w365

no leans on ohi/tem, wva/aub...

auburn being a small public dog, they are in a rare and ineffective group that is 1-5 ats so far this season and temple is in a 0-12 ats group as a small home fave but i dont like ohio and wva enough to have a lean or a play on them.


new mexico +5.5 @ air force
lean: new mexico after buying it up to 7 (no play)

air force in a 0-12 ats group, same as temple this week (small to average home fave ranked 18-32 places better at home)

much stronger schedule for new mexico so far this season, much better running game both offensively and defensively. air force is not a run oriented team any more and some of their previous games this season make me think that they are overrated.

new mexico getting better week after week and kept it extremely close at air force in three of last 4 trips. covered 4 straight since september 27th while air force can't seem to be able to win and cover lately. either they lose and cover as a dog or they win and dont cover as a fave. they are 3-11 ats in last 14 as small some fave.

5-2 teams at home against .500 teams are 3-10 ats if not favored by 21+

2,3,4 games over .500 teams, playing at home vs conference opp, playing for .500, favored by -2/-7 are 7-33 ats in weeks 7 to 12.

line>-6.5 (dog or favorite of 6 or less) after scoring 69+ points and allowing 7 or less are 10-2 ats, 7-1 ats as dogs and 8-0 ats with regular rest.



boise -7.5 @ san jose state
lean: san jose state

this line for boise would be OK if we had two non ranked teams but for a highely ranked team this is a low line against a non ranked opponent. but whats even more intriguing is the public support for boise which is way over 70%. this confirms my theory that there are no trap lines, just huge differences between public perception on some teams and the real stregth of teams presented by the vegas line. there have been only 4 teams with such a ratings diferential so far this season and 70%+ of public bets on them this season and they went 0-4 ats (0-3 ranked vs non ranked).the total set for this game is closer to what sjsu has as total and that tells me that the linemakers give full credit to sjsu defense.

i've said many times before that san jose state is really flying under the radar so in the wac. not only this season but in last couple of years. they are 21-8 ats in last 29, and 15-2 su and 12-2 ats lately at home (9-0 last 9 at home) with only two home losses against hawaii last year (in overtime, sjsu covered as home dog) and against boise in 2006 (lost by 3 as big home dog but covered the spread).they are healthy, played boise extremely close in last 3 at home.

we know everything about boise and they have only one weakness, and that's the inexperience of their starting qb in road conference games. but other than that they are strong, very strong, playing good defense. however, not sure they are as strong as boise from a couple of years ago.

san jose state has an average offense, but that offensive unit is very opportunistic, taking advantage on almost every opportunity given to them. and their defense also scored 3 TD in last 2 games, helping the struggling offense.

san jose state has one of the best defenses in the nation. they are ranked #11 in run defense, 35 in pass defense, 13 in total defense, 4 in interceptions, 3 i turnovers gained, 7 i passing efficiency defense, 23 in punt return defense, 14 in kickoff return defense, 8 in first down defense, 18 in third down defense, 3 in sacks, 9 in tackles for loss and so on. they are well coached and they are the best wac team in turnover diffential and # 9 in the nation. their red zone defense in TD allowed is just a little bit better than boise's. they are one of the fewest penalized teams in the nation and they force their opponents to comit tons of penalties. they are +226 in yards gained vs yards lost on penalties and boise is at -99 yards. thats a huge differential and shows us how well coached and disciplined this team is.

boise played some of the worst dfeenses in the country and none was even close to sjsu. the defenses they faced are ranked 74 bgr, 79 haw, 81 ore, 94 latech and 103 smiss. they also played 0-7 idaho state allowing 470 yards per game and 41 points per game. san jose state stil played at nebraska, at stanford, at hawaii (long trip and won that game) and @ new mexico state (dominated the most explosive offense in the wac).

unbeaten road favorites of 2-38 pts in the wac are 2-10 ats (boise 2-5 ats, against sjsu 0-4 ats, boise against sjsu 0-2 ats).