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12/13 Write-up and Plays

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Prospect
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Joined: Nov, 2023
Posts: 202
Posted: #1

Overall Record: 22-23-14

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2023
Posts: 202
Posted: #2
Overall Record: 22-23-14
 
Been almost a week since last post. Games have been all over the place recently.
 
1 and 2. Crvena Zvezda/Manchester City 1H over 1 (live bet), Crvena Zvezda 1H over 0.5 (+180): Motivation. That's the key word for this round of matches. Do teams have something to play for at this point? Crvena Zevezda is already out of Europe altogether and City locked up the top spot of group so why take action here? Because Crvena Zvezda is a proud team and who wouldn't want to say they took it to the current champions of Europe, especially when this is the last European game of the season for the home team. And do you think City, in the middle of a domestic league funk that's rarely, if ever, been seen in Pep's tenure, wants to travel to Serbia in the middle of winter for a meaningless game? Probably not, but Pep may want to use this game to work out issues the team currently has. Regardless, think it's a good spot to take a shot on the team from Belgrade. City's defense hasn't exactly been formidable, and playing in Serbia isn't a gimme for top teams (just ask Liverpool when they lost 2-0 in Belgrade in its' last Champions League winning season). And books seem to agree, as odds for Red Star to score was sitting at -167 as of last night. Will be interesting to see the lineup Pep rolls out.
 
Be back later for noon plays. Definitely see potential in the bookings market for a few of these upcoming games.
 
Prospect
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Joined: Nov, 2023
Posts: 202
Posted: #3
Overall Record: 22-24-15
 
Week Record: 0-1-1
 
Really lucky to be able to turn the Red Star disappointment in the 1H into a pretty sizeable gain taking them to score over 1.5 live but wasn't able to post. Quickly...
 
3. Porto/Shakhtar Donetsk 1H over 1 (-120): Love finding spots where a team hasn't scored/conceded in multiple straight games. Here we have Shakhtar not having conceded 4 games in a row on the road against a team that seems to be finding its' offensive rhythm the last few games w/ knockout implications on the line. Don't think we see a barn buster like the reverse leg but do think we see a goal minimum.
 
4. AC Milan over 1.5 (+170): I get Newcastle is at home but it's down to its' backup midfielders and defenders and the recent results have shown. Meanwhile AC features its' first choice attacking options while seeming to be finally clicking after a slow start to the season.  The over/under is set at 2.75 at -120 but AC Milan is getting +170 for 2 goals? I don't get it. Taking a bite here as this can get open VERY quickly.
 
Also will be looking to take the over on bookings in the following games: Newcastle/AC Milan, Dortmund/PSG, Atletico Madrid/Lazio. Would recommend monitoring what's going on in the first 2 games before jumping in.
 
Sorry about the late post. Hopefully live options are available. Good luck!
 
 
Prospect
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Joined: Nov, 2023
Posts: 202
Posted: #4

Busy w/ work but...

 

5. Newcastle/AC Milan total bookings over 5.5 (+119): Not sure if this is still available but, if not, would wait to see if it can be grabbed somewhat similar. If Magic Mike is getting carded, this second half is going to explode w/ cards.

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