Weeds1079

Plus, if it’s 4th and 1 and in fg range you know the defense is thinking “don’t go off sides”, “they are just baiting us”.  The offense line has the advantage because you can’t jump the snap. Goff fell and Montgomery still got 7 because the oline was. Across the line before the dline even got up. 

I think he saw it as this.

the odds of getting a yard from Montgomery running behind Sewell was greater than stopping love from getting into fg range in thirty seconds.

thats just a tie, but in OT anything can happen and a coin flip and blown coverage equals a loss.

what he did was make a call that if successful will ensure a team win with no chance of gb being able to touch the ball.

how many times have you seen teams leave time for Kansas City and it ended poorly? Or play to not lose? That’s not what Dan Campbell did and those players and fans have to respect that. He does this all the time. Even when 3-13 he did it against Philly in his first game coaching.  He did it in the nfc championship game (btw I was more mad he kicked the fg right before halftime). 

at some point fans, teams, pundits, and announcers will realize that’s MCDC and stop being surprised 

@dayknight

 Yeah puppy came back first part of second half only to go back to chasing rabbits

@Bet4real

 just realized I did Michigan/vtech. Oh well, msu is there just skip first few paragraphs 

 Line comes mgm -11.5 goes 10.5 in first hour to 10.5 and hangs at various juices(no buyback). Caesar’s comes -11 spin cycles and settles at 10.5. Dk follows mgm lead on this and even goes to 10.  Money at dk was on the favorite last night and this morning but two way traffic on tickets.

ou cones 144.5 and shoots to 145.5 in twenty minutes at mgm. Then start soon cycling. Caesar’s is more defined it smooth sailed from 144.5 to 146.5 with a touch of buyback mid morning.  Money defin

if I absolutely had to play this I would play the dog.

the msu/ Colorado really has nothing interesting on the over under.

on the spread I did find it interesting Caesar’s released the line at -5 and it shot 7.5. Meanwhile mgm waited to see and released at 7.5 a clear 2 hours after caesars. Both got to -8.5 before this afternoons buyback. 

idk, I’ll look out for the mgm data guy to see if he shows those numbers

Gross weekend in football

memphis/uconn comes out 152 at Caesar’s and drops a point in 10 minutes. Another .5 an hour after. Smooth sails 148.5 up until an hour ago when it got some buyback. Mgm follows almost same timeline except it took an hour to drop the point and their buyback was a full point. Dk was more laddered and they got resistance because they released 152.5 as a pre-release. 

play 

under 149

@Kellerman

 I played Indy. I’ve been a lions fan since Barry sanders, but this is a perfect scenario for them to crap the bed. 

I also  played pats/dolphins over 42 (bought) with commanders -6 at a positive rate 

I stayed the fuck away from bucs. Too many touts are on them. Feels and looks like bait. Plus bucs rush defense would make anyone look like a hall of famer. 

@dayknight

 Thanks man. I appreciate it. I’m looking at basketball games now.  I guess my words of advice would be that the most bet tickets at mgm have ? except for that week where the public cleaned up. 

Also Texans, dolphins, and lions are the most heavily bet teaser this year in nfl at betmgm. So which one loses outright? 

Pretty crap day yesterday. Nothing seemed to go my way.  

here is some info.  I’m keeping today’s plays to myself though. I don’t feel like be called a scam again, bad source, etc. do what you want with it 

Popular (+60% of bets) NFL Week 12 bets at #BetMGM

85% on Broncos -5.5

83% on Buccaneers -6

76% on Lions -7.5

71% on Packers -5.5

70% on Commanders -10.5

67% on Vikings -3.5

67% on Texans -7.5

64% on Eagles -3

63% on Cardinals -1

Most bet OVERs

1. Lions-Colts 50

2. Chiefs-Panthers 43

3. Broncos-Raiders 41.5

Most bet UNDERs

1. 49ers-Packers 44.5

2. Ravens-Chargers 51

3. Vikings-Bears 39.5

Lions -7.5 (at Colts) is the most-bet game by both total bets AND total $$ at @DKSportsbook  @BetMGM  and @ESPNBET

Sharp action on NFL Week 12 odds, from, per @joebrennanjr

: Sharp Play Rams +3 vs. Eagles Patriots-Dolphins Over 46 Lions-Colts Over 50

Sharp action on NFL Week 12 odds, from

@BorgataSports sportsbook director Tom Gable (tgablesports

):To Clarify: What's listed are the numbers that attracted sharp action. These aren't currently available numbers.

Eagles-Rams Over 48

Raiders +6, vs Broncos

Bears +4, vs Vikings

Colts +8, vs Lions

Bucs-Giants Under 41.5

Titans-Texans Under 41.5

have a good one

weeds

Ps: I’d need to be charging money to be called a scam. The word you are looking for is fraud. 

@Fackthecowboys

 The best thing that could happen is failed 4th downs by unc in bc sd of field. 

idk. It’s 55. I’ve sat worse. I see no reason to chase it. I’d rather go over first half on an under than under by a hair, those are the ones that never seem to end well. 

I’m playing

tulsa +17

Pitt +7.5

@dayknight

 I wouldn’t chase. You never know but sometimes it’s better to stop chasing the puppy and see if it comes back on its own. 

I’ll toss an inning or two. Sorry for the late post but I was busy with football.

Wofford/mill o/u comes out late last night at mgm at 145.5 and goes 146.5 in less than hour, moves 147.5 almost right away. Holds until mid morning and now shooting again to 148.5. No buyback.  Ceasars follows same exact way except they get to 149 before it gets buyback. Dk was bipolar and laddered the move with some resistance.

play

over Wofford 148.5

@PerfectStorm

 It was probably just a mistype on the email USA was never -2

@IntenseOperator

 And you as well. Gl on Ohio state. If you play I gotta ask are you playing original line ? Because if you take osu no reason to play 10

@PerfectStorm

 I wouldn’t fade prime sharp/wiseguys. They are all northeast folks that got limited at DK/fanduel (or kicked out) and they live to far from Atlantic City.

they aren’t 100% but they hit at a clip. 

@bigred84

also Indiana doesn’t win because the biggest underdog bet at betmgm, dk, and others is Indiana ml

I’m playing 

bc under 50.5

SMU und 58

and then parlayed at ole miss -6.5 and SMU under 63 and bc under 55

im not feeling that Ohio state game at all

The view from

on College Football Week 13 odds, per sportsbook director Tom Gable (

): "Respected play on the following here this morning: Texas State -20.5 [vs. Georgia State]; UNC-Boston College Under 51.5. "We have seen respected people on both sides of the UNC-Boston College game on the spread. And the same with BYU-Arizona State."

That Texas state -20.5 is showing up as a sharp play at a few places. 

@IntenseOperator

 True. You know that game isn’t ending between 14 and 10. It’s either going to be close or just a massacre. 

@IntenseOperator

 Of all the sharp bets I’ve heard it’s the auburn game where I’m a nope on.  I get Texas am has Texas next week but too many on auburn.  When sharp and public agree this late in the season on a dog it never ends well