TexasD

Sara Errani and her Italian doubles partner, Vinci, passed on their semifinal doubles match to conserve energy for Errani's championship singles match of pavlyuchenkova. I don't believe they would make such a decision if Errani didn't think she had a good chance to beat Pavly. Dummy me, I'd probably try to win BOTH titles, too competitive for me to wave a white flag like France...

Flipkens needs to stop emptying the syrup jar on her Belgium waffles...lol

So far, the odds of point-buying helping a bankroll have been LOWER than the average of the previous 58 days and 1,990 games. Also there were no pushes on the original spreads, which doesn't help people who buy points.

Best of Luck

I don't need to put money on Radwanska to enjoy watching her...she is fricken gorgeous.

Thanks for the post bk1374

#1 As a few of us have mentioned in a few posts above, it obviously depends on THE ODDS and I've mentioned how books usually don't Sell at the same rate of Buying. Buying on average in books is 10 cents per 1/2 point and many times much higher than 10 cents as you buy more and more points while I've seen points sold for 3-7 cents per 1/2 point sold.

What I meant by buying and selling being "inverse" was the ODDS and PROBABILITIES.  What the books DO have control of is the JUICE and RATE at which they allow selling and buying of points.

#2 The BIGGEST difference between Buying and Selling is that when you BUY points...you are NOT CONFIDENT in the play that you are BUYING POINTS!  And if you are NOT CONFIDENT...IT IS A WEAK PLAY!

If you are SELLING POINTS, you are CONFIDENT enough to SELL POINTS and lower the odds of winning while raising your profit on a win.

Buying Points = WEAK Play
Selling Points = Strong Play

#3 Yes, there are no "key numbers" like in football as I've shown in older threads of point-buying in basketball.  The increments of points in basketball are LINEAR and come as 1, 2, or 3 points.  Football on the other hand are 3 and 7...
 
While in basketball, buying points is a waste of money and more of a "buying peace of mind" type of buy, buying points in football around or on 3 and 7 IS ADVANTAGEOUS.

Cut and paste or go to the NFL Forum on covers here:

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=101556424

#4 10% juice on an original spread is NOT that difficult to make a profit.  You only have to win over 52.5% to make up for the juice.  Win 53 out of 100 straight bets at the same of money risked and you have made a profit.

Now,...If you are smart and shop around or use a book like 5 Dimes that has "reduced juice" of straight bets, it makes it even easier to profit.

5 Dimes has "nickle" bets of -105 for straight bets.

#5 I wasn't trying to disagree or say you were wrong or anything...Just spelling out MY thoughts.

I appreciate when people post their ideas, thoughts, opinions, stats, etc.

All opinions, comments, ideas, etc are welcomed.

\/------ 52 NCAA Tournament Games of Rd 1-3 ------\/

Tuesday, March 19th, 2013 through Sunday, March 24th, 2013

52 games
104 sides
0 original pushes
9 games finished between -0.5 to -3 points off original spread

All stats taken from vegasinsider . com as it was easier to sift through data because they had only Division 1 college basketball games listed.

Buy 0.5 point (-120)
3 (2.88%) loses to pushes
0 (0.00%) pushes to wins
3 (2.88%) total bets affected by buying 0.5 point

Buy 1 point (-130)
1 (0.96%) pushes
3 (2.88%) wins
4 (3.85%) total bets affected by buying 1 point

Buy 1.5 points (-140)
1 (0.96%) pushes
4 (3.85%) wins
5 (4.81%) total bets affected by buying 1.5 points

Buy 2 points (-155)
3 (2.88%) pushes
5 (4.81%) wins
8 (7.69%) total bets affected by buying 2 points

Buy 2.5 points (-175)
1 (0.96%) pushes
8 (7.69%)wins
9 (8.65%) total bets affected by buying 2.5 points

Buy 3 points (-195)
0 (0.00%) pushes
9 (8.65%) wins
9 (8.65%) total bets affected by buying 3 points

People have brought up that "they only pick the games that matter" as if they are psychic or something, but in the reality of the situation, IT DOESN'T MATTER HOW YOU BUY THEM,...BUYING ANY AMOUNT OF POINTS IN ANY SITUATION IN ANY FORM OF BASKETBALL HAS A NEGATIVE EFFECT TO YOUR BANK ROLL. A few people stated that they "only buy the hook" or half point, whereas the 0.5 point data shows that there is NO advantage to only buying 0.5 points as compared to any other amount.  The bottom line is that the amount of added juice you pay on your bets IS NOT GREATER than the amount of money "saved" by extra wins or pushes. A few people have believed that "only buying points on games that have low ORIGINAL SPREADS" as compared to buying points on games with higher original spreads is profitable...BUT after doing statistical data on games of PUSH to 3 points of original spread and then buying 0.5 to 3 points on them, showed NO difference in probabilities or anything near being profitable. A few people have thought that "buying games to 7 points" was profitable to them where 7 points is a "3-score game" and teams "give-up" at that number, the stats and research STILL said that buying points was ANYTHING NEAR being PROFITABLE.  Though the stats DID show that MORE BETS were affected by buying points to 7 than buying to 6 or 8 points (approximately twice as much chances), it DID NOT SHOW A HIGH ENOUGH PROBABILITY to SAVE MORE MONEY through more pushes and wins THAN THE ADDED JUICE PAID ON ALL BETS. ALL COMMENTS, THOUGHTS, OR OPINIONS WELCOMED. DISCUSSIONS AVAILABLE,......ARGUMENTS, CHILD'S PLAY, AND BELITTLING UNWANTED AND NOT NECESSARY. THANK YOU

I apologize, yes, I did read you wrong...sorry Train, thought you said no value and no value...and as I've said before about Selling is that it depends on what they Sell the points for.  Usually books don't Sell for As Much as they allow buying points.

LuckyThanSmart...yeh, obviously it depends on what you are buying the points for...my stats are based on 10 cents per 1/2 point and then they get more expensive as you buy more.

If you have a local that only charges 12% for the 1 point, it probably is worth it...I'm really not up to the task of running the calculations on it now, but pretty sure only 12% on 1 point is worth it.

Pho-20...you make me hungry every time I see your avatar pic...mmmmmm

TRAIN69...we've gone over this before, you are welcome to look into it if you would like to know, but saying that there is no value in Buying Points and then saying that...."inherently"....there would be no value in Selling Points is a bad assumption when technically Selling Points would be an INVERSE of the statistical data of Buying....so a quick-draw hypothesis would be that Selling Points would HAVE VALUE if Buying Points does NOT.

While point-buying in basketball is a waste of time, I've done statistical data on buying 1/2 point around and on spreads of 3 or 7 in the LAST 7 YEARS OF REGULAR SEASON NFL GAMES that has proven to be BENEFICIAL to a bankroll and indeed is advantageous.

You can find the NFL data here is anybody is interested and would like to bump it:

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=101556424

I'm getting the NCAA Tournament data ready right now and will post soon.

If he is interested in the info he will click on this thread.  I honestly am not here to Preach and belittle people who DO buy points,...I just put it out there for people who like to MAKE money.  I'm not going to give you POYs, POMs, POWs, or PODs...knowing that buying points is a waste of money is up to the people who gamble.

Not only is it a waste of money buying points in any form of basketball, but it ALSO SHOWS HOW WEAK OF A PLAY/BET IT IS....:

IF YOU ARE THAT UNSURE OF A PLAY/BET AND YOU THINK THAT THE GAME WILL BE THAT CLOSE TO THE ORIGINAL SPREAD THAT YOU ARE BUYING POINTS....WHY ARE YOU EVEN BETTING ON THE GAME?!?!?!?

THERE ARE BETTER BETS ON THE BOARDS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

OVER 24 BIG!!!  Huge serves and when they have played, they have had set tie-breakers 4 out of 7 sets that they have played against each other.

2 TBs or 3 sets...

\/------Overall FINAL Regular Season of NCAA Basketball Stats------\/

Saturday, January 19th, 2013 through Sunday, March 17, 2013

58 days
1,990 games
3,980 sides
40 original pushes
472 games finished between -0.5 to -3 points off original spread

All stats taken from vegasinsider . com as it was easier to sift through data because they had only Division 1 college basketball games listed.

Buy 0.5 point (-120)
96 (2.41%) loses to pushes
39 (0.98%) pushes to wins
135 (3.39%) total bets affected by buying 0.5 point

Buy 1 point (-130)
89 (2.24%) pushes
135 (3.39%) wins
224 (5.63%) total bets affected by buying 1 point

Buy 1.5 points (-140)
61 (1.53%) pushes
224 (5.63%) wins
285 (7.16%) total bets affected by buying 1.5 points

Buy 2 points (-155)
85 (2.14%) pushes
285 (7.16%) wins
370 (9.30%) total bets affected by buying 2 points

Buy 2.5 points (-175)
70 (1.76%) pushes
370 (9.30%)wins
440 (11.06%) total bets affected by buying 2.5 points

Buy 3 points (-195)
71 (1.78%) pushes
440 (11.05%) wins
511 (12.84%) total bets affected by buying 3 points

LET'S SEE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A GAMBLER THAT DOESN'T BUY THE POINTS AND A GAMBLER THAT DOES BUY THE POINTS:

A 50/50 bettor that risked $110 on -110 odds to win $100 buying the original spreads on the games, picking 1 team of the last 1,964 games in the last 8 weeks, would have won 963, lost 962, and pushed on 39.

1,964 - 39 pushes = 1,925
1,925 divided by 2 = 962.5
wins rounded up to 963
loses rounded down to 962

963 wins x $100 = $96,300
962 loses x $110 = $105,820

($96,300 in winnings) - ($105,820 in losses) = total loss of $9,520

------------------------------------------------------------------------

A 50/50 bettor that risked $120 on -120 to win $100 buying 1/2 point on 1 team of the last 1,964 games in the last 8 weeks:

(963 wins + 39 pushes that turn into wins buying 1/2 point) x $100 = $100,200 in winnings

962 loses - (approximately 47 games that would have lost by 1/2 point that turned into a push [1,925 x probability of 2.42% = 46.585]) = 915
915 x $120 = $109,800 in losses

($100,200 in winnings) - ($109,800 in losses) = total loss of $9,600

------------------------------------------------------------------

CONCLUSION: Overall the $9,600 loss by buying the points had NO ADVANTAGE TO MAKING MORE MONEY. Rather it actually lost a small $80 by buying the points and that was with me rounding the WINS UP and the LOSSES DOWN and rounding the amount of games that lost by 1/2 point UP.  All rounding was to be beneficial to buying points and it still came out losing money. 

The amount of $80 is rather insignificant as winning or pushing on just ONE extra game anywhere would change the small loss into a positive profit, though the result would still be insignificant to the amount of money used in the example.

It pretty much boils down to what BarcsHasBite was reiterating:

If you think a game is going to be THAT CLOSE to the original spread that you want to buy points, why are you even thinking of betting on the game?!?!?  THERE ARE BETTER BETS ON THE BOARD!!!!!

SOMETHING TO NOTE FROM THE 8 WEEKS OF DATA:

A lot of people think that Oddsmakers are good at what they do...that is true to a point.  Oddsmakers are there to put out a line that brings in around even amounts of bets on each side of the game.  The MYTH is that they are trying to predict the team that will win and by how much by putting out Spreads.  They also put out Totals for the game which is about the predicted amount of points that both teams will score in a game.

If you look at the 8 weeks of data, out of 1,964 games, only 39 ended as original pushes on the spreads that were given.

That means that only about 2 out of 100 games push.

That really put it into perspective for me.

Stat Corrections from post #2 on Last 2 Weeks of data (corrected in red):

Buy 1.5 points
16 (1.53%) pushes

Buy 2 points
27 (2.58%) pushes

\/------Overall Full 8 Weeks of NCAA Basketball Stats------\/

8 Weeks: Saturday, January 19th, 2013 through Friday, March 15, 2013

1,964 games
3,928 sides
39 original pushes
467 games finished between -0.5 to -3 points off original spread

All stats taken from vegasinsider . com as it was easier to sift through data because they had only Division 1 college basketball games listed.

Buy 0.5 point (-120)
95 (2.42%) loses to pushes
39 (0.99%) pushes to wins
134 (3.41%) total bets affected by buying 0.5 point

Buy 1 point (-130)
89 (2.27%) pushes
134 (3.41%) wins
223 (5.68%) total bets affected by buying 1 point

Buy 1.5 points (-140)
58 (1.48%) pushes
223 (5.68%) wins
281 (7.15%) total bets affected by buying 1.5 points

Buy 2 points (-155)
84 (2.14%) pushes
281 (7.15%) wins
365 (9.29%) total bets affected by buying 2 points

Buy 2.5 points (-175)
70 (1.78%) pushes
365 (9.29%)wins
435 (11.07%) total bets affected by buying 2.5 points

Buy 3 points (-195)
71 (1.81%) pushes
435 (11.07%) wins
506 (12.88%) total bets affected by buying 3 points

People have brought up that "they only pick the games that matter" as if they are psychic or something, but in the reality of the situation, IT DOESN'T MATTER HOW YOU BUY THEM,...BUYING ANY AMOUNT OF POINTS IN ANY SITUATION IN ANY FORM OF BASKETBALL HAS A NEGATIVE EFFECT TO YOUR BANK ROLL.

A few people stated that they "only buy the hook" or half point, whereas the 0.5 point data shows that there is NO advantage to only buying 0.5 points as compared to any other amount.  The bottom line is that the amount of added juice you pay on your bets IS NOT GREATER than the amount of money "saved" by extra wins or pushes.

A few people have believed that "only buying points on games that have low ORIGINAL SPREADS" as compared to buying points on games with higher original spreads is profitable...BUT after doing statistical data on games of PUSH to 3 points of original spread and then buying 0.5 to 3 points on them, showed NO difference in probabilities or anything near being profitable.

A few people have thought that "buying games to 7 points" was profitable to them where 7 points is a "3-score game" and teams "give-up" at that number, the stats and research STILL said that buying points was ANYTHING NEAR being PROFITABLE. 

Though the stats DID show that MORE BETS were affected by buying points to 7 than buying to 6 or 8 points (approximately twice as much chances), it DID NOT SHOW A HIGH ENOUGH PROBABILITY to SAVE MORE MONEY through more pushes and wins THAN THE ADDED JUICE PAID ON ALL BETS.

ALL COMMENTS, THOUGHTS, OR OPINIONS WELCOMED.

DISCUSSIONS AVAILABLE,......ARGUMENTS, CHILD'S PLAY, AND BELITTLING UNWANTED AND NOT NECESSARY.

THANK YOU

HAD TO CHANGE MY TOPIC HEADING FOR THE FINISH OF THE COLLEGE BASKETBALL SEASON.

THESE STATS ARE FOR BUYING POINTS OF 0.5 TO 3 POINTS.

THESE ARE THE STATS FOR THE LAST 8 WEEKS

I WILL ADD THE FINAL CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT GAMES WHEN THE FINISH SOON.

I WILL FINISH WITH RUNNING THE NUMBERS OF ALL THE NCAA TOURNAMENT GAMES.

\/------Last 2 Weeks of NCAA Basketball Stats to be Added to Previous 6 Weeks------\/

2 Weeks: Saturday, March 2, 2013 through Friday, March 15, 2013

12 original pushes
132 games finished between -0.5 to -3 points off original spread
524 games
1,048 sides

All stats taken from vegasinsider . com as it was easier to sift through data because they had only Division 1 college basketball games listed.

12 Pushes
Montana @ Montana St, B Green @ Kent St, Drake @ Creigh, UC River @UCS Barb, LA Laf @ Mid TN St. UNC Greens @ Elon, Siena @ Niagara, EMBC @ Verm, Oregon St @ Color, St. Jo @ X, Wash @ Oregon, Cal Poly @ Pac.

27 by -0.5
UAB, Rice, Tex, Rice, George, Long B, Pitt, Sav St, Marq, Young, E. Car, N Color, CS Sac, Mont St., USC Upstate, Prov, UAB, Miami FL, Rice, S. Utah, N. AZ, WKU, Nev, Valp, Rutgers, C Ark, OK St., AZ St.

23 by -1
MO, N Mex, WKU, Ind, Ohio, Memphis, Char, USD, Charles S, kansas st, geo was, neb, s. ala, can, fair, s. dak st, wich st, iona, tulane, geo wash, tx am, memphis, alabama am.

16 by -1.5
pepper, usc, dayton, c mich, miss, seton, mich, s car, fair, s car, tx am, w car charles s, wash, fuller, bos coll.

27 by -2
c fl, denver, fuller, santa clara, depaul, va comm, wake, auburn, usc, la monroe, sd st, marsh, will mar, bingham, dela, syracuse, boise st, uab, tx christ, boise, dayton, tulane, pacific, kent, nm st, steph aus, tulane

16 by -2.5
nd, cincy, siena, akron, uw milw, tx st, belmont, harv, boston, butler, s miss, id st, mich, miss st, buck, del st

23 by -3
geo mas, geo wash, port, nc wilm, troy, wash, wva, uc irvine, evans, wich, idaho, delaware, gonz, il, niagara, my shor, nich st, savan, clemson, penn st, mich st, akron, w mich.

Buy 0.5 point
27 (2.58%) loses to pushes
12 (1.15%) pushes to wins
39 (3.72%) total bets affected by buying 0.5 point

Buy 1 point
23 (2.19%) pushes
39 (3.72%) wins
62 (5.92%) total bets affected by buying 1 point

Buy 1.5 points
16 (2.19%) pushes
62 (5.92%) wins
78(7.44%) total bets affected by buying 1.5 points

Buy 2 points
27 (1.53%) pushes
78 (7.44%) wins
105 (10.02%) total bets affected by buying 2 points

Buy 2.5 points
16 (1.53%) pushes
105 (10.02%)wins
121 (11.55%) total bets affected by buying 2.5 points

Buy 3 points
23 (2.19%) pushes
121 (11.55%) wins
144 (13.74%) total bets affected by buying 3 points

On 3 points, on average 13.74% of bets that normally would have been a loss or push would be either a push or a win, but on the other 86.26% of the bets, you are paying 77% MORE MONEY than "normal juiced" bets on the original spread of -110.

Paying 77% more for only 13.74% insurance!

If you think a game is going to be THAT CLOSE to the original spread that you want to buy points, why are you even thinking of betting on the game?!?!?  THERE ARE BETTER BETS ON THE BOARD!!!!!

\/------Overall Full 8 Weeks of NCAA Basketball Stats------\/

8 Weeks: Saturday, January 19th, 2013 through Friday, March 15, 2013

1,964 games
3,928 sides
39 original pushes
467 games finished between -0.5 to -3 points off original spread

All stats taken from vegasinsider . com as it was easier to sift through data because they had only Division 1 college basketball games listed.

Buy 0.5 point (-120)
95 (2.42%) loses to pushes
39 (0.99%) pushes to wins
134 (3.41%) total bets affected by buying 0.5 point

Buy 1 point (-130)
89 (2.27%) pushes
134 (3.41%) wins
223 (5.68%) total bets affected by buying 1 point

Buy 1.5 points (-140)
58 (1.48%) pushes
223 (5.68%) wins
281 (7.15%) total bets affected by buying 1.5 points

Buy 2 points (-155)
84 (2.14%) pushes
281 (7.15%) wins
365 (9.29%) total bets affected by buying 2 points

Buy 2.5 points (-175)
70 (1.78%) pushes
365 (9.29%)wins
435 (11.07%) total bets affected by buying 2.5 points

Buy 3 points (-195)
71 (1.81%) pushes
435 (11.07%) wins
506 (12.88%) total bets affected by buying 3 points