12/15/24 Writeup and Plays

Happy Holidays everyone hope everyone's been well!

1. Lazio/Inter - Grabbed the 1H over 1 at -120, took the over 2.5 at -110, and will be on the 1H over 0.75/0.5 if the opportunity allows. Lazio's been one of my fav teams to back the over this season and it's certainly paid off. Taty is suspended but they have 5-6 interchangeable attackers capable of going off (Noslin hattrick last week, Isaksen's worldly to grab a double over Napoli). Add an Inter squad that's also capable of adding goals into the mix, and I have this pegged at a total of 2.75 and even 3. Also love the fact that this is a 6-pointer in the race for the Scudetto.

2. Adana DS/Besiktas - Galatasaray. Fenerbahce. Besiktas. The big 3 I try to target for live overs as the pregame juice are usually a bit too expensive for my taste. That being said, Besiktas offensive numbers seem to have taken a dip compared to the start of the season as 3 out of its' last 4 domestic league games have gone under 2.5. IF the majority of Besiktas' preferred attackers (Immobile, Rafa Silva, Rashica, Kilicsoy, Fernandes) all start, the live 1H over will be in play as Adana DS features the leakiest defense in the league by far.

3. Porto/Estrela Amadora - Had my reservations about Porto's attack at the beginning of the season as it went over a significant makeover (Taremi, Evanilson, Conceicao out and Samu, Vieira in) but it appears to be on par offensively with Porto teams of yesteryears. When Estrela has faced Benfica x2 and Sporting this season on the road, it has lost the 1H everytime including giving up 3 goals in the 1H in the past two. Definitely think we see a 1H goal here and may consider the 1H -1 spread on Porto.

4. Kallithea/Olympiacos - Taking a shot here on the over 0.75 at even money. Olympiacos coming off getting shut out at home to Twente on Thurs. Kallithea the worst team in Greece. Olympiacos has a penchant for grabbing goals late in the 1H.

@I3C1H

 Regarding lazio/inter, you don’t think they are taxed? If you look at all the champ teams that played this past weekend, most of them either draw or loss outright. Seems like they are super fatigued 

@monkeebooger

Great question. Taty started the game on Thurs and finished because he was suspended for this match. Outside of Pedro, the attackers today at most played just a half. Similar situation for Lautaro as he came on in the 66h minute against Leverkusen. Both teams have the depth to rotate in these competitions and still not miss a beat AND they both got an extra day off playing today instead of the weekend (Lazio 4 days in between, Inter almost a week off). I still like the play a lot.

@monkeebooger

 Also these teams have gotten extra days compared to teams who played Saturday and Sunday. It makes a differencem

@I3C1H

 Excellent analysis sir 

@Brooklyncapper

  You as well!

@I3C1H

 Nice call man

@monkeebooger

 Beautiful way to get to halftime 

 inter 1h goals

@EzzClap

  Love having two teams more than capable of finding the net multiple times

Thank you! Been a while since you last posted. Enjoy your insight

 Inter showing the difference in pedigrees between the two clubs. Maybe a bit too early for Lazio to be true contenders. Wow. What bangers by Dimarco and Barella. Golazos. Was thinking of taking cards in this game but I think that this game is done and dusted.

Will be taking a look at taking over 1 in Bournemouth/West Ham live.

@sauce1

 My pleasure! Thank you for the kind words and will try to post more often!