12/18/25 CL Thoughts/Plays

AC Milan/Feyenoord - Call me a sucker for the romantic gamescript, but last Wednesday's debacle centered around Santiago Gimenez's quick return to his old stomping ground in the CL knockouts of all competitions. So certain that he would show out, I quadrupled down on his props, and by extension on AC Milan. Boy did that blow up in my face. Looking back, I realized 1. he's surrounded by probably the best cumulative talent he's ever been around and 2. disregarding the time needed to adjust to a completely different culture, style of play, etc. was a complete overlook on my part, not to mention not accounting for Milan's piss poor record in the Netherlands as well as Feyenoord's circumstances w/ the emotional wave of having a new manager take charge. Milan should've been better (and I'm sure that was the expectation for the general public because who really expected them to be shut out), but knowing that the only thing predictable about CL is its' unpredictability, pushing that much on AC Milan (and Gimenez) was a mistake. So, let's go back to data. Here are the # of goals over two-leg ties in the round of 16 (closest round to the current round in this year's new format) over the past 4 seasons: 23-24 6/8 ties had 4+ goals (Arsenal/Porto [2] and Leipzig/Madrid [3]); 22-23 4/8 ties had 4+ goals, 2/8 3 goals, and 2/8 1 goal (AC Milan/Tott and Inter/Porto); 21-22 6/8 ties had 4+ goals, 2/8 had 3 goals; and 20-21 7/8 ties had 4+ goals w/ the last tie having 3 goals. A quick look at the numbers and think it's safe to say on average you can expect 4-5 goals in the majority of ties when the final whistles blow. Which is why I'm expecting 2-3 goals here minimum DESPITE Conceicao being involved in that 2-goal tie w/ Arsenal last season and the 1-goal tie w/ Inter the year before. Milan and Feyenoord both have defensive deficiencies yet the visitors haven't conceded in 3 straight matches. I don't see that continuing here and think that streak will end early in the match. Don't forget they got ROMPED in Lille on the final day of group stages. Will be looking to take the 1H over 1 and/or 0.75 runner. Also leaning staking small on Pulisic to assist (+300). He has 6 assists in Serie A but only 1 to date in CL. Dude rises up the challenge when stakes get high and think that's a solid price.

Will see how the AM game plays out before settling on noon games.

Like it. Good luck today 

 I’m going with Corners over 10.5 myself For AC Fey 

@I3C1H

 The over lines are all so high today, especially the Milan and benfica. I don’t want to jinx if but I think both go over. Both at 3.25 now. But both huge pubic over plays. I hope we don’t see another 1-3 over/unders, like when they played last week 

@Thatguy1

 Thank you sir 

@Thinkb4ubet

 Was thinking of playing that with goals and AC Milan for a SGP but ultimately passed. Think it’s a solid play though!

@Lewis1218

 Yeaaa those two were my favorite plays of the day. Was hoping to get onto AC Milan 1H but they scored so early lol. Will have to look for an opportunity to get in at another point. Saw your AC Milan play and agree with it!

@I3C1H

 Always a good read man, BOL to you.

@I3C1H

 I think the best play was Milan -1.5. It looks like they’ll score 3, at least. Unless they slow down after they score second goal. They are playing really well. 

@Brooklyncapper

@Cmlee123

you too my dude!

@Lewis1218

 jeez Milan red card smh you just know these CL games always have a twist but if anything that should open up the game. Actually think the red makes it a more fair game lol.

 Milan screwing a lot of bettors again this week. Don’t know what it is about Conceicao’s teams. Yea he’s not on the pitch where players need to execute but when your teams historically seem to have a difficulty finding the net in this competition I don’t know. Zlatan will be TEARING into those boys.

Benfica/Monaco - The only 1H I really liked on the board (maybe Bayern but will have to monitor live). Similar level and these two played a firecracker of a match during group stages which I think will more likely happen here (after seeing the Milan game though ). Hoping to catch the 1H over 1 here if possible.

No such thing as an easy cash in CL but that was beautiful. Just enough time to catch over 1 and over 0.75 and cash both somewhat easily. Hope ppl cashed and made up for that Milan sh*tshow.

Bayern/Celtic - Took the over 2 at -115 now. Bayern’s done this a couple times this season where they screw around in the 1H and end up goalless at halftime only to blast their opponents away in the 2H with 2-3 goals (they just did it against Werner Bremen a couple weeks ago, against Augsburg, and against Stuttgart already this season). Games been wide open already but you know this just HAD to be the  of the 1H today after we saw 1H goals in all the other ties today. Guarantee someone comes out in the 2H and blasts a goal immediately lol.

Kane hit the crossbar right at the end, that's usually a goal he would have scored.

@icemantbi

 And then he gets subbed off d/t an injury wow. Luckily didn't play the 1H but I swear it just feels rigged sometimes.

@icemantbi

 Screw Kane and bayern 

Lucky on the push but so undeserving for Bayern. At the same time, Celtic can't expect to just take on pressure and expect Bayern not to find the net.

@I3C1H

 I really do think many of these high level matches are rigged. Yesterday’s Barcelona match was so weird. Bayern does this often. They aren’t the Bayern of old. But this match was so fishy.