Australia v Ireland

How Australia got within a whisker of pinching the French game is still beyond me. They were outplayed in every aspect of the game yet if they hadn't knocked on inside the last 2 minutes may well have won it. Les Bleus were very, very good mind you but even so I thought the Wallabies looked very flat and disjointed.

Cheika is still working on his combinations, particularly in the backs, and while he'd love to win this one his focus is on next year. Ireland on the other hand are reasonably settled, know their pattern, have shown themselves to currently be the best European side, have just knocked off the Boks and would love to add the Wallabies scalp to their belt.

Australia may well win but there is no question who should be favourite in this game and it sure isn't the boys in gold.

My book has it $1.90 take your pick and I've got to have something on Ireland early at this price. I might even get better close to match time in which case I'll have another bite.

I'd love Australia to win but I've got to bet with my head rather than my heart.

Good punting all

Quote Originally Posted by Target2million:

Coming down iresh 1.75 now.  As well as walse  now +14.5.

9.45 Thursday morning here and NSW TAB are still showing $1.90 take your pick.

As for the AB's game I won't be touching it. While in the past NZ loved to rub their opponents nose in it once they got them down they've been a bit different of late. Hansen is playing around with his squad but even so a 30+ point win would not surprise. The ruthlessness has been missing from the AB's of late so I won't back them and I couldn't possibly back Wales.

Hugo, I agree with a couple of your points. Wallabies predictably went for more size at 6 but this means Hooper will need to be a lot busier than his (extremely uncharacteristic) quiet game last week. Kuridrani has been our most dangerous player (yes, more so than Izzie) of late and just seems to be getting better and bigger each time I see him.

I just wonder if the overall backline combinations are smooth enough and how Cheika will utilise the bench. Kurtley works better with Foley than does Toomua but Toomua works better with Kuridrani than does Kurtley. Genia and Quade work best in tandem but will Cheika make a double halves replacement? Where and when will he bring Quade on and have the outside backs sufficient experience of playing with Quade to capitalise on his innovation? Is Toomua a genuine 12 or is he another 10 clogging up that spot? Will Kurtley come on while Foley is still on the field or will he be playing outside Quade? Etc etc.

I can see Cheika again using this game to trial combinations, which I can understand with WRC in mind, but that is not going to help us beat Ireland.

As far as Ireland's injuries and replacements go I confess that I am somewhat ignorant. However there recent record speaks for itself and while Cheika might be looking at this game as a stepping stone and part of a "work in progress" I doubt that the men in green are approaching it the same way.

I hope that you are right about the result but winning on the punt (in the long run) is about getting "over the odds" and at $1.90 each of two there is no question in my mind as to which side is over the odds and which is under. 

I'm starting to warm to ABs in their game. They're putting a proper side on the paddock this time. I can picture the locks and backrow being far too good for the Welshmen and the talk of them causing problems midfield will be talk only. No way Roberts gets through SBW and Conrad will read Davies like a book. With the ball the AB halves are too classy, Ben Smith is back where he is most dangerous, Savea will score as always and the centres (contrary to some opinion) will prove more dangerous than their opponents. Throw in Ritchie's 100th at the helm and the fact that it is their last test of the year and I can see AB's putting on a show. If they hit their straps covering 14.5 won't be a problem.