The_FallMiracle

Denver looked pretty sharp the other day on both sides of the ball, at least after the 1st quarter.   But lets also understand that Jason Kidd had 8 turnovers, which means 8 less possessions.  To give you an idea of how rare that is, it tied a career high for him, and he had just 3 turnovers the entire series with the Spurs.  You have to think Kidd will clean it up here.   But aside from the bounceback status for the fundamentally sound guard, I think you have to look at simple probability.  Anytime you play consecutive games, back to back against the same opponent with the same point spread, probability suggests a split.  Of coarse it's not automatic to just take the opposite of everything that happens in game 1, but with Dallas's leadership and knowing this may very well be their last chance to win the big one, I have to assume the Mavs will play inspired ball to attempt to get this back to Dallas tied up.  And with the Lakers losing last night, that will help Dallas's psyce but assure the Nuggs they don't have to rush.  The Nuggs are loaded and have solid bench play, especially with Chris Anderson.  But Jason Terry is as good-a-sixth man as you'll find in the NBA.  It's smaler known veteran players like this who will be called upon and hurt you the most when it's needed (reminds me of players like R.Horry- how many times did he kill a point spread with a clutch 3!).  Look for Terry to have a role from the perimeter as the Mavs may want to keep it away from Anderson the shot blocker.  Denver has won 14 straight home games, though.

 

One thing for sure- Jason Kidd will not be turning it over 8 times again, which will mean 6-7 extra possessions for the Mavs- which translates into a few more scoring opportunities. Dont get me wrong Denver is great, but it's that veteran leadership combined with a better 2nd effort and better game plan that's prevented Dallas from not having a single instance all season where they've lost consecutive games by more than 7 points.

 

Take Dallas plus the points. 

 

One thing I can add is that it's even more unlikely the Pistons will lose both games by double digits, considering they've lost just 1 game by double digits in their 27 games this season WITHOUT Iverson.  

 

so, if the Pistons cover game 1, i'd cut-and-run or reduce units in the 2nd game.

 

if they don't cover, i'd increase units in the 2nd game.  either way you come out

Pistons 15 Double digit losses with Iverson in lineup.  How many double digit losses without him?  how about just 1 (to the Lakers).  read on for details.

 

 I said back in 1996, watching Iverson throw up shot after contested shot like back alley playground ball, that he'd never win a championship.  So we know about the blockbuster trade where the Nuggets made out like a bandit.  Well this is what George Karl said about Iverson right after:

 

"I don't think there's any question coaching a team for many minutes, without a passing and point guard mentality, is frustrating for a coach.  Sometimes I saw something, but I couldn't get  it done on the court because I didn't have a playmaker out there.  Now that he's gone, there are less bad plays, more solid plays.  I think the wasteful, cheap possessions that we used to have ,10 or 15 a game, they don't exist very much anymore.  We have contested-shot charts, bad-shot charts and cheap defensive possessions.  I would say that when A.I. was here, we had most games in the teens of contested , tough shots, sometimes in the 20s.  And I don't think we've had a double digit one since Billups has been here."  

 

It wasn't hart to figure the Pistons would suffer.  With the Nuggets last season, they snuck into the playoffs but a close look reveals that Iverson's team couldn't beat the best on the road. His crew lost all but one road game to the Celtics, Pistons and best of the West (Lakers, Suns, Mavs, Spurs) and many of the losses were by 15, 20 and 30 points!  Naturally, the pattern followed when the Pistons screwed up their continuity and traded Billups away for him.   The Pistons went 15-12 without him this season, but from the 1st game he started at NJ to the last at NO on Feb. 25th, they went 23-29 with 14 double digit losses.  He did play a short stint in late March off the bench with a 1-2 team record, but after shooting 1-8 in a 13 point loss at NJ, it was time to hit the bench again.  Most importantly, let's recognize the Pistons are a 12 point dog at Cleveland (biggest dog the Pistons have ever been to Cleveland?) but they DONT HAVE IVERSON.  So now to the key stat: WIth Iverson, against playoff teams and the Phoenix Suns, the Pistons lost 10 games by double digits.  So how did they fare in the 30 games without him?  How about just 1 double digit loss to playoff teams (the Lakers), and they had a close game with Cleveland.

 

Also keep in mind the Cavs lost thier final home game which has a bigger psycholigical impact then one may think.  A rare 40-1 home record would be something the NBA would love to see preserved into the NBA finals for ratings purposes but instead falls to 39-2.  Another thing to keep in mind is, like Boston, the Cavs rested their starters in the last game.  Not a hindrence but not an advantage either, and sometimes this can take a good team out of their rythmn.  Just ask the Mavs 2 yrs. ago against the Warriors. 

 

Overall the Pistons are the 8 seed and oddsmakers are treating them as a below .500 team appropriately, but without Iverson they are a completely different and better team, which some people may not realize and that's why they're undervalued coming in.  Cleveland is great and will win the series as the NBA would love LeBron in the Finals for ratings, but look for the Pistons team (with no i) to stay within the big number in the majority of these road games now that Iverson is on the bench.  Good Luck!  TFM

This game, IMO, is a rarity.  It's like the hand at the blackjack table where you split double 8's, and get double 8's again.  Maybe I'm being too dramatic but let's look at the logistics here.  This is not the first, second, but the THIRD consecutive home game where the Kings are a double digit home dog.  I'm not sure I've ever seen that.  Certainly that doesn't mean an automatic cover, but consider they didn't cover the first 2 (vs. the Lakers last Tuesday and Houston last Thursday).  So isn't it that much more likely they'll cover this one?  you bet it is.  Now the numbers:  looking back on the decade the Kings have just once lost 3 consecutive home games by double digits.  I realize this is a bad team they've got and Kings teams were good a few years back, but look what the Warriors did the last 2 times out with a depleated roster, and covered the big number  vs. Houston as I predicted the other night.  So not only do we have that stat, we've got Sac town coming in with 3 consecutive double digit losses, most recently to the Clips.  The Kings organization has not suffered 4 consecutive DD losses in at least the last 10 years (probably ever, but I didn't feel like going back that far and checking).   Yes they just got blown out at the Clips but you have to wonder about the authenticy of such games when a team jumps out to a 20+ lead in the 1st quarter.  So I'm taking the points as it's simply statistically unlikely the pride of the Kings will allow them to drop a 3rd consecutive home game ATS as a double digit home dog. I could be wrong.  But then again, you don't always win those double 8's either (but you've got a great statistical shot). 

For a bit today this spread was actually at 10, and that was interesting because Houston was just a double digit road favorite last night at Sacramento, but covered.  So having them back-2-back consecutive DD road favs is simply a great reason to go with the Warriors because it's unlikely Houston would cover 2 in a row like that.  But even since the spread is down to 8 or 9, I still like the Warriors in this spot.  Their season is over but like most young teams, they like to run and I'm not sure Houston (and especially Yao) can keep up with that.  Houston already scored 110+ pts last night.  So I checked, and they only did that 11 other times this season.  But they were 2-8-1 ATS in the next game after scoring 110+ which means they don't like to run (especially twice on the road???).  Also, there's one more telling tale I like, aside from the fact that GS is 20-18 at home and the Rockets are below .500 on the road, the spread is way off.  But like I said, what I really like about this game is that GS has lost just 3 home games all season by double digits- and 2 of those games were by 11 points.   I'm taking the points here.

Take the Hornets and Rockets

 

The last time I did a "double trouble" write up, it was NIT with Creighton (-2) and Bradley (-3 vs. Oakland) defending great non-conference home records and I said both wouldn't lose on the same night.  I was right, but Bradley didn't cover the 3 point spread and we saw Creighton get a breakaway steal from Kentucky with 7 seconds left, already up 2 points.  But a layup-saving jersey grab by Jodi Meeks was called personal rather than intentional, and Creighton missed both foul shots with 7 seconds left, allowing Kentucky a tying basket (and the foul) .  Let's try again, as today we've got Utah and Portland as a pair of small underdogs playing tough opponents, and all are in somewhat of a must-win situation. But the problem is that Utah has dropped 16 consecutive road games against teams that (now) have a winning record.  You probably wouldn't think Portland would be a similar suspect, but a closer look reveals the Blazers are 1-14 on the road against their last 15 road opponents with a winning record too!  Utah has been losing those games by an average of 12 points. And Portland?  Well they aren't much better, as they've lost those 14 games by an average of 10.3 points.  Portland is on a little streak and they've won the last 3 games by 20+ points, but they played Memphis, OKC and a road sick Utah team and were (+54) in rebounding margin for those 3 games, a stat which is sure to take a turn with Yao at center.  As for New Orleans, they (along with Portland) are fighting for playoff position but if home court is important to any of those cities, you have to think New Orleans needs that economic boost the most in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina.   Streaks always come to an end eventually.. but will both of these unproven road teams suddenly win together in the same day?  Additionally, Utah's 14-23 road record against the Hornet's 27-11 home record is not at all conducive to the (-2.5) spread. 

Jazz 0-16 on road @ >.500 teams

Portland 1-14 on road @ >.500 teams

Will both win on the same night?

 

"The only time I lost was in Reno; that's when everybody on the team lost," he said. "

 

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haha priceless

"Only if that "Pro" capper knows which games will be fixed."

 

 

A +

i also like the Bobcats and Memphis. There's a nice aspect of symmetry I like about the Memphis game, and that is how the Mavs are playing the 2nd of 2 road games where they are about a 7 point road favorite.  They just covered the spread up at Minnesota, but the chances of covering consecutive road games as a 7 point favorite diminish with the first cover, in my opinion.  Compounding the problem is the fact that Dallas, prior to that win in Minnesota, had failed to win their last 12 road games by double digits and are still under .500 on the road.  So will they go 2 in a row all of a sudden?  They have control for the 8th playoff spot with a decent lead over Phoenix, but might get caught looking ahead to their next game, a very pivotal game which happens to be against Phoenix.  I know that's on Marc Cuban's mind, and it might be on the player's minds.  Dallas should still hold on though and get that 8th seed, and look for them to likely take the Lakers to 7 games in a separate situation I will touch on in 2 weeks.   Until then, I like those Friday night home teams at the end of the year to make a last ditch statement and send the fans home with temporary happy vibes (like the Wizards last night) despite a bad season.

if you can find that exact write up anywhere other than my content, i will paypal you $1000

take Boston minus the points

Hawks 1-15 last 16 games on the road against >.500 teams.

Yesterday I posted some late NBA selections including the Nuggets at home due to the Utah Jazz's very bad road performance and the fact that the Jazz were 1-15 on the road against >.500 teams.  Move over Utah, you've got competition.  The Atlanta Hawks are exactly that.  Since opening the season with impressive wins at Orlando and New Orleans, the Hawks have dropped 15 of the last 16 road games against teams that are now above .500.  Their 15 losses have come by an average of almost 10 points and the one team they defeated was Miami.  Boston probably won't catch Cleveland for home court but they can surpass the Lakers should they beat Cleveland so that will give them some motivation.  And we all know how much the NBA would like to see another rematch of the Lakers-Celtics, especially with trade rumors circling around LeBron.  Garnett is out but Glen Davis has filled in nicely since returning from injury.  The Hawks haven't been able to beat Boston at all in Beantown and they look to already have the 4 seed wrapped up.

Good spot for the Wiz as a double digit home underdog against the NBA's best. And with the NBA's best comes the opposing team's best effort. The spread is a little higher than the first time they played Cleveland at home (a game they won) but with the new lottery system they have no reason to desire a last place finish in the NBA. Besides, what better way to temporarily salvage a horror show of a season than to beat the NBA's best. The Cavs will certainly bring it b/c they do not yet have home court wrapped up, and that will be key. But the numbers still favor the big dog tonight when you look at Cleveland's road performance since Xmas they've played 23 road games and they've won just 2 of those 23 by more than 11 points, and 3 of the 23 by 10 points (even at the Clips and Kings) which is tonight's spread. Anyone that's played basketball and been in last place will tell you that if you can beat a good team at the end of the season (especially at home), well, it just feels good and takes some of the pain away. Given that the Wizards are surely completely embarrassed at their 17 win season effort, a nice performance and attempt at a win tonight will make them feel better.....for a little bit anyway. Besides, double digit home dogs in the NBA, from what I can remember, are never a long term losing prop. 

 

Take Washington plus the points

A win tonight will pretty much lock down the division for the Nuggets, who now have a chance to get out of the first round of the playoffs now that Iverson is out. Not much else to say here other than one very key stat: Utah is 1-15 on the road against >.500 teams. They team they beat was Philadelphia wayyyyy back in November. They actually lost those 15 games by an average of 12 points. As a rather small dog, I wouldn't be too trusting of them at 6,000 feet of elevation where they lost by 20 back in January. Now I wouldn't get too greedy, if the Wiz are wizzing to a cover in the early game, I'd probably be inclined to lay off or reduce units on the Nuggs. 

 

Take Denver minus the points

Washington vs. Cleveland

Cav's last 23 road games:  3 wins by double digits                         

Utah 1-15 road against winning teams

Washington vs. Cleveland

 

agreed.