160.5

This is mostly a "fade Wright St defense" play, but their pace on offense will come into play as well.  As long as coach Clint Sargent sticks to what he learned from coach Nagy, and keeps the "try and outscore everyone" mentality, WSU will be scoring plenty of points, and giving plenty up.  Last year they were 33rd in Kenpom ADJO, and 348th in ADJD.  Quite the delta. Kentucky comes in with a clean slate.  Gone are the days of Cal and the one and dones.  Only four underclassmen are even on the roster.  The upperclassmen that are coming in may be new faces in Lexington, but they are hardly strangers to DI basketball.  WSU will play at a speed that fits right in to what coach Pope wants to do, and the Kats will get out and run all night.  100+ from Kentucky is expected, just need WSU and their pace to keep up. 

Probably a couple more in the morning.

If college football has been any sort of precursor as to how the college basketball season is gonna go, then its gonna be a whole lot of fun, and a whole lot of madness!  I've got a couple early games in the Field of 68 Showcase that peak my interest, so here they are:

College of Charleston -2

Moving on from the Pat Kelsey era was never going to be easy at CoC, but getting an experienced coach like Chris Mack will be certain to lessen the stress.  Having Ante Brzovic back is a HUGE help, but having a PG like Fulton (led country in Ast:TO) back, should really be the key to early success in Macks tenure in Charleston. On the other side, Scott Nagy comes in from Wright St, where he had lots of success, and should try and implement his up-tempo offense.  Only problem being, he returns only 10ppg from last years squad, so a LOT of new faces in Carbondale.  They did bring in some scorers in Elliot and Steffe, but I think it will take some time for all this to gel, and Nagys team last year at Wright St had a horrific defense. Experience and continuity hold a lot of value for me, especially early in the year, so I'm on Charleston.

Santa Clara -1

There is a lot of hope here in St. Louis this year, and all of it has to do with the incomers for Indiana St.  Coach Josh Schertz comes to a program that has been pretty bad in recent years.  But he's the perfect guy for the job.  Bringing an All American with him in Robbie Avila doesn't hurt either.  Isaiah Swope also comes over and paired with returning guys Jimerson and Hughes Jr, the Billikens have 4 legit guys that can get 20 any night.  Santa Clara on the other hand is quite the opposite.  They are one of five teams in the country to not lose anyone to the transfer portal.  It says a lot about Herb Sendek and what his guys think of him.  He also has Stewart returning back to SC after a one year stint at LSU.  Schertz offense is as efficient as they come, but again, how quickly can they the Bills get everyone on the same page.  Experience and continuity win again for me.

I'll have a couple more games a bit later on.  GL everyone.

Good luck this year IA!

@beats723

 He knew well before warm ups that he was gonna go. It's dumb.  And now Niagara is shooting 85% so its been a great start to the night.

And looks like Elvis is playing. Wonderful.  They need to do something about "game time decisions" and having to declare in or out, well before tip, instead of 5 mins.

@River_fish

 none taken.  I appreciate any and all feedback.  Stop by more often.

@BLACK4040

 The tempo will be there for the over, but I'd play the under if I was playing anything.  Not sure Cuse guards will be able to get what they want, although both Mintz and Spalding are very good.

@totter

 you too bud

@Fuse

@IAdecimal5

@River_fish

 very valid point.  I'll take IU by 4, but looks like it might be 24.

6-2 yesterday.

Minnesota +4.5 @ Indiana

The Gophers should have everyone in the Big10s attention by now, but with the Hoosiers having Purdue on deck, they may not be fully invested mentally in this game.

Dayton @ Duquesne -1.5

Sounds like Kobe Elvis isn't gonna be able to go, and that is bad news for the Flyers.  

Fairfield -2.5 @ Niagara

Niagara plays zero defense, and Caleb Fields dropped 33 on Marist last week.  They start four guys that score in double figures.  Not sure this one stays close.

Siena @ Canisius -8.5

Siena makes the list for auto-fade right now as they have dropped 9 of their last 10 and haven't won a game since December 1st.  They are really bad.  Canisius isn't great, but at least offensively they are capable. 

Wright St @ Youngstown St Over 164.5

Wright St overs until I die.  They score at an unbelievable rate. Back to back games in the 100s.

Nebraska @ Iowa -4.5

Tough spot for the Huskers.  Coming off the Purdue win, and now have to go to Iowa on a Friday night??? Carver-Hawkeye will be BUMPING tonight....mostly cause there is nothing else to do in Iowa. 

Good luck everyone

Probably really good fade material right now. 3-5 yesterday. No time for write ups today.

Stony Brook @ Towson -4.5

FAU @ Tulane Over 161.5

Michigan @ Maryland Under 140.5

Western Illinois @ UT-Martin -6.5

UCLA @ Utah -8.5

Michigan St @ Illinois Over 149.5

Stanford @ Oregon St +4.5

Arizona St @ Washington -6.5

Good Luck everyone

@TKOOOOOOOOOOOO

@Foregoose

 good luck tonight

@Coloneljim

 same to you colonel

@ClarkKentBets1

 Jimerson would  be my pick for their best player, but getting Parker back is huge for them.  Likely not gonna get a ton of mins in the first game or two though.

If I ever try to bet Pitt again, someone shoot me. 4-3 yesterday.

Northwestern -1.5 @ Penn St

Because NW takes such good care of the ball and have meaningful offensive possessions, I think they can go on the road and beat a Penn St team that has to turn you over to have success.  They don't score the ball well enough to be a favorite against anyone right now, in my opinion.

Mercer @ Wofford -4.5

Mercer in on the 3rd leg of a 3 game road trip to start conference play, and that is pretty brutal.  Wofford takes a lot of shot, but they make a lot of shots too, and with Mercer not really emphasizing defense...at all...I think Wofford gets what they want at home, and roll to an easy W.

Wright St @ Robert Morris Over 158.5

Off the top of my head I can't think of team that is polar opposites when it comes to  both ends of the floor.  Wright St can and will score with anyone, and literally doesn't care if the other team scores.  It's like a lay up line for opposing teams.  But Tanner Holden is a scoring machine, and his teammates like to join in the fun.  Just put up 100 at IUPU-FW, and have scored at least 80 in 8 of their last 10.

Tennessee @ Mississippi St Under 137.5

Last night we got two of the best defensive teams on the same court in Houston and Iowa St, and tonight we get the same.  Both teams place a priority on defense, and can go stretches of time without scoring.  The line, like last night, also seems like a beg to take the favored team, but I'm not falling into that trap again.  This is the highest posted total in a matchup between these two since 2019 as well.  Fun game to watch if you like hard nosed defense. 

Louisville @ Miami FL -16.5

100% fade of Louisville and the disaster that is their basketball program.  They are covering 30% of their games.  I like my chances. 

St. Josephs -4.5 @ St. Louis

SLU just isn't good.  Travis Ford is coming under a ton of heat.  His son is creating burner Twitter accounts to support his dad, and being found out about it.  Its just time for SLU to move on. Mike Meadows is questionable to go tonight, and nothing from local media has said that he will go.  When it rains, it pours for the Billikens this year.

Murray St @ Missouri St -5.5

The Bears are in desperate need of a conference win to avoid going 0-3, while the Racers are looking to stay perfect in conference play.  The line opened at 3.5 and has already moved 2 points, so I'm not getting the best number, but I think the writing is on the wall, you're gonna get a desperate basketball team tonight in Springfield. 

Indiana St @ Drake Over 155.5

Lots of offense.  Not lots of defense. 

Good luck everyone, and Go Heels!

Hated Saturday so much that I took the next two days off.  

Miami OH @ Buffalo -1.5

Buffalo doesn't do a ton of things well...but they do rebound a whole hell of a lot better than Miami does, and that's the difference for me.  

Missouri @ Kentucky -11.5

Dennis Gates is doing a great job up in Columbia overall, but this year has been a struggle, and will continue to be.  Recruits are on the way, Tiger fans just need to hang on for a year or two and all will be good.  Missouris NIL laws are helping the Tigers land all kinds of top recruits. They will also be without back up PG Anthony Robinson, so a short bench gets shorter.  I wouldn't be shocked in the least if Kentucky wins by 30.

Houston -2.5 @ Iowa St.

The craziest of things tend to happen in Ames, Iowa, and I almost didn't play this game because of it.  But I can't come up with a reason why an experienced (especially at guard) team, can't come in here and take care of business against a Cyclone team that has yet to play anyone of real significance (I don't put Oklahoma in that category yet).  First Big12 away game for the Cougs, but Cryer has played in the this conference and Shead has been around too long to care about that shit.  It will be the game that get my attention at 6pm.

Indiana @ Rutgers Under 140.5

This one is pretty simple for me.  IU has, for years now, struggled offensively when they head to Rutgers. In this game last year, they managed to score 48 points. The visit prior?  50.  Followed by 63, 50 and 58.  The Rack, as it used to be affectionately known as, is a really tough place to play, and add on Rutgers in your face defense, and it's likely to produce low offensive outputs.  Rutgers offense sucks too. 

Texas AM @ Auburn -7.5

I'll almost always back Auburn at home, as they play so much faster and shoot so much better once the crowd gets into the game.  Tonight should be no different, and the Aggies come in reallllly struggling to shoot the ball. First conference game on the road is in Neville Arena??  Yikes.

Duke @ Pittsburgh +5.5

I'm backing the Panthers tonight, for the same reasons I backed them against UNC, despite them shooting 5-28 from 3 in that one.  They can't possibly shoot it that bad again.  Can't possibly.  Duke hasn't covered on the road yet, and I personally don't think they are that good.  Yes, it's in my blood to say things like that, but I believe it this year.

BYU @ Baylor -4.5

BYUs numbers are off the charts good...until the strength of schedule gets looked at.  BYUs first road game as a member of the Big12 and they have to go into Foster Pavillion for Baylors first home conference game.  This isn't the mid-majors anymore Cougs, blowout city headed their way.  They haven't seen a team yet this year that would come close  (ehhh maybe San Diego St) to being equivalent in the physicality they are about to experience.  I don't think they will know how to react.

That's it for me.  Good luck everyone.

Appreciate it guys.  I guess I just need more it! lol my fucking book is having a good weekend.  Luckily Miami/WF went to OT.  Here are some plays to fade tonight:

Liberty -3.5 @ Western Kentucky

UCF @ Kansas St Under 138.5

Duke @ Notre Dame Over 133.5

Ohio St -1.5 @ Indiana

Utah +12.5 @ Arizona

Colorado St @ Utah St Over 150.5

Santa Clara -2.5 @ Pepperdine

California @ UCLA Under 136.5

Good luck everyone.  I'm gonna start drinking things away.