systematrix

Winning percentage .120 or worst in weeks 6 & later, getting more than 7 points on more than 7 days of rest = 19-0 ATS

St.Louis +14.5

Winless after bye, losing by less than 21 on average, in week 6 & latter, if they lost last game by 3 or more are 23-0 ats against teams with at least one win and at least one loss.

In weeks 5 & later, the underdog in the Miami/NYJ series is 17-1 ATS if the opponent is hotter (or less cold) and has the better record.

MIAMI +7, huge bet.

underdogs after a road loss of more than 30 points are 70-29 ATS.

third straight away after at least one win: 24-41 ATS.

Tampa Bay +7 (buy 1)

More later...

Teams with a 3-1 record in week 5, winning 3 in a row are only 4-12 ATS when favored by more than 5 and less than 7 points. That is the exact same situation that happened to New Orleans last year when they started the season 3-1, went to Arizona in week 5 and lost outright as a 6.5 pts chalk. I believe that Carolina this season is a little bit better than Arizona last season, and the Saints are just about as good as they were last year at this point of the season. The Saints are actually 1-8 ATS with a winning percentage of .750 as long as not huge favorites of more than 9 points. They also lost straight up in 6 of those 9 games. Carolina 28 New Orleans 24. I am stil going to buy half point here to get Carolina +7 as my play. 

Seattle is not known for good performances when playing in the Eastern Time Zone. 1-3 teams getting more than a touchdown are 0-14 straight up as long as they are not losers of 3 straight games.The Giants surprised many with wins against Eagles and Cardinals, but thats what Giants do. They love to play well when they look to be down and to play poorly when they are on an upswing. Which Giants team will show up this week, the one that won against Philadelphia or the one that lost at Washington. No one really knows that, but even that team that lost to Washington should be able to edge Seattle in a 1PM game. NYG 27 Seattle 17. No play.

1-3 teams that play against another non winning team, but better than 1-3 are 17-11 SU and 20-7-1 ATS. And when they are favored, they are 7-1 SU and ATS. Cincinnati won an emotional game last week as they beat a team that dominated them in the past, and they did it after trailing 17-3 at the half. They are in a letdown situation here and their opponent is desperate. 2-2 teams in week 5 are 20-36 ATS against losing teams as well as 16-32 ATS if their opponent lost last game. Jaxonville 27 Cincinnati 21. Jacksonville moneyline is the play.

1-3 teams getting 2 to 9 points are 30-14 ATS. When they are off two or three losses, and on the road, they are 11-0 ATS and 9-2 SU. Arizona is playing well for a 1-3 team, and Minnesota is playing like a 0-4 team. Some will tell us that Minnesota could have been a 4-0 team, which is true, but they are 0-4 for a reason. They have no clue how to finish the game. Last week they had an early lead, once again, and they lost again. Four losses in such a fashion will hurt your confidence and moral big time. Winless teams facing .250 teams are 0-3 SU and ATS when favored, if the .250 team lost 2 or more in a row. Arizona 24 Minnesota 21. The play is Arizona +3.

1-3 teams of two or more losses are also 12-0 ATS is they are not a double digit dog.They are also 6-0 SU and ATS if they lost two in a row, and their opponent is a winning team with at least 1 loss, comming off of a win. The Chargers are 6-13 ATS in last 20 when hotter and better than the opponent (better=better record). The Broncos are 9-1-1 ATS as home dogs against hotter and better teams. Last season San Diego went to Oakland to face a desperate 1-3 Raiders team. They were favored by 6 and lost the game outright. I can see that scenario happen again this season, this time in Denver. Denver 28 San Diego 24. Denver +4 is my play.

1-3 teams losing two or three in a row are 6-2 ATS and SU but 0-2 SU and ATS if opponent is off of a loss. However, these teams were never favored, and Philadelphia is favored at Buffalo. As for 3-1 teams, they are 0-6 SU and ATS if underdogs of 1.5 to 3 points. The Eagles are just too talented to go 1-4. I am not saying that it can not happen. I am saying that the odds are in their favor here. 1-3 teams were favored against 3-1 teams only once in week 5 and the 1-3 team won a close one. I expect that to happen here as well. Philadelphia 24 Buffalo 21. No play.

1-3 teams not losing two or three straight are 3-13 SU and 4-11-1 ATS as pkem to +5, including 1-8 SU and 2-6 ATS on the road. But I just dont have a good feeling about the Colts after playing hard against better opponents in two straight prime time games. I will not be surprised if KC wins this game, but I can say the same thing about Indiana winning this game.The best thing is to avoid this game all together. No play.

I am completely ignoring two more games this week, as I have no clue who will cover the NE/NY and SF/TB games. New England should win but not sure about the cover. As for the SF/TB game I believe that TB is the better team but they played two improtant games in a row and could be in bad spot this week going across the country against a surprising SF team.

3-1 teams underdogs of 1.5-3 points are 0-6 SU and ATS. So, Tennessee in not a good position here. They lost last three as underdogs against teams with less wins and with worst form. Pittsburgh won 7 in a row against better and hotter teams. Pittsburgh 17 Tennessee 14. No play.

3-1 teams not winning 3 in a row are 4-12 ATS laying 5.5 to 7 points. Houston won against Pittsburgh last week and it was one of their biggest wins in their frenchise history. They also won against Oakland last season. But thats exactly a situation they did not like in the past. When they play against revenge, after a win, and before a revenge, they are 0-7 SU all time and 0-6 ATS in last 6 as long as it is not weeks 16 or 17, weeks that have been meaningless for Houston in the past. Houston 28 Oakland 27. The play is Oakland +6.

Stil working on SNF and MNF and if I like something I will post it here. Good luck all !!!

Syracuse played two OT games in a row and now they are on the road to play against an out of conference opponent. Horrible spot to be in, especially for a team that turned the ball over 5 times in its last game. They are 2-10 SU and ATS after an OT game and 0-6 ATS when favored after an OT game. Tulane was clearly tired last week as they played their third straight road contest, and Army is not the kind of team you want to face in that situation because of their ground game. Expect a different kind of effort from Tulane this week. And by the way, road teams that played 2 ot games in previous two weeks without any extra rest are 0-8 SU and 0-8 ATS as long as they were not a big 16+ pts favorite the week before. Syracuse is going down this week and they are going down hard. Take Tulane +10 points.

In first 5 games of the season, teams not on extra rest are 18-2 ATS if they won two games in a row including a road OT win in their last game as a dog or small favorite of no more than 6.5 points. Air Force is playing great football right now, and they will give UND everything they can handle and then some. When UND meets AF, the road team is cash. 7 straight ATS wins for the road team in this series. Air Force is not turning into a passing team any time soon, but they are learning how to take advantage of their passing game when everyone expects them to run. In last three games AF passers are 34/46, good for 5 touchdowns and no interceptions. Notre Dame played Purdue last week, but they dont like being in the favorite role after playing Purdue. 7-15-1 ATS in last 23. Take Air Force +16 points.

Minnesota looked like a high school team last week. Actually, they looked like a high school team in every game so far this season. But if their home losses to New Mexico State and North Dakota State were not wake-up calls, then a 0-58 loss to Michigan definately is. College teams usually respond to losses like this one better than to an upset loss. In weeks 3-10, road teams that lost their previous conference game without scoring, and allowing 24-60 points are 84-42 ATS. And if they lost another game before that, they are 52-22 ATS. Lucky break for Minnesota is that Purdue played Notre Dame last week and they are 0-7 ATS in last 7 in this situation. Last season they played WIL after Notre Dame and won by only 10. In 2009 they were favored by a TD against NWST after playing ND but lost outright. And so on. Minnesota QB not playing could actually be a good thing for them in this situation. With him being out/questionnable, they will need everyone else to step up, especially after that humiliating loss to Michigan. Take Minnesota +10.5 points.

Enjoy your weekend friends !

Good luck !

depends on the systems you are using. gl bud

***Your feedback is welcome, but please do not tell me that a bad team can not cover the spread against a good team. This is a gambling forum, and in gambling, bad teams cover the spread just as often as good teams. Actually, in last 18 years losing teams are 874-815 ATS against winning teams***

New Orleans is stil relying mostly on their offense and Jacksonville has been a stellar defensive team so far, both against the run and against the pass. New Orleans hasnt been on the road in three weeks & Jacksonville hasnt been at home in three weeks and that is usually a situational edge for the home team. Home dogs of more than 4 points after two road losses of 10 points or more combined are 15-0 ats against teams that played at least two home games in a ror and won the last one as favorite. With two divisional road games comming up for New Orleans, this game looks less important for them. Jacksonville usually plays much better at home than on the road. Last week they played in horrible weather conditions with their rookie QB making his first NFL start. This week they are at home and will be pumped up to get their new leader his first NFL win. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +7

Buffalo is the biggest surprise so far this season in the NFL, at least record wise. But Cincinnati is surprising too with the way they play and compete. They are 1-2 but they were in position to win all three games so far, all that with a rookie QB and a banged up team that lost some key players from last season. The Bills have a great streak going on against the Bengals but after their win against New England and before playing Eagles and Giants in the next two weeks, they are in a bad situation this week. The favorites that won their last game as home dogs trailing after the third are 4-16 ATS. Buffalo won their last game against new England many years ago, and they are due for a letdown here. Their win was extremely emotional and even the best teams out there are prone to letdowns in such situations. CINCINNATI BENGALS +3.

It is really refreshing to see the Redskins playing well, especially with less superstars on that roster than usual. But after playing their big rivals on MNF last week, they have to refocus and play a winless Saint Louis team on the road, and that is not going to e easy. The underdog covered 8 of last 10 in this series. Winless teams with at least 2 straight ATS losses, losing their games by 14 or more on average and losing their last game as a dog of more than 3 points are 19-0 ATS vs teams with at least one win on the season. Winless teams are usually good bets ATS as the season goes on, especially when on negative ATS streak. The longer their winless streak goes, the better they are against the spread. Simple logic applies there. Most of the NFL bettors are looking at SU records only. The problem is, winless teams cover the spread too. SAINT LOUIS RAMS +3 (BUY 0.5)

It is unusual to see two non divisional teams that play each other two straight seasons, both times in same venue, especially during the regular season. Atlanta won at Seattle last year and they are back there again this season. The favorites in this situation are 1-10 ATS if they won and covered that previous meeting and if the opponent is comming into this game after a win. Seattle is not playing well, but their defense is bailing them out. They only allowed 5 offensive touchdowns in 3 games and they are ranked #3 in defensive 3rd down % in the entire league. Atlanta played against a divisional opponent last week and a SNF game the week before, and next week they host the defending champs Green Bay Packers. The things are just not going their way this season, especially on the road where they outgained both opponents but lost both games. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS +4.5

The Vikings are 0-3 after leading 17-0 and 20-0 at the half in their last two games, both at home, and 17-7 in week #1 at San Diego. I can understand why many expect them to win at KC this week. They are a team that could have been 3-0, and KC is 0-3 without really challenging anyone so far. OK, maybe they came close last week against SD, but thats it. Then why then opened -1 against presumably the worst team in the NFL ? Because it is not easy to focus after such a horrible three game stretch. It is actually the first time in 20+ years that a team lost three straight after leading by at least 10 at the half in all three games. And it wasnt like any other loss for them. They lost to a team that they beat 13 straight times at home prior to last week, and they lost it in overtime. Road teams that lost in OT the week before after leading by 12 or more at the half and after scoring 10 or less in the 2nd half are 0-10 SU and 1-9 ATS. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS +3 (BUY 0.5)

in that game #10 cincy was favored by 30 points on the road but they led by only 10 four minutes into the fourth quarter. miami of ohio had more first downs, red short freshman dysert, playing in his 2nd start ever, had more passing yards and 10 more passing completions than tony pike, and cincinnati was frustrated for the most part of that game as evidenced by the 7 penalties for 85 yards. miami kept the ball for over 40 minutes while cincinnati had it for 19+ minutes. miami tried an onside kick down 10 in the fourth, got the ball, and that drive went all the way down to the cincinnati 3 yards line and ended with an interception in the end zone. so, they were close to cut it down to 3 with about 5 minutes left in the 4th as a 30 pts dog. and by the way, cincinnati got off to an early lead only because miami had a 6 yards punt and then also a missed fake punt at their own 27 yards line that resulted in two quick tds for cincinnati early on. if you are serious about this biz, then you have to look a little bit deeper. it is not enough to look at the score only. and if you didnt know, this is one of the oldest rivaleries in the country, and taking 2 tds with the home team led by a junior qb who has the experience is the only way to go. can cioncinnati cover this line ? sure they can. but your are not getting any value laying 2 tds on the road in a rivalery.

We all have different approaches. YTD stats and players on the field (especially in the NFL) often mean very little in the league where any team can win on any given Sunday. The Patriots looked legit going to Buffalo last week while Buffalo looked overrated after beating a bad KC team and an average Oakland team. Yet Buffalo won that game as a sizeable dog. The best approach in the NFL is to look at the stats, situations, and every other info avaiable without giving too much credit to any of this. Once you are able to ballance all that info and use it as your advantage you will win money. Without that ballance NFL can be a pain in the ass for the bettors.

Quote Originally Posted by Torreny3:

Can you make a new thread for this week's plays? It's much easier to read than scrolling through pages of an old thread. Enjoyed reading your thread last week, looking forward to checking out this weeks.

Its much easier for me to keep it in one thread, as long as that thread is not too long. If it gets too crowded I will start a new one.

Full card for this week:

SOUTHERN METHODIST +11.5

MIAMI OF OHIO +14

IOWA STATE +10

SAN JOSE STATE +3

KANSAS +7

FWIW, I am not a CFB specialist, as I focus a lot more on NFL. I spend about 40 hours a week capping NFL and just about 20 hours capping CFB. So, please bet accordingly. Good luck !

One late add...

Texas Tech struggling on defense is going on the road after playing two extreme cupcakes and one team that lost almost all talent from last year. They got outgained big time against Nevada, and needed a lot of energy and effort to win that game. In week 1 they were owned by Texas State for almost three full quarters. Their only easy win this season came against one of the worst CFB teams in last 3 seasons, New Mexico. So far this season they are not playing well enough to be favored on the road against anyone in the Big 12. Unbeaten road favorites of 15 or less, with records from 3-0 to 8-0, are 0-22 ats against conference revenge of 15-26 pts, if they play a home conference revenge next week. KANSAS +7 buy half point.

Week 4 plays will be posted in this same thread. Good luck all.

Yes but I am not taking ORST.

Colorado State picked up a big win last week in overtime against Utah State and now face another non conference opponent before clashing with Boise two weeks from now. Taugh situation for Colorado State, especially since they are banged up and SJSU just played their best game in a while last week. This is definately their softest spot of the schedule after playing a close game against their rivals Colorado and that OT game in Utah State in back-to-back weeks. Those soft spot can be really hard to overcome. Favorites that won their last game in OT as +7.5 to +13.5 dogs, while scoring 21 or more are 0-11 ATS. The play is SAN JOSE STATE +3

Thats it for this week. I will post my NFL plays later this week in that same thread from last week. Good luck.

In this rivalery game SMU covered the spread in 6 of last 8 meetings. I know that SMU played two cupcakes last two weeks but their wins were stil impressive. They were especially impressive on defense as they allowed no points against Memphis and only 7 points against NWST. Those 7 points allowed to NWST came with just over a minute left when SMU led 40-0. And by the way, those 7 NWST points came as a result of a fumble recovery returned for a 93 yards TD. SMU allowed 7 first downs in each of last two games. As for TCU, they are stil talented but not as talented as they were last two or three seasons. Underdogs that allowed 26 or less last week, 15 or less the week before, and scored 35 or more in last week and the week before are 90-38 ATS. SOUTHERN METHODIST +11.5

Another rivalery game and another dog for me. Unlike in the TCU/SMU series where the underdog had a lot of success in the past, this is a series where the favorite and the better known school had a lot of success in previous matchups. However, when these two teams play at Miami of Ohio, the home side is much more competitive. The last time Cincy was there, they had one of their best teams ever and struggled a lot against one of the worst teams ever. Back then Cincinnati was perfect in the regular season while Miami of Ohio finished 1-11 and had no wins and 4 losses going into the game against the Bearcats.  Winless underdogs that lost their last game by 8 or more as home favorites of more than a FG and less than a TD are 26-3 ATS. MIAMI OF OHIO +14 -120

Texas is doing better this season than last season but so is Iowa State. Iowa State beat Iowa in overtime and then went to UCON on short rest and won as a dog there too. That tells me all I need to know about the caracter of their team. They are now well rested, they believe, and they have a hated conference rival in a big look-ahead situation. Some of the worst upsets Texas suffered in recent years came before their game against Oklahoma. And next week it is their big game against the Sooners. Perfect spot for another upset. McCoy is inexperienced and you dont want to have an inexperienced on-field leader before a huge game. Unbeaten Texas teams are 6-15 ATS against other unbeaten teams  IOWA STATE +10 -115