10/3 Euro League And Conf League Thoughts

Qarabag/Malmo - Will most likely be my play of the morning. Certainly see a 1H goal w/ both teams having been goose-egged in Round 1 when both tbh should've been able to net 1 at least w/ the former being up a man almost the entire game and the latter at home. Qarabag is still largely the same squad that pushed Leverkusen to the brink of elimination last year and I'm sure they're salivating its' first Euro League home opener. Combine that w/ Malmo's ability to get on the scoresheet and I just really love this play. Over 1, over 0.75, I'll take whatever I can get live.

Ferencvaros/Tott - Was interested in seeing how Ange would roll out his lineup and after seeing the squad rotation won't be touching this at all. The Hungarian champions don't concede much in league play and are formidable at home and we've seen teams in the top 5 leagues go to Eastern Europe only to put up uninspiring performances. Ferencvaros to score live may be worth a punt at some pt.

Lazio/OGC Nice - On the fence about this one. Since Lazio moved on from Sarri they've been an offensive juggernaut and I love that Taty/Dia combination up front. My only question is Nice; are they different from the team of last season that conceded very little but also didn't score much? Numbers early on seem to indicate so but that could also be inflated as a result of the 8-0 drubbing of Saint Etienne a couple weeks ago. Last weekend they saw off a goalless draw in Lens. The over 1 sat at almost even money w/ the over 2.5 at plus money as of last night. I would think w/ Lazio's goalscoring prowess and being at home the over 2.5 would be more likely but something seems off. Will wait and see.

Cercle Brugge/St. Gallen - My fav Belgium Pro League team to bet on 1H goals. They score and give up goals fairly consistently. Not too familiar w/ St. Gallen but love seeing Kevin Denkey starting this one. Likely a 1H over play.

Good luck this morning. Will be back w/ halftime thoughts.

 Love me a double winner in under 20 min. Cercle Brugge came too early but o well.

And there's the Lazio goal woooo 

Quick thoughts w/ halftime approaching

Qarabag/Malmo - 1H went as expected. Both teams probably see this as a winnable game and if this goes tied into halftime could see at least another goal to put some separation between the two. Will wait and see.

Ferencvaros/Tottenham - Maybe Ange is finally putting his footprint on the team. Thought Ferencvaros would have been dominating the 1H but all the best chances have gone Tott's way. Probably a no touch for me rest of the way as I'm not sure if Ferencvaros will actually get on the scoresheet.

Lazio/Nice - Happy to get something out of the game but kicking myself for not maximizing profits. I guess we know though that 1. Lazio's offense is for real and 2. Nice's defense isn't as good as last season. Good to know moving forward.

Olympiacos/Braga - Bit disappointed to see Olympiacos net that late 1H goal as that would've been my 2H play. Of note, this Braga team is NOT the same team as yesteryears. Losing Djalo and Abel Ruiz has really pegged them down a notch this season offensively as I've been burned on totals involving them a couple times.

Struggling to find a play in the 2H. Could see goals in 1. Hoffenheim/Dynamo Kviv (actually could see Kviv netting 1 here given they've yet to score in this competition so far and Hoffenheim's defensive susceptibility) 2. Qarabag/Malmo (see above), 3. Molde/Larne (not familiar with the Northern Irish squad but Molde at home and w/ that offense should bring this home) and 4. Noah/Mlada Boleslav (this is the same Noah squad that knocked out Greek powerhouse AEK out of this comp and Armenians at home will be tough to hold off).

Will put up noon game thoughts soon.

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Only ended up taking Dynamo Kviv over 0.5 small for the 2H of the morning games but don't think they're getting on the scoresheet  

Besiktas/Eintracht Frankfurt - After getting shutout in Round 1, I can't see that Besiktas attack getting stifled in this one at home. Frankfurt isn't my favorite to bet on for goals but they can put em up too every now and then. 1H goal likely here.

Copenhagen/Jagiellonia - My favorite Polish team to bet on for goals and up against a Copenhagen side that can score themselves? Could be the better 1H goal play than Besiktas/Frankfurt. Will wait and see.

Chelsea/Gent - Gent's a good side but this is a huge step up in competition even w/ a rotated Chelsea squad. Attackers are so interchangeable in this side (although Palmer is global talent and Jackson's made a huge step up this season). I can't see Gent quieting this Chelsea side for far too long.

That's all I got. Gluck to everyone and the rest of your plays.

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Great day today. Besiktas/Eintracht Frankfurt hitting both over 1 and over 0.75 in under 23 min puts the icing on the cake. Won't be pushing the action on 2H plays as there's not a ton I like at first glance (maybe over 0.5 for Besiktas or Febernache). Quick rant though...

Fiorentina - I just don't understand this squad. With all that talent having come through over the years (Vlahovic, Nico, etc.) they just seem to be perennial underperformers. Yea I know they made it to two straight conference league finals but they seem to mentally switch on/off throughout the whole season. And of course today they shit the bed in the 1H against a squad from Wales who isn't even in the top of the league. I've learned to not bet on their games (especially against supposedly weaker competition in these Euro games) but man even w/ a rotated squad not to be demolishing this Welsh side is embarrassing. Pretty sure this is going to end 1-0 2-0 w/ a late goal or something.