tonychiza

IMO the best way to bet game 1 of the nba finals is to live bet throughout the game with a lean towards the warriors. 

Both of these teams are super streaky. You've seen it multiple times through the playoffs, where one team will go down a lot and vice versa. 

I don't know who will win Game 1, but I feel confident that at some point in the game the warriors will be down by 10+ points and you can get a pretty good warriors line at like +4 or +5. I do think that regardless of who wins this game the outcome will likely be close, and if the dubs go down big vs the raptors, i feel better about their ability to climb out of the hole then the raptors. 

Considering how large the swings are in Warriors game, and sometimes the Raptors as we saw many times against the Bucks, you might even be able to build in a little bit of arbitrage. You could be in a situation where all you are risking is the juice if there are large swings in the game, but you could double up if the end falls within the arbitrage parameters. 

For instance, if you can get dubs at +4 or 5 and then the dubs go on a run and then you get Toronto at +2 or 3in the 3rd quarter when the dubs play the best ball of anyone in any quarter, then you have both sides and if the game falls in between dubs +4 and toronto +2 then you can win both bets. If it falls out of there you lose the juice on both bets. Essentially you are risking 10% of each of your bets for a chance to win 90%. 

Macwesties, even though I ended up pushing on the Rams, I still came up $12k last weekend almost completely based on your picks. I didn't like your Saints pick which ended up covering and went with the Rams instead which ended up pushing. I think I had one of my games in there that I picked as well. 

Anyways, just wanted to say thanks man, and good luck with this week, hope you keep it rolling! 

Macwesties...thank you thank you thank you thank you. 

Believe it or not I did a 7 team round robin with 6 of your picks and a 7 team parlay. I stand to win about $12k if the Rams cover tonight. 

Again, thank you thank you thank you. Question for you now is given my position would you hedge this bet? If so, by how much? 

Thanks

Okc -3.5

Blazers -2.5

Cle -6

Round Robin and Parlay

OKC, Blazers and CLE ML Robin Robin and Parlay. 

Here's to hoping! 

I've been waiting for Bovada to have -4.5 for the Pats. 

Going LARGE on buying the half point to -4 (-120) for the Pats. 

PATS Money Line at -175 

Also, took Pats +105 -3 halftime line

Prop Bets:

Pats Over 13.5 half time. 

Pats over 27 for the game. 

Pats/Pats - They need to be up at the half and for the game.

Brady Over 285.5 Yards

Brady Over 2 Touchdowns

 Brady -.5 more touchdowns than Foles

Brady -25.5 more passing yards than Foles

Brady under 2.5 rushing yards

Foles under 1.5 rushing yards

My cliff notes reasoning: 

Gronk is going to be available for the super bowl. 

Brandon Cooks is a huge upgrade to the receiving corps compared to last year's SB. 

Danny Amendola is the perfect Edelman replacement, especially in big games where he excels. He's always been an amazing receiver, he could just never stay on the field. His catch rate increases significantly in big games and he already has a couple super bowl touchdowns. 

Blount mouthing off. Anytime a player on the team does this I always take this as a bad sign. 

Please note, I would be betting on the Eagles with a healthy Caron Wentz, but even with the Eagles having a better defense I just don't see Foles being able to keep up with the Patriots in this one. Looking at the prop bets Vegas already expects the Eagles to turn the ball over more frequently even with a better Eagles defense. I think a lot of it will come down to stopping Ajayi. If the Pats can stop Ajayi from having one of his special games he's been known to have with the Dolphins, then I think Wentz will have difficulty moving the ball. The Super Bowl is a different beast, and I definitely think experience is going to play a major factor here.

Better offense than last year, more experience, better running game, healthier team is all an advantage to the PATS. The fact that they almost lost to the Jags does not deter me. Pats tend to not make the same mistake twice, and they overlooked the Jags in a way. I actually think the fact that they almost lost to the Jags is going to help them focus for the Super Bowl. 

TL:DR - My prediction is Pats win this game by double digits. 

Good luck everybody! 

OKC - 5

Knicks, bought half point to +6 

Heat -9 

Bet each game individually, did a 3-team parlay and a 3-team round robin. 

Good luck all!