12/5/ Write-up and Plays

Overall Record: 16-19-8

Week Record: 3-4-0

Not too comfortable w/ cup matches as likely squad rotation and the nature of these games = unpredictability. That being said, found betting dogs to score live in the 2H onwards in the right circumstances to be profitable since these matches tend to be one leg. Usually like cup matches involving teams in different leagues but don't see too many options today.

1 and 2. Wolverhampton/Burnley 1H over 1 (-110), Wolverhampton 1H over 0.5 (-120): Shorter than usual rest periods + the cold spell in large parts of England, particularly the North, make these midweek games tricky to predict. Feel like goalscoring tends to drop off in the winter months, particularly January and February, but anecdotal w/o numbers. That being said, seems like Wolverhampton has shed its' conservative and defensive approach of yesteryears and has a become a more consistent goalscoring team, scoring in 15(!) straight matches. It actually would've scored in all of its' competitive matches this season if it wasn't for VAR screwing it over in Manchester in the season opener. It's already hit the net 19 times in the Premier League this season. Last year? 31 the entire season. Crazy how much a manager's philosophy and tactics can completely flip a team's identity 180 degrees. Good for them, bad for me as I'm holding their season pts under at 39.5, which I took after Lopetegui resigned 3 days before the season. Talk about a complete reversal of fortune.

Good luck!

Good luck!

I don’t get why they always juice the under 2.5 in wolves games and they always fly over 

@Martylee

 Yea seriously. I wonder if the books just haven't caught on after all those years of being more of an "under" team. I was looking off Wolves games on initial glance since the beginning of the season because of their perception from previous seasons. Tbh the attacking front doesn't impress much on paper but maybe that also helps disguise their offensive efficiency this season.

@Martylee

You on the under Marty?

@I3C1H

 Yeah, I took it right before kick at -115. It was 125-135 all morning so I took a chance. EPL has turned into German league as far goals this season so I’m just throwing a dart

@Martylee

Ah. Might've been a smart bet w/ how these midweek games can go, and Wolverhampton's run of overs has to end at some pt lol. Good luck!

Good job on wolves. Feel like under will be cooked 2 half . I took a small hedge on over 1.5 before the goal but really need that under lol

@Martylee

Thanks. Got super lucky. I was actually monitoring Hee Chan to score odds and decided to wait for the 2nd half because he either scores REALLY early or in the second half. Seems like he finally made the adjustment to the Premier League. Great job on the hedge and wishing you the best. Personally, I think this ends 1-1 or 2-0.

@I3C1H

 Are you playing anything 2nd half ?

@Martylee

Nah not on this game. Didn't have a good feel for the entire game, just the 1H. I am keeping an eye on that Lazio/Genoa cup game. If odds are right, leaning towards taking Genoa to nick one later in the game. You on anything else?

@I3C1H

 I was waiting to see another goal in the Genoa game to get an under 3.5 but not gonna happen 

@Martylee

Yea the curse of the early goal is preventing me from pulling the trigger atm on Genoa. Surprised to see Luton and Arsenal at 1-1. With how Luton has played the top 6, thought that game would go under.

@I3C1H

 Funny thing is I was looking at the btts for Arsenal and it was plus money. I should have pulled the trigger . I might do a live under on Arsenal 

@Martylee

Damn those missed opportunities. Yea, under should be good. With the upcoming trip to Villa Park, thinking Arteta wants to see this thing out, and Luton's not going to score. Had one of those just now, too. Was debating between Max Kilman and Craig Dawson to get carded live. Took Dawson and of course Kilman gets booked instead lol.

@I3C1H

 Damn hopefully you get it. I layed off the under and decided to play the women’s USA match under 3.5 . 

@Martylee

Nice call on both the Wolves/Burnley under and laying off the Arsenal game. Luton getting 3 goals is mindboggling. Wonder what those odds were. Good luck on the women's USA match!

Overall Record: 17-19-9

Week Record: 4-4-1

Nice little bounce back today.