Some NRL Stats - O/U so far this year

Question

Including last nights 2 games, there has been 44 overs and 66 unders so far in 2011.....In the last 42 games, 29 of those have gone under. Unders hitting at 60% YTD and basically 70% in the last 42 games. That is very abnormal

This even after the bookmakers have adjusted totals recently.

Common totals these days are around 36/37.

Surely, surely the points scored are gonna have to be reverting back to the mean soon.

Thoughts?

Rostos · Answer

Including last nights 2 games, there has been 44 overs and 66 unders so far in 2011.....In the last 42 games, 29 of those have gone under. Unders hitting at 60% YTD and basically 70% in the last 42 games. That is very abnormal

This even after the bookmakers have adjusted totals recently.

Common totals these days are around 36/37.

Surely, surely the points scored are gonna have to be reverting back to the mean soon.

Thoughts?

Dpha003 · Answer

Yeah games have clearly been low scoring as teams copycat what St George did last year. Which is why I think the team that wins this year is one that can score points. That would be the likes of Cowboys, Sea Eagles and I would think the Storm is up there aswell.

norseman67 · Answer

I noticed last year with how I looked at matches that if I didn't like the over, it had a huge strike rate of going under - no diff this year.

Look for teams that match up well - that doesn't always translate over, hard to explain without current example. Scoring stats of last month or so in relation to season - home away, and is there a trend against better teams in the standings.

norseman67 · Answer

And how many times do we see them on or inside the 5 meter line, 3-4 tackle and they run right back to the defense where the last tackle took place with 4-5 players waiting.

Some NRL Stats - O/U so far this year

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