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replied to 2014 NFL Season Long Thread in NFL Betting As a lot of you likely have as well. I've listened to Behind the Bets this season. Bob Schucci from the Orleans (Boyd gaming) has consistently said that +/- 5 is a dead number; the favored team will win, but they just can't lock in by how much. I'll play the O/U or stay away completely. View Post \| View Thread	collegegambler	835	January 11, 2015 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic SNF in NFL Betting I like the over tonight. Weather is crisp, but clear. Bears off a bye and have slapped a bandaid on their chemistry issues for this week. Cutler will sling it around to Marshal and Jeffrey and Forte; they will score on Green Bay. I still think Rogers and his weapons do enough to win the game, but I'm 50/50 on them covering. My play is OVER 53. Good luck all... View Post \| View Thread	TXTENOR	2	November 09, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Week 10 in NFL Betting Followed you today except for Cowboys (game closed early at my book). Great job on the sides and I CANNOT BELIEVE the Rams blew apart like that in the 4th. Your teaser had at least a solid hedge opportunity headed into tonight and the Cardinals just kept scoring...unreal. I was literally thinking "I've never hit a 7 teamer before...this is awesome!!" Right about that time, the Rams sh$t the bed. Oh well... Nice job AMD. View Post \| View Thread	amd	70	November 09, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to * Freak Pics * (Week 6) in College Football Jimmy, I'm still up on the day tailing your picks. Tough Bama loss, but a winning day is a winning day. How can anyone b i tch about that? I appreciate the hard work. View Post \| View Thread	jimmydafreak	410	October 04, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to * Week 5 NCAA Football * in College Football Quote Originally Posted by jwheels86: Quote Originally Posted by Boom_Boom: Classy post there slick.... We hope they die peacefully. First rule of digging yourself out of a hole......stop digging. BB, love the Arkansas pick. View Post \| View Thread	Boom_Boom	80	September 21, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to NFL WEEK 3 * Ray Rice Classic Elevator "Hits" Volume 1 * in NFL Betting [Quote: Originally Posted by TRAIN69] 10 isnt hard to do.....its VERY F'N HARD !!! However, here we go.... Ravens ML Dallas ML Detoit ML & O52 Saints -9 SD O45 Tenn +7 Zona +3 Denevr U48.5 Bears ML If you didnt like one of those, an alternant would be Carolina -3 or Wash +6 [/Quote] My local only allows up to 8 legs, but is used this list to pull from in a $10 parlay for a G...if it hits, I'll donate $100 to the Train fund View Post \| View Thread	TRAIN69	83	September 21, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Week 3= The Perfect Time to Flat Bet with Caution-DUp4Life in College Football DU...do you still like the OU/ TENN over at 56? Does that cross any key numbers while still being inside the TD you mentioned you thought it would start at? I like it too, but feel like it's too easy; I smell a rat... View Post \| View Thread	DoubleUp4Life	75	September 10, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Leave Ray Rice alone..his wife forgave him and he has no past in Penalty Box You guys are missing the bigger picture. This isn't a moral stand by the Ravens or the NFL for that matter. This is a PR move, plain and simple. My opinion or yours from a personal standpoint won't make a bit of difference between a man and his wife. If she forgives him, good for her and God bless. I don't have to live with him, and neither do any of you.. As a representative of the Ravens and by proxy the NFL, then whether she forgives him or not means nothing. The public outcry against the video is monumental, and you'd be hard pressed to find anyone in the media or in the NFL front offices across the league to voice any opinion other than one decrying the incident as vicious and barbaric, The NFL and the networks that broadcast it cannot be associated so openly with a "wife beater" AT THIS POINT, Ray Rice is a damn good football player. America is the land of second chances. After he's been out for a season, and shows contrition at the proper scale (Oprah, The View, etc), he WILL get another chance to play in the NFL. Just not this year and never with the Ravens again. View Post \| View Thread	yosemitesam	58	September 08, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to phixers nfl in Website Promotions Hang in there Phix...as you well know, this world is cyclical. Hope you get back on the right side quickly and consistently. View Post \| View Thread	phixer	51	September 08, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Oregon vs Sparty - Predictalator picks in College Football Not my analysis...as I mentioned, I'm just a subscriber to their site. Thanks for the input, though. View Post \| View Thread	TXTENOR	3	September 06, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic Oregon vs Sparty - Predictalator picks in College Football No tout or endorsement here...anyone with an email address can get this info. That being said, I'm interested in what the board thinks of this analysis. Here goes: Though Wisconsin did not ultimately win against LSU last week in Houston (despite a 24-7 second half lead), the free pick analysis got off to a great start in Week 1 as the Badgers (+5) and OVER (50) both covered in LSU's 28-24 victory. Similarly high profile teams square off this week, with a couple very notable differences. As a game between two top ten teams in just about any poll, Michigan State heading to Oregon is a high profile national game. Those looking for drama, however, should look elsewhere as there are 24 FBS vs. FBS games projected to be closer this Saturday alone. Unlike some of the top matchups that highlighted Week 1, this game takes place in Oregon on the Ducks home field, which is an above average home field advantage and means a net seven point difference (in Oregon's favor) from playing this game in East Lansing. That's not the only reason why the Ducks win, let alone cover, however, as Oregon should make enough plays defensively against a relatively uninspiring Spartans' offense to win going away. Oregon currently ranks second overall in our updated Week 2 College Football Power Rankings. The Ducks rank second in offense and 21st in defense. From an efficiency standpoint, Oregon ranks in the top six in the nation in run and pass offense and run and pass defense. Florida State is the only other team in the country that can say that. In addition to getting this game at home, the Ducks are balanced and deep. And while deep and rich with talent at just about every position, starting quarterback Marcus Mariota himself is worth about 16 points to his team against an average opponent. As good as Oregon is, we are essentially saying that this would be a 50/50 game without Mariota. Oregon returns 13 starters (plus punter/kicker Matt Wogan) from a team that went 11-2 straight-up and 7-5 against-the-spread while facing the nation's 29th ranked strength of schedule in 2013. Seven of those returning starters come on the offensive side of the ball, notably Mariota and starting running back Byron Marshall. Oregon finished third in the country last season, scoring 45.5 points a game. The Ducks also only allowed 20.5 points a contest, which was good for 13th overall (despite taking on a top 30 schedule). Few teams are as dominant as Oregon when the Ducks are at their best. The team averaged three more yards per play than its opponents last season (7.6 to 4.6), while also running an average of 75 plays a game. The high tempo forces opposing defenses to stay in base packages and rarely substitute. It also puts incredible pressure on opponents' offenses to make the most of each possession and, with leads often built early, throw the ball down field more than may generally be the case. Pro style, methodical, physical, defensive-oriented teams like Michigan State (and its Pac-12 comparable Stanford) do tend to do better than expected against Oregon, but usually not with just a week to prepare and when not having faced Oregon or similar teams often in the past. Thought to be a top ten team in the eyes of many (if not most), Michigan State comes in 11th in the Predictalator's Power Rankings. Even with just five returning starters on that side of the ball, Mark Dantonio's Spartans have the best defense in the country, ranking second against the pass and first against the run. However, MSU only ranks 54th overall in offense - 34th in passing efficiency and 57th in running the ball. Junior quarterback Connor Cook excelled as a sophomore starter at not turning the ball over (six interceptions on 380 attempts), but he also only completed 58.7% of his passes for 7.2 yards-per-pass (by comparison, Mariota completed 62.5% of his passes for 9.5 yards-per-pass on almost exactly the same number of attempts). Furthermore, while senior running back Jeremy Langford also returns from a relative breakout season, his 4.9 yards-per-carry ranked just 47th of the 52 runners with more than 1,000 yards in 2013 (for comparison purposes, Byron Marshall ran for 6.2 yards-per-carry and also topped 1,000 yards). Michigan State went 13-1 straight-up (8-4 against-the-spread) in 2013, yet faced just the 51st ranked FBS schedule (that includes both the Big Ten Championship game and Rose Bowl - MSU's 2013 regular season schedule was outside of the top 95 in the nation). The Spartans out-scored those opponents by an average score of 29.4 to 13.2. Whereas Oregon out-gained opponents by almost three full yards, Michigan State out-gained its opponents by just over one yard-per-play (5.4 to 4.0). A very strong defensive team, the UNDER covered in two-thirds of the Spartans' games last season as well. We are expecting this to be a lower scoring game than the line would suggest and a much lower scoring game than Oregon is used to. Lower scoring games tend to favor the underdog, but that's not the case this week. Michigan State lacks the efficiency and explosive play ability on offense to hang with the Ducks. It may be close (and likely very low scoring) for a half or so as Oregon works to figure out the Spartans' defense, but, as soon as the Ducks are able to build a sizable lead, the Spartans lack what is necessary to respond and remain competitive. According to 50,000 games played by the Predictalator, Oregon wins on average 69% of the time and by an average score of 34-17. As 12 point favorites doubling up the Spartans to win by 17, Oregon covers the spread 56.8% of the time, which would warrant a $46 wager from a normal $50 player. The UNDER (58) is actually a slightly stronger play, covering 56.9%, enough to justify a $47 play from a normal $50 player. There are exactly ten stronger totals and ten stronger against-the-spread picks on Saturday. View Post \| View Thread	TXTENOR	3	September 06, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Superbowl Sunday in NFL Betting I can almost guaranty that Rene will NOT wear gloves. If I had that prop available, I would hammer it. She's a tough NY gal; cold won't bother her and it's not her style. View Post \| View Thread	amd	159	February 02, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Superbowl Sunday in NFL Betting I can almost guaranty that Rene will NOT wear gloves. If I had that prop available, I would hammer it. She's a tough NY gal; cold won't bother her and it's not her style. View Post \| View Thread	amd	159	February 02, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to 2 parlays...need some advice in College Football Guess that would help. Both are $25 bets paying $598 View Post \| View Thread	TXTENOR	3	January 03, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic 2 parlays...need some advice in College Football Ok, have two parlays open...it's early, but I'm looking for the best way to max out my payout if I make it to the last leg still alive. Here's what I have: Parlay 1 OU +17 OU / BAMA OVER 51.5 OK STATE / MIZZU OVER 61 OHIO STATE -3 FSU / AUBURN OVER 67.5 Parlay 2 OU +17 OU / BAMA OVER 51.5 OK STATE / MIZZU OVER 61 OHIO STATE -3 FSU / AUBURN UNDER 67.5 So, we have a long way to go, I know. If I get to Monday night still alive, 1 bet wins, 1 loses. Trying to think of the best way to maximize hedging one of the losing bets. Thoughts? View Post \| View Thread	TXTENOR	3	January 03, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Stanford -4 1st half in College Football Asked and answered: pick 6 View Post \| View Thread	slickrick864	38	January 01, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Bowl Games: 1H & 2H Bets Only in College Football Great hit on SC / WISCONSIN over. You read it perfectly. Kick return was a nice bonus :-) View Post \| View Thread	Ducks_Homer	102	January 01, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to This is the definition of intoxication..... in College Football Not sure if that's "the" definition of intoxication, but it does sound like you were hammered. Good for you that you had enough sense to ride JF's coat tails to some serious cash. That comeback was unreal! View Post \| View Thread	Ducks_Homer	20	January 01, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to phixer's nfl in NFL Betting EVD17...I see what you mean. I'll stay the course and reload Det -3 2H. Lots of dropped balls in the 1st half by CJ, etc. View Post \| View Thread	phixer	2804	December 16, 2013 View Post \| View Thread
replied to phixer's nfl in NFL Betting With points coming at such an obvious premium in this game, should I take the Ravens in the 2H to offset Detroit -4.5? We already won the 1st half under, and I'm not sure Detroit comes back. Thoughts? View Post \| View Thread	phixer	2804	December 16, 2013 View Post \| View Thread

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