11/20 Write-up and Plays

 

1. Slovenia/Kazakhstan 1H over 1 (-105): Not interested in determining motivation in these final qualifiers so naturally this game sticks out given the high stakes involved. Slovenia is in the second automatic qualification spot w/ the possibility of overtaking Denmark (unlikely), playing host to Kazakhstan, who is only a pt behind them w/ the possibility of qualifying for their first ever major tournament. Kazakhstan can't play for the draw; they HAVE to go for it against a superior team on the road and w/ a proficient attack. Slovenia has scored in the 1H in 6 straight games and in the 1H of every home game except against lowly San Marino. I'd like to bet Slovenia to score 1H and books seem to agree on the 1H 3-way line but the juice was too high for my liking. Given that both teams have demonstrated a penchant for scoring and giving up goals, I'm going over 1 1H w/ the anticipation that if any team scores, which I anticipate will happen early, it's going to be a VERY open game. Could be a game we see 3-4 goals in the first half. If any team has not scored in the first half (possibly Kazakhstan), will be taking it live in the 2H at solid plus odds.

 

 

2 and 3. Ukraine/Italy 1H over 1 (-110), Italy over 0.5 1H (-120): Similar situation as above. Both are on 13pts, but the tiebreaker is so much in Italy's favor that Ukraine basically needs to win. I anticipate there will be chances on both sides in the 1H w/ Italy nicking 1 in the 1H. Italy seems to have shed the perception of being a fortress in the back, having given up a goal in 7 out of their 9 past games w/ the 2 games they did not give up a goal being against lowly Malta. Meanwhile, the offense has been able to generate goals, including scoring in the 1H in 7 out of their 9 past games again.  Again, similar to above, 1 goal from either side and the game opens up BIG because it becomes a do-or-die for the final automatic spot. And given Italy's recent hx in the playoffs, I'm sure they won't want to go down that route. Again, if any team has not scored in the first half, will be taking it live in the 2H at plus odds.

4. North Macedonia over 0.5 (+125): I love this spot for North Macedonia to score. Southgate playing reserves on the road against a team they drubbed 7-0 earlier in the campaign. And North Macedonia has scored in all their home qualification games so far. Hoping to catch Macedonia to score their first goal in the 2H at much better odds but just in case.

Other games I like:

 

Denmark/Northern Ireland: Denmark just needs to equal or better Slovenia's result to lock up the top spot. Denmark's the far superior team against a squad that has nothing to play for and I anticipate they'll win the first half. Will be looking to take the 1H over 1 live at some pt.