Tinklebell

Tinklebell
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replied to Teams that need to show me something....... 2016
in College Football
Many thanks for your great post..

I would add Florida in the SEC as having a big question mark.

Florida was great when Grier was QB but then lost their offense when he was suspended. They were very lucky to win 10 games in the regular season, and finished out the last games of the season (and their bowl game) looking really bad.

This finish causes many to think Florida will not win more than 7 games this season.

Will they come up with offense, given a new incoming QB, to match their good defense?
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BWS77 52
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replied to JimmyDaFreak
in College Football
Quote Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:

Betting one team first half, and the other team in the 2nd half is a strategy I use frequently.




Love that strategy -  regression to the mean makes statistical sense as the team that does poorly in the first half is likely to improve in the second half, and the team that does well in the first half is likely to do less so in the second half.

However I use it for a second half bet after the first half has been played, looking for some reversal of fortune in the second half relative to the first half.


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Megatron1911 630
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replied to $ - 2016
in College Football
Quote Originally Posted by VEGASJASON:

Intel im a huge Texas fan, I will be all over ND-5, have some bets in at -4 and -4.5 already. Curious why the money line instead of ATS though?


Because ND might win by field goal (or less).
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IntelPatience 35
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replied to FSU vs OLE MISS updated
in College Football
Might make Miss.play harder if their coach is suspended
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hillardoh1 6
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replied to UPDATED TOP 50 POINT SPREAD RATINGS/ PREDICTIONS/FUTURES
in College Football
Great material !
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DoubleUp4Life 83
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replied to Armstrong = Turnover Machine
in College Football
Quote Originally Posted by combato:

White coach dumber than a brick?

You must be black.


That is racist statement if made by a non-black but not racist, and politically correct, if the statement was made by black.

So if combato is black we should not comment on his statement in any negative way. Blacks get a pass.

Blacks who try to kill a white cop in resisting arrest, but then get killed by a white cop in self-defense, are considered to have been executed on the street by that cop.

I am not sure we should ever arrest a black for anything - always give then a pass. Look at what we would save in not having riots.
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combato 6
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replied to FB first week
in College Football
Quote Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:

Tinkle - I think any bet against OU in week 1, even a teaser up to 18...if foolish.  there is a lot of hype on Houston right now, with Herman and Ward yada, yada, yada.  This is week 1, and exactly the type of gmae that OU will get up for.  Houston is a big recruiting base for OU, and if you look at the pure talent delta rankings over the last 4 years, its not close, with a big OU advantage.   Oklahoma is a legit playoff contender, Houston may win the rest of their games, but they will be exposed again a really good OU team.  I will be on OU at -10.   GL with the rest of your picks.


Good chance we both win.

Would you give me Houston + 18 against Oklahoma ?
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Tinklebell 3
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created a topic FB first week
in College Football
6/24/16 11:20am    $500.00  to win  $316.46

2 Team Teaser (ties win) Teaser tw 8fb

9/3/16 12:00pm  Houston U +18 * vs Oklahoma

9/5/16 8:00pm Mississippi +14 * vs Florida State 


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Tinklebell 3
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replied to Why I Always Pick Florida To Beat Tennessee, And Why It Will Happen Yet Again
in College Football
Quote Originally Posted by RockstarGator:

Doesn't matter how good or bad either team is. Gators always find a way. They escaped Rocky Top 2 years ago under Muschamp.

People will say "It's just because Butch calls conservative plays like Champ did at Florida with the lead". Nah. With FLA's offensive depth this year, it will be far more interesting.

More importantly, Kentucky thought the exact same thing that Tennessee said they'd do, which was beat us. We beat them with early offense and shutdown defense, then guess what happened next week? This year, Florida blows out Kentucky at home, and then takes care of Tennessee.




All good, and bad, things eventually come to an end.


I might consider taking Florida and points ( + 7 1/2 ) against Tennessee
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RockstarGator 11
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replied to College Football Week 1
in College Football
USCe has less quality in their players and a new coach

I think Vandy wins by 3 so it is a no play for me
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Gunner10 5
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replied to Why Florida Will Go 10-2 In 2016
in College Football
Quote Originally Posted by ELDubarino:

I believe we see Florida digress a bit this year.  When i saw Jim McElwain be interviewed after the loss to Michigan i said to my self that this guy is a really nice guy.  Respectful, courteous and an overall positive person.  The problem is that these charactetistics dont usually translate to long term success at the top programs in college football.

You half to have an edge to your personality which will win you the tight recruiting battles as well be able to work the officials.  Guys like Saban, Miles, and Meyer have this.

Look at when Michigan hired Brady Hoke.  First year they went 11-2 and won the Sugar bowl.  They overachieved that season and followed it up with an 8-5, 7-6, and 5-7 before they let him go.  Brady Hoke was a nice guy, positive person which will cut it in the Mountain West where he came from but not in the Big Ten.  He was nothing close to Bo or Lloyd Carr when it came to recruiting or working the officials.

The McElwain hire reminds me a lot of the scenario i mentioned above. Just like Hoke I think hes too soft and i don't mean any disrespect by that.  Florida needs a long term coach which best resembles the Spurrier or Meyer era.

I think coaching will be the biggest downfall of the Gators this season which is why i would lean to an 8-4 season.

As a bit of a background i am a big Michigan fan and am finally happy that we got Jim Harbough as our coach.  I had to go through some lean years with Rich Rod and then Hoke.

Overall just my thoughts....of course i hope you win your bets.  Looking forward to when we play you guys to start the 2017 season.





Good points.

Florida was extremely lucky to go 10-2 in the regular season last year. They should have done no better than 8-4 last year.

I am betting on improvement in their offense this year, with no let down on defense..

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RockstarGator 44
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replied to Why Florida Will Go 10-2 In 2016
in College Football
They wouldn't let me bet this second bet until they changed the odds against me:


382371683-1

6/15/16 8:56am$499.80$476.00Pending9/1/16 12:00pm  College Props Football  30293 Florida total wins over 8 -105* vs Florida total wins under 8 


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RockstarGator 44
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replied to Why Florida Will Go 10-2 In 2016
in College Football
Quote Originally Posted by TD21:


FYI

Seeing this offered at 5dimes.

TD



Thanks.They only let me bet $500 but will bet the same bet again
 later.


382363771-1

6/15/16 2:20am$500.00$575.00Pending9/1/16 12:00pm  College Props Football  30293 Florida total wins over 8 +115* vs Florida total wins under 8 

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RockstarGator 44
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replied to Why Florida Will Go 10-2 In 2016
in College Football
Quote Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life:

Below is my current W/L %

FLORIDA GATORS


U MASS    99.9%
UK    84%
at NORTH TEXAS    91.5%
AT tTENNESSEE    34.5%
AT VANDERBILT  82%
LSU    43.5 %
MISSOURI     67%
* GEORGIA   49%
AT ARKANSAS  40%
SC    83%
pRESB   100%
AT FLORIDA ST  25.5%


8-4   SOUNDS ABOUT RIGHT IN MY OPINION 


Just looked up the win total for the regular season ... ODDS MAKERS LOOK SHARP AT OVER 8 +115 ....  


If you really think the GATORS will be very good , my advice would be to bet them to win the SEC 20-1 and SEC East ( not released yet) 






I would love to take Florida over 8 in RSW at +115

What book offers this?

PM me.
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RockstarGator 44
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replied to Why Florida Will Go 10-2 In 2016
in College Football
Quote Originally Posted by TD21:


Tinklebell, caught me off guard on that one.  Going to respectfully decline.  Being the bank for two others wagering / financial affairs isn't something I'm wanting to get into.  Hope you understand.  Good luck on this.  

Take care, 

TD



Respect your posts. Understand your view.


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RockstarGator 44
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replied to Why Florida Will Go 10-2 In 2016
in College Football
Quote Originally Posted by Shua12collegeFB:




Can you send me a PM, or an email with screenshots.


I'm not saying I don't believe you, I just don't know if you're telling the truth. 


Five dimes says right on the terms and conditions that all 12 games must be played to have action. All 12 games for an over and all 12 games for an under


Florida was a 37 point favorite against Idaho and if the game had not been first postponed and a few days later cancelled, then Florida would have surely won and then would have won 8 games for the season, making my over 7 1/2 a winner. Instead 5 dimes graded it as a loss and stole my my money but cancelled the bet for under bettors so they wouldn't have to pay anything out and collected on over bettors.

How can a book only grade a bet as a loser for one side and a void for the other side, thus only collecting without any payout? 5 dimes did it.

252068497-1

7/10/14 2:13pm$250.00$217.39$0.00Loss8/30/14 7:00pm  Props Football  30285 Florida total wins over 7½ -115* vs Florida total wins under 7½ 

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RockstarGator 44
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replied to Why Florida Will Go 10-2 In 2016
in College Football
Quote Originally Posted by Shua12collegeFB:


 What book. I would expose them. Las Vegas casinos and all off shore casinos I've ever heard of all operate under the same rules for regular-season wins. If a game is canceled, the bed is void. It does not matter if they game  would've or would have not made a difference. If someone's regular-season over under is 4 and they go on 1-10 but have a cancellation. The bet is voided as a no bet. 

I'd love to know the game and the name of the book, because five dimes, pet online, sports book.AG, the Greek, heritage, pinnacle, every reputable book would cancel that wager and voided out


5 dimes

college regular season team O/U bet was made on the over in 2914 season

I describe the problem on this forum in reply to a post of someone who also got screwed by 5 dimes
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RockstarGator 44
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replied to Why Florida Will Go 10-2 In 2016
in College Football
Quote Originally Posted by Shua12collegeFB:



That's tough luck but that's how it works in Vegas. Any cancellation voids all RSW bets. 


Depends on the book.

I lost a RSW bet once on a cancellation. I had the over and the cancelled game would have won for me if it had played since the team I bet on was a 38 point favorite and would have won for sure (never heard of 38 point favorite losing the game) giving me the over win. The book took my money saying my over didn't win (because the game was not played).
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RockstarGator 44
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replied to Why Florida Will Go 10-2 In 2016
in College Football
Quote Originally Posted by Shua12collegeFB:

Florida last 6 games of LY


Vandy W 9-7 (-20)
S. Carolina W 24-14 (-8)
FAU W 20-14 (-29)
Fla State L 2-27 (+2)
Bama L 14-29 (+17)
BOWL: Michigan L 7-41 (+5)

2-4 down the stretch (down 29-7 late va bama, miracle cover)

This is who we will see from UF this year, crappy offense that constantly struggles vs inferior competition. 

Losses: FSU, LSU, Tennessee
Possible losses: Arkansas, Georgia, vandy

Horrific OOC scheduling (no. Texas, UMass, Presbyterian.) possibly the absolute worst OOC Florida has ever had. The blue nose are the worst team in the Big south and a bottom 40 D-1aa team/ UNT was UNT and UMass will be MASSacred this year and an independent (4-8 tops, probably 3-9)

Florida knows they aren't going to be that good, and clearly scheduled light. If they lose @ tenn, @ vandy and at home vs LSU the wheels could fall off. 

Under 8.5 RSW no question. 

Where's the info that I can send the money to? 


We need someone we can trust who will hold the $2000 and pay to the winner at the end of the season. I volunteer if you want to send me $1000.
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RockstarGator 44
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replied to Why Florida Will Go 10-2 In 2016
in College Football
Quote Originally Posted by Shua12collegeFB:



This is funny. 



Why?

I just want to cover all possibilities.

If a tie is not possible then a tie after the third overtime would result in a forth overtime, and if each subsequent overtime ended in a tie, the game could theoretically never end?

Just in case a tie is possible, a tie game counts as 1/2 win and I/2 loss. So if Florida wins 8 and ties one the bet is a tie.

Your idea of fairness is that you have the advantage.

I gave you the advantage you asked for in case of a game cancellation - which is that if Florida were to win 11 games and not lose any game, but one game was cancelled, then our bet would be voided, even thought my side won (Florida won 9 or more games).


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RockstarGator 44
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