vanzack

I would be in on this for sure.

Wish I did.

I disagree with both of your statements.

For the animals. Snoopy was adopted from a shelter.

Sorry you lost this. They made it close.

Thanks. Very kind.

Good luck DanTan.

I will be rooting for you!

No clue what that means.

Your bet is currently worth about $23,533.  That is assuming a midpoint win odds of +360 on ND and +116 on the Bills.

I will buy your bet for 18K right now.

There is no way to truly hedge other than selling your bet as of now.  If ND wins, then you can hedge by betting the Chiefs.

Let me know if you want to do business.

+6 -120 eveywhere.

+6 -110 on exchanges.

The simple answer is that you know earlier in the game how to strategize the rest of the game.

If a 2 point conversion is likely - and in the case of the Ravens deciding whether to kick the EP or go for 2 when they were down by 2 with 3:44 left in the 3rd quarter - it was extremely likely that a 2 point conversion was in their future - it is ALWAYS better to do it early rather than late when you have no time to recover.

"Momentum" is a human construct in sports.  There is no true momentum lost by going for 2 with 3 minutes left in the third qtr.

Game theory is way more important.  It is not "analytics".  It is game theory.  And game theory says the longer you have to react and plan to an adverse event the more chance you have of overcoming it.

Simple.

We all (me too) sit here and try to handicap yards, because yards are a predictor of points.  But the hardest thing to model is turnovers, and it is the single biggest predictor (more than yards) of winners and losers in NFL betting.

This is why going 55% is such an accomplishment in NFL, and why everyone experiences great variances over the years.

Thanks all.

Every NFL loser outgained the winners this weekend.

Turnovers told the story.

He had like 4 drops and a fumble

Never in doubt.

Again.

McVey goes to Vegas and doubles on a 12 and gets a 9, and looks at you and wonders why you are telling him it is the wrong thing to do.

His luck factor is off the charts.

McVey....  As usual....  Made every mistake he could down the stretch.

The main one was not kicking onsides after their first TD.  They kicked long, and got the ball at their own 20 after a three and out.   If you onsides kick it - you have a chance of getting the onsides kick (not to mention this weather), and if you dont get it - a 3 and out on defense gets you the ball in almost exactly the same position as kicking deep.

Saquon should have also been coached up to not score on the long TD, but I will forgive them for this as it is a close call IMO and hard to execute.  But in a perfect world, he goes down at about the 15 yard line.

Crazy game.  My heart sunk when he missed the EP after the Saquon TD - because I know McVey isnt going for two if he made it to go up by 14.

@mrusso

Wow. I don't know what to say.

You have always been one of my favorites here, now even more.

Thanks for being open and vulnerable in this cesspool of a forum. I wish you peace.

Thanks everyone. Good start.

I'm just a humble guy trying to hit 68% to break even.

GL ESB