Rugby + NRL beat your book

Few NRL games coming in few hours.

My bet coming soon

The Sea Eagles have been abysmal without Trbojevic since he burst onto the scene in 2015, and they haven’t managed to find a way to fix it. In fact, in their past 26 games without their superstar fullback, the Sea Eagles have only managed 7 wins. It won’t be easy for them this week, taking on a Raiders side that has surprised many in their 2-0 start to the season.

The Raiders have managed to score 30+ points in wins over the Warriors and Broncos and appear to be one of the most exciting young teams in the NRL. With halfback Jamal Fogarty back from a long injury last season pulling the strings, the Raiders have the right mix of talent and experience to be a real contender this season.

These teams met twice last year, with the away team winning on both occasions. In round 9, the Raiders headed to 4 Pines Park as massive 13.5-point road underdogs and were down 24-6 with 27 minutes remaining. The Raiders stormed home, scoring four unanswered tries to get the win, 26-24. The teams met again in round 23 at GIO Stadium, with the Sea Eagles going off as 3.5-point road favourites. This time they didn’t allow the Raiders back into the contest, dominating the middle 40 minutes of the game to win 46-24.

This week, the Sea Eagles were listed as 10.5-point favourites on the lookahead, before re-opening as 4.5-point favourites with the terrific performance from the Raiders last week, and the uncertainty surrounding Trbojevic. Once Turbo was officially ruled out, the Raiders were bet down to just 2.5-point dogs, where the number is at the time of writing. With a fully fit Turbo, I’d make the Sea Eagles a 5.5-point favourite in this one. I believe Trbojevic is worth more than 3 points, and as such see good value in the Raiders to get the win at Brookvale on Sunday night.

Total wise, the number went from 49.5 on the lookahead, and it has not moved despite the loss of Trbojevic. You can look at this both ways, in that the Sea Eagles attack will be compromised, but so too will their defence. I make a fair 46.5, but with the way the Raiders have played in attack this season so far, there’s no way I’d bet the over.