vanzack

Someone on Twitter asked me about if recent results are attributable to variance or something wrong with what I am doing.  This is my answer - it has a lot to do with what people post in my threads here also....

Things change in the NFL. Year to year, week to week. The one change I am most vulnerable to is favorites covering without statistics to back it up. That is happening a lot this year, and even with adjustments - I cant overdo it. This is the most outlier season in the last 10 with regards to that specific situation.

So either the NFL has fundamentally changed and the predictors of the last several years are somewhat worthless, or we have had 9 weeks of outlier data and or results. Impossible to tell. Only time will tell.

When statistical predictors become less reliable, the market is more random by definition. I do not like risking money on randomness. So my eyes are open. Fortunately, the amount I am down so far is overcomable and not extreme - but I look more at what is causing it that is giving me stomach pains.

My backtesting is showing no way for me to win in some weeks. That has never really happened. This is due to randomness. If I want to bet randomness, I will just go to a casino. If you cant have predictors, you cant have success year on year. My set of predictors have proven to be close to worthless this season.

Will that continue? That is the only answer to your question.

Its not so much that favs are winning (they are). That would be bad, but not terminal. What is terminal is that favs win without the backup of the predictors also. That is terminal.

No bet tonight Chiefs / Bucs

GL all

In a sea of boneheaded coaching decisions....

One was my favorite today.  A fireable offense IMO.  Brian Daboll and the Giants....

Giants down by 5, Commanders have the ball, Giants have 3 TO's.  On first down at their own 30, the commanders are tackled in bounds with 2:43 on the clock.  

The Giants decide to not call a TO, and let the clock bleed.  The problem is that there will be 2:03 when the Commanders have to snap 2nd down - which means they can throw the ball with no risk because the 2 minute warning will happen either way.

Kliff Kingsbury realizes this - Daboll stands there like the bridge troll that he is.  Commanders snap at 2:04, throw 30 yards downfield to a wide open guy - game over.

If you find yourself on defense needing the ball back, you cannot allow the other team to snap the ball between 2:05 and 2:01 ever.  Golden rule.  Because then you need to defend the pass and run.

Carry on.

This season will take years off of my life.

I still hold to the process.  I try to make smart changes, but I haven't gotten traction the whole season.  

Not going anywhere.  Still time to have a successful season.

No play tonight.

OK, boy wonder.

You used to all the attention?
Why not?  You should be coming home with me
Sitting in this lap with the luxury
Now you been, coming in while you waking up
Acting like you behave and stuff
You should be coming home wiht me
Sitting in this lap with the luxury
Now check it.

If you aren't on 4casters....

Cavemen looking up at the stars.

I am trading faster than Jordan Belfort after an 8ball.

Your momma was unlucky the day you were born.

102?

Now lets do the last 7 years....

I will go first.  Average +65 units per season.  Not one losing season.

You?

The "pick your spots" position is so dumb.  So I am going to limit myself to a certain number of plays per week?  Some arbitrary quantity in an arbitrary time period?  What if this weeks 4th best pick that doesnt make the list is next weeks best pick?  I win with edges and volume.  When you have an edge, the more  volume the better.  Thats simply how it works.

Keep doing your thing.  It is kind of funny how 100 of your 150 lifetime posts are in my threads.  Countdown to 101....

@C-70Blues

Degens is a term of endearment around here.

You are not included.  You are not a degen.

Buzz off.

Check out 4casters also.

Just incredible liquidity.  Right now, can get Ravens -8 -108 for as much as you want.

Exchanges cant be beat.  Everyone that takes on the vig argument with me is just telling me they dont know what an exchange is without telling me they dont know what an exchange is.

GL

Miami if anyone for me.  But I laid off because of their offense.  It would be a bet on potential rather than what I have seen and I dont like to do that.  Not sure the Dolphins offense can backdoor cover which is a big component of taking 6.5.

GL though.

NFL Season Record -12.0 units
NFL Sunday

* Packers +2.5 (3 units)
* Ravens -9.5 (3 units)
* Titans -3 (2.5 units)
* Chargers -1 (2.5 units)
* Cowboys +3.25 (2 units)
* Bears +1 (2 units)

GL degens

NO BET ON JETS / TEXANS

GL to all

Respect.

Something we can definitely agree on.

73,550

ATH = 73,750

Great question.

I think there is diminishing returns at work here.  I think 10 hours is where I get 75% done, and the other 70 hours are 25%.  But I am an obsessive person, and if I miss a line move because I wasn't paying attention it kills me.

It is only 5 months a year, then for 3 months (soccer Feb - May) it is 10 hours - then summers are free.

So overall - it is better than a 9-5.  And for me, I have come to accept it is all or nothing.  Character flaw.

Ouch