wscoga03

• Portland Trail Blazers (+6)

6 points is way too much to give one of the best home teams in the NBA.  This game is going to be hard-fought and close throughout, I don’t think either team will hold a double-digit lead at any point during this game.  I calculate a 5-point Vegas implied advantage for the Heat, mostly because of the public bettors that are enamored with the Heat, no matter the circumstances.

One of the biggest angles in this game is the fact that Miami is playing 3 time zones west of their local time.  That means Miami will be fighting major jet lag.  I couldn’t believe I got this line at +6 on SIA.  Portland is definitely the right side and a +EV bet, let’s hope they follow-through.

• Phoenix Suns (-10.5)

The Cavaliers are the 29th ranked team, in terms of scoring margin on the road.  They lose by an average of 12.2 points on the road and they are riddled with injuries.  Add-in the fact that they already know that their season is doomed and it is a formula for a route.

I would be absolutely shocked if Cavs can score enough to be competitive in this match-up.  The Suns have been under-performing lately, so expect them to be really hungry for this win.  The Suns are not in the position to take any wins for granted.

• Dallas Mavericks (+5.5)

The Mavericks have a huge 4.9-point home referee advantage in this game, they also have the same weekend marquee match-up advantage that the Bulls have tonight.  The Mavs are hurting without Dirk and Butler, but they are getting used to playing without them.  Marion and Stevenson have stepped-up their games.  They are still a good team and rely on a stout defense, more than their offense.

The Magic are on a huge win streak, so the don’t have much reason to be too hungry in this road match-up.  They are susceptible for a let-down on, playing back-to-back on the road.  Orlando may squeeze a win out, but they won’t be able to cover 5.5 points.

Final Play:

• San Antonio Spurs (-5)

I calculate a 5-point Vegas implied advantage for the Spurs here.  The Spurs will also enjoy a below-average road disadvantage due to a good referee draw.

The Pacers are a bit of a rag-tag team and have trouble hanging with elite teams, like the Spurs.  The Spurs are without Parker, but Ginobli and Hill are more than capable of splitting the point guard duties.  The Spurs should cruise to an easy road victory here.

• Los Angeles Lakers (-4)

The Lakers are the better team and they have a bit of a fire, due to recent miscues.  The scheduled refs in this match-up tend to give a below-average home team advantage of 3.2 points, so there isn’t anything fishy going on.

I calculated the Laker’s Vegas implied advantage to be 8 points, the largest of all the plays tonight.  The Suns have a pretty ineffective bench that will have difficulties keeping up with the Lakers deep squad.  This should be a high-scoring game, so the Lakers shouldn’t have a any issue clearing the 4 point spread.

• Los Angeles Clippers (+3.5)

Brief:

The referees calling this game impose a staggering 6.6 point advantage to the home team.  One of the refs calls a fair game consistently, but the other 2 will drown-out his fair influence.  The Clippers also have a 6.5-point Vegas implied advantage, according to my calculations.

The Clippers have been making big strides lately and look more like the team I expected them to be, before the season started.  The Clips are on 2 full days of rest and should come out prepared for the Nuggets tonight.  They could easily come away with the win but take the points, since it’s up to +3.5