wudl83

Prospect

Posts: 139

Member Since: April 2014

Status: Offline

About me:

Signature:

Filter Posts by:

Entries	Thread Author	Posts	Activity
replied to Over under betting system in Systems & Strategies Quote Originally Posted by Buford1: Wudl83, Thanks for all your work here.....it's fun to play with. I just discovered sportsdatabase and the query possibilities are endless. One question I have would have to do with the umpire behind the plate. Some show remarkable tendencies to go over or under. Any way to work that into the system? Or maybe just a final check before entering the bet? Thanks again for sharing. Pat Thx. Hm - I think we really could include this in the system somehow. The only problem I have with things like these is that I want to keep it as simple as possible. I know that you are right, indeed you are! Some umpires show trends as well as teams or pitchers do. But the more variables or numbers I add the more prone to failure the system will become IMO. This is because of the case that different information HAVE to be weighed different. One variable is more important than another. The more variables (or numbers) the more work one has to do. If set up properly I think a system including umpire trends or even other stats would be very very solid. But as I said, the problem will be to weight the different stats/numbers accurately. View Post \| View Thread	wudl83	101	May 22, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Over under betting system in Systems & Strategies You got to add the pushes to the overs as well as to the unders before dividing them through the sum of the overs+unders+pushes. In case of the Nats game: - overs: (21+4)/(21+27+4) - unders: (27+4)/(21+27+4) I am not at home right now and can't look into my Excelsheet but I think this could be the problem, right? I don't want to promise too much, but as I said yesterday I still played around with the backtesting and changed some criterias here and there. It may very well be that I have found something like a whole when betting on overs and unders. This would be the easiest system on earth if the backtest continues to show the numbers it shows me right now. Like I said I don't want to promise anything, but IF the trend goes on I could have found a system with a win pct of .60 or more. And all you need would be a few very easy criterias and only 6 numbers. But let's wait and see. :) View Post \| View Thread	wudl83	101	May 22, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Giving this another shot in Systems & Strategies Keep it rolling! View Post \| View Thread	BCap888	455	May 22, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to u can go with odds BLIND in Systems & Strategies Don't know if there are any flaws but what I can tell is that I thought the same thing about chasing money lines and runlines compared to over/under bets. I totally stay away from chasing money or run lines right now and focus only on over/under. Perhaps you could use sportsdatabase for queries to backtest your thoughts? View Post \| View Thread	DoughDoubling	100	May 22, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Pythagorean Plays of the Day in Systems & Strategies As I see you should have made profits with winning nearly all bets yesterday. Have fun @ Vegas! View Post \| View Thread	MrECapps	194	May 22, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Over under betting system in Systems & Strategies Quote Originally Posted by Ordinaryday6: i'd appreciate seeing your spreadsheet, if you don't mind. i was also wondering which book you use? you always get way better odds than i do here in vegas. thanks! hopefully this rough patch gets better soon... Calculations will be uploaded from now on as you can see in post #58. As in the line next to my username above the posts you can see my sportsbook. I am using pinnacle. It doesn't raise any taxes and has the best numbers available over here in europe. View Post \| View Thread	wudl83	101	May 22, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Over under betting system in Systems & Strategies Using CanisMajor's hint really makes it much more easier to query, thanks. Still learning all possibilities the query system offers. I think sportsdatabase can be a very useful tool. Not many possible picks today as a ton of pitchers will be starting with less than 5 starts to date. But besides the game at Boston all matches meet the criterias for a bet. Calculations: https://www11.pic-upload.de/22.05.14/g2ts32sx5wxu.png Picks: 2014-05-22 PHI @ MIA, o 7.5, +113 SFG @ COL, u 9.5, +103 LAD @ NYM, u 6.5, +109 MIL @ ATL, u 7.0, +101 ARI @ STL, u 7.5, -109 HOU @ SEA, u 7.5, -117 Let's hope the pitching gets it done! View Post \| View Thread	wudl83	101	May 22, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Over under betting system in Systems & Strategies Quote Originally Posted by wudl83: 2014-05-21 OAK @ TBR, o 7.5, -107 3-2 Yesterday: 0 w, 1 l, 0 p, -1 u Overall: 13 w, 7 l, 2 p, +5.82 u As I said I only include what I have posted. Everything else would be bad manner. If you want to I could upload a screenshot on my calcs for the next bets so you can compare if our numbers match? View Post \| View Thread	wudl83	101	May 22, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Over under betting system in Systems & Strategies Thanks guys. I didn't know the thing with the 'today-x' CanisMajor posted for sportsdb queries. That's a nice hint. CanisMajor, you were right. In fact I was mowing our big lawn yesterday and forgot to post 3 other bets. which I had planed to do afterwards. I did go 2-2 yesterday instead of 0-1. Here is the spreadsheet for yesterday with all possible bets, the games with starters with less than 5 runs are already deleted from it: https://www11.pic-upload.de/22.05.14/g1vbbzd3zj4h.png The green ones would have been bets (as far as meeting the other criterias, which they did yesterday). Don't know what my brain was doing and why I forgot it, sorry. Maybe it was dried out from working in the sun for so long. The other bets would have been: CIN @ WSH, u 7.0, +107 PHI @ MIA, o 7.5, -109 CHS @ KCR, o 8.0, -114 I would have been more or less even, but as I was too dumb to post the picks I won't include them to my stats in my next post. Sorry guys. View Post \| View Thread	wudl83	101	May 22, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Over under betting system in Systems & Strategies Additional facts for the game: Athletics: - with Milone starting the total score went over 7.5 in 5 of his 7 starts - in the last 14 road games of the As the total went over 7.5 10 times Rays: - with Bedard starting the total score went over 7.5 in 5 of his 6 starts - in the last 14 home games of the Rays the total went over 7.5 10 times View Post \| View Thread	wudl83	101	May 21, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Over under betting system in Systems & Strategies 2014-05-21 OAK @ TBR, o 7.5, -107 View Post \| View Thread	wudl83	101	May 21, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Over under betting system in Systems & Strategies @lakshow: Yeah you're right. It wouldn't be realistic to expect to be able to carry a 0.7 win pct over the whole season. @BenchCoach: Yeah, that's what it's supposed to do. When you look at the upper left you got to move your eyes to the second line which starts with 'OU' which means 'over/under'. The next numbers are the relevant ones. For the O's you get '9-9-0', meaning 9 over, 9 under, 0 push. View Post \| View Thread	wudl83	101	May 21, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Over under betting system in Systems & Strategies Quote Originally Posted by wudl83: 2014-05-20 ARI @ STL, o 7.0, +105 0-5 Yesterday: 0 w, 1 l, 0 p, -1 u Overall: 13 w, 6 l, 2 p, +6.82 u Currently doing more backtesting and probably changing some criterias. Still work in progress. View Post \| View Thread	wudl83	101	May 21, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Over under betting system in Systems & Strategies Maybe two other recent examples. Both picks from yesterday. I still am little bit grumpy because of Aroldis Chapman. If he had been able to close this damn game, I would have won both bets. The next foolish things happened in extra innings. I have lost the CIN @ WSH pick, but 1) it was close, very close and 2) I call it bad luck. My pick was: CIN @ WSH, u 6.5, -100 The closing line was: u 6.5 -114 Meaning that I was able to beat the closing line. Stats before the game: Reds: - scored only 3.07 runs per game over the last 14 overall and only 2.2 runs per game over the last 9 away games - with Mike Leake starting the Reds have conceded 3.38 runs per game Nationals: - scored only 2.86 runs per game over the last 14 overall and only 3.5 runs per game over the last 8 home games - with Stephen Strasburg starting the Nats had conceded 4.00 runs per game overall but only 2.2 runs per game over his last 5 starts I hadn't looked into those numbers when placing the bet, I only looked into the over/under 'hidden trends'. The odds changed into my direction and the stats (which I didn't know when picking) would also suggest a bet on the under IMO. I still consider picking the under as a good bet, sadly I lost it. Similar to this goes the other pick. Second pick was HOU @ LAA, u 7.5, +105. Closing line at pinnacle: u 7.5 for +103. Not big of a difference, but I got the better line early in the morning. Taking a look into the stats pregame we could see: Astros: - scored 4.08 runs per game over their last 13 but only 3.56 runs per game in their last 9 away games - with Keuchel starting the Astros have conceded 4.25 runs per game but only 2.67 in away games Angels: - scored only 3.63 runs per game over their last 16 and 3.7 runs per game in their last 10 home games - with Richards starting the Angels have conceded only 2.75 runs per game IMO those numbers point towards a bet on u 7.5, too. But I didn't have to look into them, I got it from the 'hidden trends' of overs and unders. Know what I mean? I found this out randomly, too. I don't know if it's coincidence or not. But somehow this is eye-catching when taking a deeper look at it. View Post \| View Thread	wudl83	101	May 20, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Over under betting system in Systems & Strategies Sorry - mistake: the under wasn't a dog early in the morning, the under was favored. As you can see here: https://www.betexplorer.com/baseball/usa/mlb/st-louis-cardinals-arizona-diamondbacks/jaI62ina/ (look at pinnacle odds, pinnacle is my bookie) View Post \| View Thread	wudl83	101	May 20, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Over under betting system in Systems & Strategies Quote Originally Posted by lakshow25: Thanks I'll try it out, any picks for today. The only pick was the Cards game from post no. 32. There are some games which won't be looked into because of some starters have less than 5 starts. All the other possible games don't have at least a over or under pct. of .590 or higher. Funny thing (at least 'somehow' funny) is that those accumulated trend numbers and percentages indeed point towards a certain direction. When we look at the Cards game of today, which is my only pick, we get: - ARI away: 6 o, 8 u, 2 p - STL home: 6 o, 3 u, 3 p - Arroyo: 3 o, 4 u, 1 p - Wainwright: 4 o, 2 u, 2 p We get a lot of pushes. Therefore I expected the line to not be a whole number. But I got the line at 7.0. Misstake by the bookie? Maybe, don't know. Besides that I got the over 7.0 for an odd of +105 early in the morning at 8:50 a.m. (take into account that I am from Germany and right now as I write this post it's 4:13 p.m. over here). The under was a dog. I don't know what's your opinion on it, but punters in Germany have the assumption that "beating the closing line" is a good indicator for picking value. And guess what? Right now the numbers have changed. Meanwhile the over was favored and is at -111. I have noticed that quite some time since starting this blog, that when I pick early, the numbers often change in my favor. Besides that look at this: - Wainwright got a run support on average of 6.28 in his last 7 starts - the Cards scored 5.1 runs on average in their last 10 at home - the Cards scored not less than 3 runs in their last 10 games (9 times at least 4, 6 times at least 5) - when Arroyo started, the Dbacks conceded 5 or more runs in 4 of his 8 starts - in the last 15 Dbacks away games the total score was 7 runs or more 10 times and they conceded 4.53 runs on average in those games - the Dbacks scored more than 2 runs in 17 of their last 22 away games and at least 3 in each of their last 8 away games Now please look only at those numbers. Would you expect a total of 7? To be honest I wouldn't. I would at least expect a bookie total of 7.5. The nice thing is I would have chosen the over if I had looked into those numbers. But I didn't have too. It was all 'hidden' in the recent over/under stats. Somehow the bookies didn't get it. View Post \| View Thread	wudl83	101	May 20, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Over under betting system in Systems & Strategies Because of the results from the backtesting. Let's assume that the average of all odds you pick over the course of the season is about -125 (indeed they should come closer to -115 but let's take this as an assumption). When you bet 1 unit on odds of -125 you have to win at least .56-.57 pct of your bets to make profit. My goal was to find criterias (see post #29 for my current ones) which come at least close to a winning pct of ,59, because the profit of a .56-.57 win pct would only be marginal. I looked around and tried different criterias for chosing bets in my backtest and ended up with the ones I posted. Therefore I have to say, because I want to be honest, that I still was not able to backtest a whole season! But: My backtest consists of a little bit more than 1200 games right now, which leads me to the assumption that the backtest of the whole season won't be much different in the end. Indeed I tried a few different things regarding criterias: 1) Only play bets where the calculation gives the over or under at least.700. The problem was here that they indeed won on a really high average, but since the calculated pct is more than .700 you would play about (exaggerated) 1 or 2 bets per month if at all. 2) Then I drove down the percentage required for a bet to take place down more and more in a few steps, from .650 to .625 and ended up with .550. But those bets didn't show a win pct of at least .590 which I was aiming for. But .590 seemed to be something like a "sweet spot". 3) After that I looked for some other criterias, e.g. that starters should have at least 5 starts over the last 55 days and was able to increase the win pct a little bit more. I also found out that betting over on totals of higher than 8.5 would hurt more than it helps, same thing in the other direction with betting on unders when the total was 6.0 or below. Hope this helps. I am still (indeed right now) doing more backtesting. The results arent't any different than what I have told before. It still shows me a win pct of about .600 when using the criterias I made public. If you have any more questions feel free to ask. View Post \| View Thread	wudl83	101	May 20, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Over under betting system in Systems & Strategies Another example in wich I switched out the "season=2014" for starters, maybe it could be misleading, although the results aren't any different to the query results below. SFG @ COL, M. Bumgarner vs. F. Morales: 1. Teams: 1a. Giants: - query: "date>=20140415 and date<=20140520 and team=Giants and site=away" - result: 4 over, 11 under, 1 push 1b. Rockies: - query: "date>=20140415 and date<=20140520 and team=Rockies and site=home" - result: 9 over, 6 under, 0 push 2. Starters: 2a. Bumgarner: - query: "date>=20140325 and date<=20140520 and starter=Madison Bumgarner" - result: 5 over, 4 under, 0 push 2b. Morales: - query:"date>=20140325 and date<=20140520 and starter=Franklin Morales" - result: 4 over, 4 under, 0 push 3. sum it up: - 22 over, 25 under, 1 push - 0.48 over, 0.54 under - no bet View Post \| View Thread	wudl83	101	May 20, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Over under betting system in Systems & Strategies In general the queries look like this (the brackets have to be filled of course): 1. Query for teams: "date>=[first date=35 days ago] and date<=[second date=today] and team=[team name] and site=[home or away]" 2. Query for starters: "date>=[fist date=55 days ago] and date<=(second date=today] and starter=[starter name]" Example: BAL @ PIT today (2014-05-20), starters M. Gonzalez and F. Liriano: 1. Query for teams: 1a. Baltimore: - query: "date>=20140415 and date<=20140520 and team=Orioles and site=away" - result: 8 over, 9 under, 0 push 1b. Pittsburg: - query: "date>=20140415 and date<=20140520 and team=Pirates and site=home" - result: 10 over, 7 under, 0 push 2. Query for starters: 2a. Miguel Gonzalez: - query: "season=2014 and date<=20140520 and starter=Miguel Gonzalez" (normally we would have to use a "first date" here, but the season isn't old enough, so we can still use only the second date as a filter) - result: 5 over, 2 under, 0 push 2b. Francisco Liriano: - query: "season=2014 and date<=20140520 and starter=Francisco Liriano" - result: 3 over, 5 under, 1 push 3. sum it up: - 26 over, 23 under, 1 push - 0.54 over, 0.48 under - no bet Got it? View Post \| View Thread	wudl83	101	May 20, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Over under betting system in Systems & Strategies 2014-05-20 ARI @ STL, o 7.0, +105 View Post \| View Thread	wudl83	101	May 20, 2014 View Post \| View Thread

About Us

Contact Us
Careers
Our Team
Brand
Testimonials

Betting Guides

Sportsbook Reviews
Sports Betting News
Podcasts
Responsible Gaming

Sports Betting

US Betting Sites
Canada Betting Sites
Canada Casinos
Best Betting Apps

Contests

Streak Survivor
King of Covers
Ultimate Race
Office Pools

The Covers community has

618,670

lifetime members worldwide

Join our community today

Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.

Site Map Help Privacy Terms of Service

Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo

If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.

wudl83 Follow Follow Unfollow

wudl83