11/29 Write-up and Plays

Overall Record: 5-4-3

Was out of town and didn't have access to a computer so wasn't able to get up plays since last Tuesday

1 and 2. Sevilla/PSV 1H over 1 (will take live at -120 or better), Sevilla 1H over 0.5 (+100): Was going back and forth between taking action on this game vs Galatasaray/ManU and decided 1. the numbers look better here 2. I have a feeling that Galatasaray/ManU will be tight and cagey. Sevilla has an outside shot of securing qualification to knockouts but it needs a win here w/ its' last match on the road against Lens. The reverse fixture featured 17 shots in the 1H but finished goalless at the half before a goal explosion in the 2H. I don't see that happening today w/ Sevilla desperate for a win in a raucous environment. Plus PSV hasn't conceded in its last 4 competitive matches and its' defense can't be that good right? By the way, same two teams played in last year's Europa League Round of 32 and Sevilla dominated PSV 3-0 at home on its' way to another trophy. Think Sevilla nicks one early (hopefully not too early so I can get in the 1H over 1). Thinking about it I'll bite on 3. Sevilla over 1.5 (+123).

Leans: Btts, Sergino Dest to be carded (for my yellow card enthusiasts, dude hasn't been carded yet in Champions League yet but his temperament was on clear display during international break. Might be worth a play at live odds, especially w/ the expectation of Sevilla attacking down the flanks to feed crosses into the box).

Speaking of Galatasaray/ManU, don't know why I feel like goals will be at a premium this game. ManU needs a win while Galatasaray could hold out for a point knowing Copenhagen probably won't better its' result in Munich and the two could face off in Copenhagen in a couple weeks for all the marbles. If anything Galatasaray 1H over 0.5 (-105) might be worth a bite but holding off for now...Do expect fireworks in terms of bookings this game.

4. Montpellier/Clermont Foot 1H over 1 (-110): Numbers play. In Clermont's 5 road games so far, 4/5 have featured at least a goal in the 1H including 2+ in 3/5. 10/12 Montpellier league games this season have featured a goal in the 1H. I'll bite, may even double down on over 0.75 if I can get the right odds.

Will be back later for afternoon plays.

Overall Record: 7-4-5

Not a bad start to the morning. Wish that second goal in the 1H from Sevilla would have stood to cash the 1H over, too, but will take the wins. No time for write-ups but will see if I can in the next hour.

5. Benfica/Inter 1H over 1 (-110)

6 and 7. Sporting Braga/Union Berlin 1H over 1 (will take live), Sporting Braga 1H over 0.5 (-115)

Overall Record: 8-5-6

1-1-1 for the afternoon. Really surprised about the Benfica/Inter result. Took Benfica 1H over 0.5 a minute before kickoff after I saw the Inter lineup. I remember reading from one of the better cappers here years ago how Italian teams don't rate these European competitions as much as the Scudetto, and while I'm sure Inter wants to replicate last year's success w/ how significant the money can be as teams progress in these competitions, clearly they are prioritizing keeping pace w/ Juventus w/ Napoli on hand this weekend. Thought Benfica could nick one early but did not see them decimating Inter. As for Sporting Braga/Union Berlin, very lucky Union was able to find the net for the late push after that red card. Think Sporting Braga will still find the net at some point, but my book is only offering over 1.5 at the moment so will see if I can get over 0.5 at some point.

Edit: I guess Sporting Braga scored while I was typing up my thoughts. Bummer. By the way, that Alvaro Djalo kid who scored is a STUD and I reckon he'll get a move to one of the top 5 leagues sooner than later.

Overall Record: 8-5-6

8 and 9. Palmeiras/America Mineiro 1H over 1 (will take live), Palmeiras over 1.5 (+165): Down to the last 3 games of the domestic season w/ 6 teams, maybe even 7, having a real shot at lifting the domestic title. Palmeiras is on top on GD w/ all top four teams playing today including Flamengo and Atletico Mineiro facing off today. Can't get any easier for Palmeiras today facing last place America Mineiro, who's already been relegated a while back, at home. America Mineiro's conceded 2+ goals per game w/ 13 out of its' last 15 games featuring a goal in the 1H. W/ the possibility of GD deciding the title, expect Palmeiras to pepper shots on America Mineiro's goal all game. Hoping Palmeiras gives it some time before opening up the scoring to grab the 1H over at better odds.

Overall Record: 9-5-6

Couldn't get the 1H over 1 in time because Palmeiras scored less than 2 min in but that would've hit. Makes me wonder if I should've drank the juice at -227 pregame but have seen "for sure" bets lose so it is what it is. Luckily got the 2nd goal to cash the 1H over 1.5 for Palmeiras at +165. Either way only recording the 1 win since I couldn't make the 1H over 1 an official play for myself. Will put up plays for Europa/Conference League tomorrow morning.

Thanks for sharing blud. 

And yes missing the good old days of this forum with specimen24, Mr.bollox and some other great cappers sharing their view. 

@Andalouse

 Ah you knew who I was referring to  Definitely learned a lot from them over the years