Well, the first edition of "Sticks out' (Panthers v Broncs) was nailed after extensive analysis.
This is another game that sticks out.
The dragons have won 9 in a row, however there last 2 games they have really showed signs of slowing down. Most disturbingly in the second halves.
The NRL is arguably one of the hardest grinding comps in the world and the dragons players are in the thick of origin.
Everyone thought last week that the Tigs were good things to beat them. IMO, the drags players who played origin (what 7 of them), were running on adrelinen for the tigs game. In the second half, the adrelinin started to run out and these guys were running on fumes.
NOW, after last weeks win against the tigs, IMO, the drags players said, "i am damn knackered, time for a bit of relaxation, we have the rubbish eels this week who we thumped 4 weeks ago 30 blot.......This week should be no different. We need a rest in intensity, we can afford to do that this week against a crap team."
In that game 4 weeks ago, the Dragons, in particular Gasnier RAPED the Eels left hand edge in the 1st half and opened a big lead. In the second half, the Eels made adjustements at half time and the Drags i believe only scored 1 try.
The Eels are gonna be much much better for the run and SHOULD know what to do defensively on Gasnier this time round.
Furthermore, Cooper is out who pretty much has been there best player. Morris the finisher is also out.
Now, combine the complacency factor which IMO i think will be big for the drags this week (origin fatigue both mental + physical combined with the fact that this team killed the Eels 4 weeks ago adds to that complacency) with the fact that the Eels are gonna be better for the run and be much better and they will be at home makes the +10.5 extremely delicious.
The Eels will have got some confidence from the last 2 weeks and look so much better without Morts, add that with Hayne having an opening for an origin points to a nice Eels covering the spread. I wouldnt be surprised if the Eels even win.
Eels + 10.5 looks like the bet of the weekend........
Thoughts