12/1 Write-up and Plays

Overall Record: 12-10-8

Disappointed that the Toulouse bets didn't come through. Thought Toulouse would be able to net one minimum in its' last group home match to secure qualification to the knockouts. On retrospect, Panathinaikos was probably the better gamble taking into account Villareal's leaky defense this season but earlier results from Greek teams put me off. You live and learn. Onto this morning

1. Warta Poznan/Jagiellonia 1H over 1 (+118): Numbers play. Think there's value in the Ekstraklasa when it comes to totals in spots. Matches on average see 2.7 goals but lines don't seem to align accordingly. Jagiellonia leads the league w/ 36 goals and has conceded 21 but was blanked out in a 0-0 draw last match. Prior to that, its' 1H has featured 1+ goal in 7 straight matches. Warta's seen 1+ goal in its' last 5 1Hs. Thinking 1H pushes at worst.

@I3C1H

2 minutes in and you got 1,great call 

@I3C1H

 Boom! SUPER fast goal 

Overall Record: 13-10-8

Nice little start to the morning.

2. Randers/Vejle 1H over 1 (-110): Another numbers play here. Was looking at both Bundesliga 2 games and this one before deciding to go w/ this. 15/18 out Randers games have featured 1+ goal, and it leads the league in GA w/ 31 given up. Velje's last 3 games have ended 0-0 at halftime. Bucking the trend here w/ Velje considering 1. the likelihood of 4 straight goalless 1Hs and 2. imagine both teams see this as a game that can be won.

Side note: Really curious to see the numbers in matches where top sides play each other and bottom sides play each other. Anecdotally, think I've seen more open games and goals in games involving bottom sides and relegation as teams seem to "go for it" knowing that the opponents are probably as easy as it's going to get but that's just my subjective thinking. 

@LEAFSRGR8

@djmurphr

  Love to see it. Get that early goal and free roll the rest of the 1H. 

@I3C1H

 Unreal Randers misses a PK I needed Randers 1H to complete a nice 3 team parlay

Overall Record: 13-11-8

Nothing drives me more crazy than missed penalties but it is what it is. Maybe that's deserved after realizing I made a mistake in the write-up as Velje's last 3 games ended in a draw at halftime (not a goalless draw last game) so I was bucking the trend expecting either team to be up at halftime. Missed penalties and goals overturned on VARs seem to signify the beginning of a bad run for me so going tread lightly today.

3 and 4. Darmstadt/Koln 1H over 1 (-125), Darmstadt 1H over 0.5 (+106): Darmstadt's 5 out of 6 home games this season have featured 2+ goals w/ Darmstadt finding the net in all 5 against Bochum, Leipzig, Werder Bremen, M'gladbach, and Berlin. Last home game against Mainz? 0-0. Go figure. Last 4 Darmstadt's games have ended in draws at halftime. 7 straight games w/ 1+ goal in Koln's 1Hs. Numbers look good to me. 

@nopulpjuice

Ugh that sucks. One of the things that worry me about these bottom dwellers is their ability to score goals. That's one of the reasons why they're at the bottom, but you'd think they would be able to find the net relatively easier against each other. Wishing you better luck on your next bet.