Weeds1079

@warrenator

 No. You obviously haven’t watched a Philly game.

its like trying to watch a poodle jerk off with super glue

@Martylee

 Worse it was fields. If you are going to throw 25 yards down field in a snowstorm maybe not use your second string qb 

To be fair it’s almost not fair for Pittsburgh to be able to wear white in a snow game.

Jameis already has a hard time seeing safety’s and corners. Now they are basically camouflage 

God I really wish Pittsburgh tried to throw the ball before the blizzard rolled in. Or called a timeout instead of rolling the clock with 1:30 minutes left at half. Or didn’t put fields in for third downs.

just a comedy of errors. 

fingers crossed browns have ball security issues

@fer44

 Under? I took the over. You scared me thinking I wrote under.

@Maukaboy

 I thought I put the quotes in,

this is the sharp Sportsbook out of ohio

Where the sharps and public are, and all other things TNF at

: Steelers -3.5/total 37 "Twice as much smart money on PIT than CLE." But overall: "Handle on both sides is pretty evenly matched. But if we got a dream outcome, we would love PIT by 5 to beat the straight bets, including those who bought points. "Or PIT by 11 to beat teasers." On the total: "Total isn't much of a decision, but we need Over 37 for a cup of coffee."

this is super book that takes respectable money out of Vegas 

to answer the obvious question 

did you really just fade superbook sharps?

yes, sharp money on the browns has lost all year.  If prime sports was sharp on browns I would have considered it.

and yes I feel teasing the over is safer than teasing the under. Not one poster on covers has taken the over publicly (maybe a few) That’s weird the public (you/me) aren’t playing the over in a televised game. (No offense)

so superbook in Vegas has been known to take larger bets from respectable people.  

NFL Week 12 Odds: Unlike the situation at other sportsbooks, @SuperBookSports needs Steelers at the moment, for TNF vs. Browns.

“We have more tickets on the Steelers, but more money on the Browns. So right now, we're rooting for a Steelers cover."              – Risk manager Casey Degnon

THIS IS THE SHARP BOOK OUT OF OHIO

Where the sharps and public are, and all other things TNF at @primesportsbook, per

: Steelers -3.5/total 37 "Twice as much smart money on PIT than CLE." But overall: "Handle on both sides is pretty evenly matched. But if we got a dream outcome, we would love PIT by 5 to beat the straight bets, including those who bought points. "Or PIT by 11 to beat teasers." On the total: "Total isn't much of a decision, but we need Over 37 for a cup of coffee."

betmgm data guy is just posting memes that everyone likes the Steelers, and going over basketball college/nba. I’m sure he will give raw numbers in a bit but the writing is on the wall.  

Alright. From the pictures and reports from Cleveland it’s snow that’s basically cold rain. The flags on the goal posts aren’t whipping but the Dawson and American flags are.  

the sharp money and we have covered it is.

browns +3.5

under 41 

I spent most of the day dwelling on how bad the sharps have been on nfl totals and the browns this year. It’s uncanny how many unders have gone over in the early 4th quarter that had respected money. 

I can’t stop thinking about how cold Jameis Winston is going to be. How Russell Wilson loves to throw interceptions in the red zone. Will stefsnsky go for it on 4th and 2 at the 40, obviously but how many times?

Honestly I wish I could play the prop

”will the browns lose in gut punch fashion?” At +150 

I can’t though.

I do like the fact both superbook and prime (both sharp action books) need Pitt. I trust both more than mgm and draft kings.  
the play 

Pitt Ml parlayed to over 33 1unit

pitt -5 at plus money  1 unit

have a good night

weeds

Dude please look at my thread “betting info for tnf”. I have the ticket/ handle for multiple books both online and Vegas. 

I think you might be misinformed or read the line wrong. It happens, no biggie, but the money is firmly on the Steelers.

i hope this helps, and if not, best of luck on your wagers tonight

Thanks guys for letting me throw a few innings. Have a good rest of your night.

weeds. 

@buffer

 Do people that sell plays move lines? Idk. Maybe? But if you are asking if the 100 people that bet his plays move the line…no, the risk Manager doesn’t care. Not even a little. 

from what I have seen and witnessed the people that move lines don’t have a side hustle on selling plays. Why bring that attention? Why screw the book that is okay with you playing and not limiting you to action size? You and the risk manager are on first name basis, why destroy that.  You get freedom to wager, the risk maker gets to take a position that benefits the book and a better profit than just vig .  

Pros usually are into statistics/actuary/ finance, extremely disciplined, bet 1 or 2 games when the lines come out, and disappear. They don’t have websites, a business card, and not in the gallery watching the game.

Most bet (tickets) Steelers-Browns player props at #BetMGM

1. George Pickens over 58.5 receiving yards

2. Russell Wilson over 182.5 passing yards

3. Najee Harris over 17.5 rushing attempts

4. Jameis Winston over 216.5 passing yards

5. Najee Harris over 67.5 rushing yards

first thing I notice?

why is nick chubb not being played heavy? 25mph wind and rain? Any time td is +150 for Chubb and if the sharps are right Cleveland is coming to play, why dafuque are they not playing plus money?

the next thing?

jameis Winston has thrown for over 300 in 2/3 games. Pitt has given up under 215 last two.  That passing total came out 213. Money firmly on over.

What could go wrong? 

Very welcome. Glad I haven’t ruined your afternoon…..yet. Haha

im superstitious. Let’s let this thread die until after the second game. I’m a little weird when it comes to getting excited before the games are done. 

Early sharp play on NFL Week 12 odds:

CaesarsSports, per Joey Feazel:

Commanders -10, vs Cowboys

Ravens-Chargers Over 48/48.5.

@BorgataSports, per tgablesports

Browns +4.5/+4, vs. Steelers in TNF

Eagles-Rams Over 48/48.5

borgata is mgm property in Atlantic City. Shocking they have sharp on the eagles over. Just kidding. 

Today I’m like a pitcher in spring training playing a few innings to try and find his curve.

Fau comes out +1.5 at both mgm and Caesar’s . stuck on the overnight at various juice. Line flips to pick early morning, then to -1.5 in an hour. MGM got buy back but it was short lived. Dk as always followed suit. 

dk

59% tickets and 81% money on fau spread 

65% tickets and 89% money on fau ml 

the play 

Fau -1.5

First update

Public bettors

Steelers on #TNF:

87% of tickets , 93% of money

on PIT -3.5 at CircaSports

 84% of tickets, 90% of money on PIT -3.5 at

@BetMGM

 82% of tickets, 67% of money on PIT -3.5 at

@DKSportsbook

81% of tickets, 64% of money on PIT -3.5 at

@ESPNBET

78% of tickets, 80% of money on PIT -3.5 at

@BetRivers

Updated Steelers-Browns betting at #BetMGMsteelers

open -4.5, now -3.5

90% of bets, 84% of money on Steelers

Total open 40.5, now 37

54% of bets, 50% of money on Over

@Browns

open +200, now +165

23% of bets, 11% of money on Browns

what I see?

yesterday mgm was 54tickets/ 75% money on under and now it’s a two way street 50/50 action. Did the increased money move the total from 37? Nope. Nothing respected came in, so mgm is holding on their under position.

personally o/u sharp has sucked all year in nfl. But unless I see buyback I might tease this out to under 41 and play Pitt on ml. I’m more comfortable with taking Wilson and his huge hands (Google it) that played in rainy Seattle for years over Jameis who hasn’t played a cold weather game since 2016 (played Minny last year and it was 52 degrees, he was okay).

the X factor is Chubb, his stats are good against Pitt, but I don’t trust the coach to do the logical thing. 

IM STILL IN A HOLDING PATTERN

Yes. I’m actually on my way to Caesar’s now

@buffer

 Idk those 4 teams are on the lopsided ticket list at 

dk

espnbet

bet-on (not Texans)

initial movement was against texans, K.C. aren’t covering machines. Although dd favs are 5-0 this year.  It has just as good a chance as any other 4 teamer.  Don’t go in thinking those teams can’t possibly lose. I guess that’s my advice.
As a 30 year lions fan this is the time we disappoint the most. The world loves us, so of course we are going to kick them in the balls because we have the bears on a short week

I usually don’t get into college until after the invitationals. Let’s see how rusty i am.

 drake line comes out at mgm at 10.5 and shoots to 9.5 in first hour, rebounds, and settles back to 9.5. Caesars it falls but with resistance, basically spin cycling between 10-10.5. Line sits 10 now.

dk

71% of bets and 64% of money on Miami 

no injuries reported

Drake +9.5

Sorry wrong forum