10/28/24 Domestic League Thoughts

Decided to take yesterday off as Sat just was a grind and I wasn't feeling the vibe of the games. Hopefully different this week.

Galatasaray/Besiktas - The Istanbul Derby. Earlier in the season Besiktas ran Galatasaray off the field in a 5-0 Super Cup win that was probably a lot closer than the scoreline leads on but the result was pretty surprising nonetheless. Since then Galatasaray added Oshimen and w/ the quality on both front lines I can't see this going under unless there is some serious poor finishing. Took the over 3 at -125 ln and will look for a 1H goal bet opportuntity. 

Sorry about the double post. Glad that first goal came quickly. Actually took it at -195 at the 9-10 min mark because I just felt strongly about seeing a 1H goal. You'd expect that Galatasaray was pissed about that game I mentioned above and would come out on fire.

11AM games have a few top Scandanavian teams in action (Malmo and Djurgarden in Sweden, Nordsjaelland in Denmark, and Bodo/Glimt in Norway) whose games I love betting. Personally leaning towards taking Bodo on the 1H goal runner as 1. no 1H goal has been seen in its' last 3 games, 2. it seems to have found its' shooting boots in its' last game against Braga grabbing 2 in the 2H after two straight goalless draws, and 3. it's locked in a tight battle for the title w/ Brann. Not mention Rosenberg is in its' own chase for a European competition spot and you're not going to beat Bodo at home w/o at least netting once. At least there will be some games to pivot to in case I can't grab a live line quick enough.

 Whew. Got the double win on Bodo but any play woulda been a winner in the 1H for the Scandinavian countries. Woulda loved trying my hand on one of the other games if that first goal woulda came earier but will take the wins. Of note, Sweden and Norway have just over a month left in the season and definitely can tell the desperation in these relegation battle entrenched teams. Might be worthy of some plays moving forward.

@I3C1H

 Might be worth to look on that Malmo game, Malmo double chance at -200 right now thinking of picking it up if its still 0-1 at 55-65 min 

@Quasari

 Hmm ok. A bit surprised at the odds as I can't see Malmo losing this thing w/ the title still in balance. What do you think about the over 2.5 at -130?

Jumped on Nordsjaelland over 0.5 at -170. Nords have scored in every game this season so far and Randers have only kept three clean sheets all season. I rate this Nordsjaelland higher than Randers and can't imagine Randers keeping a zero on the board for two games in a row.

@I3C1H

 Could hit, Could be worth a sprinkle to go on Malmo ML even but it might end 1-1 like their last game so im probably waiting to see if i can get double chance at good odds

@Quasari

 Ah ok I see your logic. Ok actually seems like a solid play for me. Will keep track. Thanks for the heads up!

@I3C1H

 No worries, Im going to wait until about 50-55 and go on it, thinking about parlaying it with Porto ML to see if i can get + odds 

1-1 malmo 

Got the parlay Malmo double chance + Porto ML at just about +100 odds 

@Quasari

 Wooo! Nice call! 2-3 min right after I placed lol

2-1 Malmo 

@Quasari

 Goteborg seems like they had been getting results recently, too, and have played Malmo tough over the years. Good win!

AVS/Porto - Final play of Europe for me. 1H over sitting at -130. Porto in recent years seems to play down to its' competition and has a penchant for late game drama but I think they've turned the corner here after finding its' goalscorer for the near future in Omorodion. Reminds me of Duran in terms of his rawness but both def have a knack for sniffing out goals. Reckon they'll both get big moves sooner than later. AVS defense seems to be on the stingier side but they played Sporting a month ago and were down 2-0 heading into halftime (although the game was in Lisbon). Just think the quality between the two sides is enough for Porto to nick 1-2 goals in the 1H. Will hopefully be able to grab the 0.75.

Went PORTO -1 live when the price dropped enough.  Worst case I see is a push

Porto 0-1 just in time 

Porto 2/0 now, AVS probably won't score so we should both be good

Now 3/0 PORTO, this one is going to get ugly, blowout city

 porto

@icemantbi

 they'll stop at the half, under might be worth a look at ht 

(Usually what happens after these types of first halves)

4/0 now wow I did not expect that tbh

@Quasari @icemantbi

Wow same for me. I saw 2-0 by halftime at best but jeez this Omorodion kid is such a talent. 3 shots, 3 goals. I was thinking bout taking his hat trick runner but chickened out ugh. Goal odds were +110, +400, +1900. Shoulda thrown down 

It happens. Best to not think about it and move on theres always more games 

@Quasari

  Well said

Under 5.5 -105 looks good still 0-4 at the 85th min