Excited for another weekend of opportunities. My approach to the weekend is to take my best 1-2 conviction plays for each time slot. If I'm unable to jump on a live line d/t an early goal or some unanticipated event occurs (i.e., red card, VAR, missed PK), I'll usually have 2-3 plays in the back pocket I can jump on. No need to chase anything w/ so many games on slate.
Real Valladolid/Villarreal - Saw the 1H over 1 sitting at -150 and initially thought it should be an automatic over play because why not? The goals scored:conceded ratio for both teams is 8:21 and 18:18 through 10 games. Do the math and both basically see around 3 goals/match. Weird thing is that the 1H over is being offered at 1 instead a 1.25 split like almost all other games involving teams w/ similar goal stats. Looked into the match deeper and discovered two factors that smells like a trap to me. 1. Valladolid's played 5 at home and 5 on the road w/ goal splits of 3:4 and 5:17, respectively (yea they played more clinical sides on the road than at home but Villarreal can be counted as one, too) EXCEPT 2. This Villarreal side is NOT the same side that started the season on the offensive side. Danjuma gone (don't know why they continue to loan him out when he's proven enough to be able to help the side). Moreno, Pepe, Ayoze, Yeremy Pino all injured. Step in Thierno Barry, a youngster picked up from FC Basel during summer, and Akhomach, a natural MF, to lead the lines w/ Baena. Not really a mix I want to bet on. Could be a good opportunity to hit the under 1 at plus money but rather a no touch for me.
Napoli/Lecce - It's almost unfair that Conte has basically a week off in between games to prepare for the next opposition while his closest competitors for the Scudetto are juggling and squad rotating for even more European competitions this season. Should've considered that angle and made a futures play on Napoli to win the whole thing smh. No chance Napoli is going to lay an egg against Lecce here and think that they lead this by halftime. All of Napoli's home games this season, except its' first competitive match in Coppa Italia this season, have featured 1+ goals in the 1H including 2 in its' last 2. And Lecce just got thrashed 6-0 by Fiorentina last weekend. On the 1H goal runner here if I'm able to get up in time to grab the 0.75 lol.
Stuttgart/Kiel - Was VERY impressed by Sttugart on Tuesday watching them DOMINATE a solid Juventus side IN TURIN and coming away w/ a well-deserved three points. I know this team got somewhat gutted by its' rivals over summer but boy does Hoeneb have his boys battling. While there could be an argument for a letdown here, just don't see it w/ the punching boys of Bundesliga coming to town. Kiel's given up 2+ goals in EVERY match this season. The defense is just a sieve and Stuttgart's gotta be licking its' lips after getting held scoreless for the first time this season last week against Bayern. Stuttgart need the points and I expect to see a goal(s) in the 1H. 1H goal runner in play.
Man City/Southampton - Southampton's prize for handing over precious relegation battle points in its' 2H meltdown at home to another relegation competitor last weekend? Lol. Disorganized, devoid of any special talent outside of Tyler Dibling, and probably at an emotional low after last week, I'm expecting City to have this over by halftime. Grabbed the -1.25 spread on City at even money and will be looking for an opportunity to grab a 1H goal line live. Could play the 1H over 1.5 at -135 but already have the spread bet which i think is basically the same thing w/ better odds as Southampton is not scoring here. Will look for an opportunity to take the in-game 1H over 1 but think we see an early City goal before the floodgates open.
Will be back in and out throughout the morning but wanted to get these up as I probably won't be up until EPL games start.
.Can't believe Napoli spit the bit against a bottom feeder like Lecce 
Only got 1 play for the mid morning.
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