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If you perceive there to be value, you should bet it. Wagering is all about value. You ARE supposed to only bet on the best value opportunities.
If you are asking to get help in finding value, that is different.
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Bigdave117 | 8 |
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MIA Cosart -140 ML: Jarred Cosart came to MIA from HOU. He was injured most of 2015. He is above average and young. He is a diamond in the rough kind of pitcher. Cosart has + rated cutter and ATL is ranked 29th in MLB hitting that pitch. ATL is one of the worst teams in MLB and is throwing Chacin today. Chacin had a great start last time out. We’ll expect a regression to the mean so a poor performance from him today. A bit juicy in the line, but a solid chance to win.
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Webbie | 14 |
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NYY @ TOR Under 8.5
Stroman is off a poor start so again he should find success getting to the mean tonight. He has dominated the Yankees over his short career so far. He owns an ERA of 2.43 and an Avg. Against of .157 vs NYY. McCann was injured and is day to day. He sat out last night and NYY lineup does not look very daunting with him not in it! ARod is batting 3rd and cannot catch up to fastballs anymore. He batting .136 and is -1.4 against fastballs which is a Stroman strength. TOR finally got a DD hit game last night. It took an implosion from Ivan Nova to get it. TOR got 5 of their 10 hits in the 8thn inning. I like this game to under as Eovaldi is off a below average start as well. |
Webbie | 1 |
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Yes on PreGame too
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Webbie | 8 |
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Let's get it
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Webbie | 8 |
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Nice. Thanks you too
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Webbie | 8 |
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KC Ventura is worth a shot tonight. 2 of his 3 starts vs HOU have been outstanding. Feldman is a veteran holding onto a spot until McCullers gets healthy. He is off a bad start so he should be better tonight, but he has not had great success against KC. 2 of his last 3 has seen him give up 8 and 9 hits with 7 runs. He is not a good home starter either.
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Webbie | 8 |
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MIAMI Fernandez ML
Miami is a dog with their ace Fernandez on the mound. Fernandez like NYM 1.64 ERA and .158 average against. He is off his first home loss but I expect a great performance tonight. Syndergaard loves Citi Field. He is tough to beat at home. He has not faced the Marlins. MIA thinks of this as a rivalry, which NYM does not. NYM struggles to score so MIA will have a chance to win the game. That chance is greater than the line presents. Value play |
Webbie | 1 |
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Thanks tinfoils!
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Webbie | 3 |
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SEATTLE -0.5 1st 5 INN RL Hernandez goes for Seattle today. He is not the same pitcher of dominance he just recently was but has learned to pitch with a diminished fastball. He has been very tough on the A's going9-1 with 2.33 ERA. Bassitt counters for OAK. He has only won 2 games ever. He seems to pitch well enough at times, but can't close the deal. He is worse away from home with an ERA of 4.59. SEA likes to see him too. Their lineup has .289 average aginst him and he has a GSc45 vs SEA. We'll try to have the favorite jump out and get an early lead. I'll take them -0.5 1st 5 innings. |
Webbie | 3 |
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SEATTLE -0.5 1st 5 INN RL Hernandez goes for Seattle today. He is not the same pitcher of dominance he just recently was but has learned to pitch with a diminished fastball. He has been very tough on the A's going9-1 with 2.33 ERA. Bassitt counters for OAK. He has only won 2 games ever. He seems to pitch well enough at times, but can't close the deal. He is worse away from home with an ERA of 4.59. SEA likes to see him too. Their lineup has .289 average aginst him and he has a GSc45 vs SEA. We'll try to have the favorite jump out and get an early lead. I'll take them -0.5 1st 5 innings. |
Webbie | 1 |
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TB @ BAL Under 8
Several things going our way in this one. First is the weather. Not only will it be very cold, but the wind is crazy tonight in BAL. 36 degrees had wind 26 mph in from left or across from the left. The next is TB pitcher Smyly. He is not ace type yet but is getting better since surgery. In his L5 vs BAL, only once did he allow more than 1 run. BAL throws Wright who has not faced the Rays before. Many things add up to an under for this one. |
Webbie | 1 |
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PHI @ NYM Under 7 |
Webbie | 1 |
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Yes, sir. Thanks
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Webbie | 3 |
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TEX Holland ML Pick: Santiago is the starter for LAA tonight. He is 2-6 9GS in April. He is 1-4 L5 home vs Texas. He does not have terrible personal ERA or average against numbers but there is more to this story. Holland is 8-1 L9 vs LAA. Add to that, The LAA are the 2nd worst offense in MLB right now (only SD worse) as they have scored a grand total of 1 run this season! TEX is 11-4 L15 vs LHP |
Webbie | 3 |
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FREE PICK LAD Maeda ML |
Webbie | 1 |
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FREE PICK: CHC Lester ML Veteran ace Lester takes the mound tonight vs youngster Heaney. Lester knows hoe to get thru the tough spots in games and can rely on that presence tonight. He has been hit a bit by the Angels but no damaging power only 5 extra base hits of the 27 hits allowed. He also handles #1 threat Trout. Heaney has never thrown an April game his 2 years in MLB. He was a call up traded by MIA then missed the early part of LY with inj. He is very hittable and the Cubs do that! In his 1st 10 starts with ANA at home he as allowed 4.11 ERA and .256 average against. He is not familiar with their hitters. I'll go with the veteran to find a way to get it done tonight. |
Webbie | 5 |
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Both starting pitchers Liriano (Pit) and Wainwright (STL) have been around the MLB block. They have each started Opening Day games in the past. Wainwright is coming back from season-long injury in 2015. Although Wainwright will show solid if not fantastic numbers for his career in April, they are somewhat counterbalanced by how effective the Pirates are against him. Harrison, McCuthen, and Marte all have done very well versus Wainwright. They will show an ability to string multiple hits together to get their runs. It is expected to be very cold in Pittsburgh today. Games that are played in cold weather are affected by lowering scoring. I would expect a lower scoring game here today as well. Over/Under line is 6. Liriano has handled the Cardinals well in the past. He has an ERA of 2.58 and batting average against of .195 in 6 starts last year. Only Holliday has shown success off Liriano. Pittsburgh is a dynamic home team going 53-28 last year at home. Liriano is 11-0 L11 home starts! STL is 0-4 away vs PIT L4 tries. Wainwright is 15-4-5 Over vs Pittsburgh L24 tries. Wainwright FIP vs PIT 3.935 | Liriano FIP vs STL 3.699 Tight game, going with the home team
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Webbie | 3 |
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The official Wikipedia definition of regression to the mean is this. In statistics, regression toward (or to) the mean is the phenomenon that if a variable is extreme on its first measurement, it will tend to be closer to the average on its second measurement—and if it is extreme on its second measurement, it will tend to have been closer to the average on its first. This information can be used to aid us in baseball. Fantasy league analysis sites use this to help decide which hitters will stay hot. We can certainly use this information to our benefit when handicapping baseball games too. Charting GameScore for a pitcher the best way I have found to use regression. GameScore is a score earned by the starting pitcher based on how they pitched regardless of wins and losses. It is my preferred way to gauge starting pitcher performance. GameScore is a formula Bill James created. It rewards pitchers for outs and strikeouts but downgrades them for hits and walks, and runs. Anyway, the idea is to compare the scores. Pitchers are human and will have peaks with valleys in their performance, we are charting those scores to predict when those peaks and valleys are! It is not as difficult to do as it sounds. In general, you'll need to find the running history of GameScore for the pitcher. ESPN stats is good for this. The pitcher will have an average for the season and month. I use those as the "mean". Look at the last start, the combined average of the last three starts and a combined average for the last seven starts for the pitcher. We are comparing the recent performance to the mean. We are looking to see if he is over the mean with a possible regression back to it, or he is undervalued and going to perform up to the mean. Always look to see how many starts since his last poor outing or bomb. Good pitchers have 3-5 starts between bombs. Ideally, you want your pitcher to be performing without being in the regression zone. However, when they are susceptible to a stinker, do an in-depth research of his hitter matchups! If he does poorly versus the hitters he faces today, it just might be his regression day and our winning wager day. I have included the proper scoring for GameScore. It is listed below. The GameScore is listed in each box score summary as well. Game Score is a metric devised by Bill James to determine the strength of a pitcher in any particular baseball game. To determine a starting pitcher's game score: Start with 50 points. Think of this. We can to some degree predict when a pitcher will perform below his normal mean. We can also predict the opposite, so a pitcher will perform above his mean. Getting good at these scenarios throughout the season will provide untold opportunities we can capitalize on. |
Webbie | 1 |
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Yes you are correct. Away favorite showed 2 times the ROI as a home favorite did!
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strippersnbens | 19 |
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