1/19/25 Thoughts/Plays

Ipswich Town/Manchester City - Was scourging through the total shots/SOG for tomorrow's games and found a gem: Liam Delap 2+ total shots at -113, 3+ total shots at +218, 1+ SOG at -106, and (can't believe I'm writing this) 2+ SOG at +500(!!!). Delap's props are insanely undervalued here as I've seen defensive midfielders and even wingbacks w/ shorter odds than those priced for the STRIKER, PENALTY TAKER, and MAIN COUNTERATTACKING THREAT playing at home against his former club. Revenge factor? Check. And Delap's no slouch either as he's tied for 24th in the league w/ 18 SOG (for context Son and Luis Diaz have 19, Isak and Nicolas Jackson are tied for 4th w/ 28) and tied for 12th w/ 8 goals (right behind the likes of Ollie Watkins and Nicolas Jackson and ahead of Solanke, Gakpo, Anthony Gordon). He averages 1.8 shots/game and 0.9 SOG/game. I just don't get the lines, especially when Manchester City has given up 18 shots (Brentford), 10 (Salford of all teams), 17 (West Ham, who actually outshot them at the Etihad), and 11 (Leicester) their last 4 games and have continued to show their vulnerabilities on the counterattack, which Ipswich excels at. The one knock on Delap could be that he sometimes tends to disappear due to gettting starved of service but he's a player who makes his shots count. And at Portsman Road he plays so much better. Against Chelsea a few games back he had 5 of Ipswich's 9 total shots w/ 4(!) on target. Against ManU 3 total shots w/ 2 on target. Against Aston Villa 3 SOG w/ 2 goals. You get my jist. In the reverse fixture against City back in week 2, Delap put up a fat 0. He'll be up for this game and probably will net one. On shots/SOG ladder.

@Ganda

Love the write up mate, best of luck to us!!

@Andalouse

 Thank you! Glad it's helping some individuals!

Not even 30min in and Delap's at 2 total shots w/ 1 SOG. Playing w/ house money at this point. Next shot (hopefully SOG) to cash the big +215 +500 bets!!

Verona/Lazio - A bit bummed out that that first goal came very quickly but had a feeling that Lazio would come out firing after a dismal run in form. Verona gives up a TON of chances and this seems to be already firing on all cylinders. Will be looking for an opportunity to get that second 1H goal.

Deleted repeat post

Just played lazio 2nd 1st half goal in the 20' -125

boom 22' goal. .Should we try for a 3rd lol

@tt_boy

 Lol nice timing! Glad it cashed right away  Lol I'm always hesitant going for the 3rd goal in the 1H  

Yeah think I'll pass on the 3rd but played ov 3.5 for the game

@tt_boy

Nice! That probably had some nice plus odds attached and think this game can get ugly. Thinking about making a play on Verona to score if I can grab some nice plus odds in the 2H as they haven't scored the last 2 games. Maybe a garbage goal 

Unfortunate that the game got so far away from Ipswich that they took him out smh almost had a shot at hitting both if Ben Johnson could've cut back to him but at least the 2 total shots and 1SOG hit in the first half. Onto the next.

Damn Lazio scored on 58' 0-3 then park the bus