A different beast in Europa/Conference League w/ deciphering motivation, gaps in talent, and so on. Honestly, my depth of knowledge of some of these teams from lower ranked domestic leagues is somewhat lacking so tread lightly.
1 and 2. AEK Athens/Brighton and Hove Albion 1H over 1 (will take live), AEK Athens 1H over 0.5 (+113): Playing in Greece is a different beast (see West Ham when they visited Athens last month) w/ the travel and the raucous environment. AEK already surprised Brighton in matchday 1 so don’t anticipate Brighton being caught off guard here, but Brighton’s also not conceded in two straight matchdays (though both games were against Ajax) despite conceding in every single one of its’ Premier League games so far. Yea, I’m not a believer in its’ defense.
3. Atalanta/Sporting Lisbon 1H over 1 (-115): Hard to get a read on both teams’ likelihood of scoring in the 1H. Despite the names on both frontlines, both have screwed me messing around in the 1H before going off in the 2H, but in the reverse fixture, Atalanta peppered Sporting Lisbon’s goal w/ 12 shots in the 1H on the road, netting 2. And Scamacca is starting today. I’ll bite.
4. KAA Gent 1H over 1.5 (+165): If Gent is motivated, good value here w/ Gift Orban starting.
Sorry about the late post.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Overall Record: 9-5-6
A different beast in Europa/Conference League w/ deciphering motivation, gaps in talent, and so on. Honestly, my depth of knowledge of some of these teams from lower ranked domestic leagues is somewhat lacking so tread lightly.
1 and 2. AEK Athens/Brighton and Hove Albion 1H over 1 (will take live), AEK Athens 1H over 0.5 (+113): Playing in Greece is a different beast (see West Ham when they visited Athens last month) w/ the travel and the raucous environment. AEK already surprised Brighton in matchday 1 so don’t anticipate Brighton being caught off guard here, but Brighton’s also not conceded in two straight matchdays (though both games were against Ajax) despite conceding in every single one of its’ Premier League games so far. Yea, I’m not a believer in its’ defense.
3. Atalanta/Sporting Lisbon 1H over 1 (-115): Hard to get a read on both teams’ likelihood of scoring in the 1H. Despite the names on both frontlines, both have screwed me messing around in the 1H before going off in the 2H, but in the reverse fixture, Atalanta peppered Sporting Lisbon’s goal w/ 12 shots in the 1H on the road, netting 2. And Scamacca is starting today. I’ll bite.
4. KAA Gent 1H over 1.5 (+165): If Gent is motivated, good value here w/ Gift Orban starting.
Yikes. Afternoon games look better on paper but who knows.
5 and 6. Liverpool 1H over 1 (will take live), Liverpool over 1H over 1.5 (+135): Jurgen semi-rotating and even then the talent gap is so immense I can’t see Liverpool not leading at the break. 1H over 1.5 is even money but don’t think LASK’s going to help here.
7 and 8. Nordsjaellend/Fenerbahce 1H over 1 (-125), Norsdjaellend 1H over 0.5 (+104): Numbers play. No goals for Nordsjaellend since scoring in the 1H of their last Conference League game 3 games ago. This is the same team that put up 7 at home against Ludogorets on matchday 2, and yea, Ludogarets isn’t on the same level as Fenerbahce (though Ludogarets did beat Fenerbahce at home 2-0 on the last matchday) but Fenerbahce’s conceded in all their Conference League matches so far.
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Overall Record: 9-8-7
Yikes. Afternoon games look better on paper but who knows.
5 and 6. Liverpool 1H over 1 (will take live), Liverpool over 1H over 1.5 (+135): Jurgen semi-rotating and even then the talent gap is so immense I can’t see Liverpool not leading at the break. 1H over 1.5 is even money but don’t think LASK’s going to help here.
7 and 8. Nordsjaellend/Fenerbahce 1H over 1 (-125), Norsdjaellend 1H over 0.5 (+104): Numbers play. No goals for Nordsjaellend since scoring in the 1H of their last Conference League game 3 games ago. This is the same team that put up 7 at home against Ludogorets on matchday 2, and yea, Ludogarets isn’t on the same level as Fenerbahce (though Ludogarets did beat Fenerbahce at home 2-0 on the last matchday) but Fenerbahce’s conceded in all their Conference League matches so far.
That’s better. Wasn’t able to get the Liverpool/LASK 1H over 1 at reasonable odds (-250 at the 11th min?!) so not counting that into the record but would’ve hit. Quickly…
9 and 10. Toulouse over 0.5 (+101), over 1.5 (+624): High risk, high reward here since we're up for the week. Taking a runner here. Toulouse has scored in every home game in all competitions so far and USG doesn’t really inspire confidence. Plus will Toulouse be held scoreless in 2 straight games? Doubt it.
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Overall Record: 12-8-7
That’s better. Wasn’t able to get the Liverpool/LASK 1H over 1 at reasonable odds (-250 at the 11th min?!) so not counting that into the record but would’ve hit. Quickly…
9 and 10. Toulouse over 0.5 (+101), over 1.5 (+624): High risk, high reward here since we're up for the week. Taking a runner here. Toulouse has scored in every home game in all competitions so far and USG doesn’t really inspire confidence. Plus will Toulouse be held scoreless in 2 straight games? Doubt it.
11. Gremio/Goias 1H over 1 (-120): Numbers play. Gremio still in the race to lift the domestic title and secure an automatic Copa Libertadores spot but coming off two straight losses and bagels. Goias in a relegation battle themselves. Think Gremio finds the net in the 1H but not worth the juice.
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Overall Record: 12-8-7
Pending the Toulouse/USG game.
11. Gremio/Goias 1H over 1 (-120): Numbers play. Gremio still in the race to lift the domestic title and secure an automatic Copa Libertadores spot but coming off two straight losses and bagels. Goias in a relegation battle themselves. Think Gremio finds the net in the 1H but not worth the juice.
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