1/30/25 Thoughts/Plays

Question

Going lighter today than yesterday as Europa is harder to cap than CL. Don’t think we’ll see as many goals and books seem to agree as I’m seeing more 2.75 totals than yesterday. More teams are in the running to grab bye and playoff spots but don’t think it’ll be as hectic as yesterday across the board. Also looked at the props market but nobody I like that really sticks out so think I’ll stick the usual total plays.

Twente/Besiktas - Ole’s side is one of four teams being chased down by the hosts for the last spot so I’m assuming this will be pretty open as the Dutch side need a win at minimum. Besiktas’ attack looked a lot more like what we expected at the beginning of the season in Ole’s first game in charge last week putting up 4 in a dominant display against Bilbao. Besiktas hasn’t performed well in European competitions on the road this season (draw against Lugano 3-3, lost to Ajax 0-4, won 1-0 against Lyon, and lost 2-1 to Bodo/Glimt), and I have a feeling they’re not all that particularly excited to be playing colder conditions than they usually are after a long travel. Twente has persistently punched above its’ weight all season so I’m expecting them to at least get a result here (remember they drew against ManU at Old Trafford, drew against Fenerbahce, drew against Olympiacos in Greece) but it’s surprising to see them favored to win today. Not touching the spread but I think we should see goals at both ends today with both teams basically in a knockout match.

Midtjylland/Fenerbahce - Took the runner here at over 3 (+118), over 4 (+330), and 6 goals or more (+1000). This could easily blow up in my face but Fenerbahce is clinging to one of the last spots and Midtjy is just a point above so there’s potential here for this to become a shootout if one of the sides below overtakes either of them. With this being a game featuring Mou on a knockout type stage, I’m just expecting drama and Fenerbahce has shown a propensity for having games become batsh*t crazy. We’ll see.

Games I also like to see 1H goals are Roma/Frankfurt and Tel Aviv/Porto (probably this one more).

Sorry about the late post. Good luck to you all an_cheers

I3C1H · Answer

Going lighter today than yesterday as Europa is harder to cap than CL. Don’t think we’ll see as many goals and books seem to agree as I’m seeing more 2.75 totals than yesterday. More teams are in the running to grab bye and playoff spots but don’t think it’ll be as hectic as yesterday across the board. Also looked at the props market but nobody I like that really sticks out so think I’ll stick the usual total plays.

Twente/Besiktas - Ole’s side is one of four teams being chased down by the hosts for the last spot so I’m assuming this will be pretty open as the Dutch side need a win at minimum. Besiktas’ attack looked a lot more like what we expected at the beginning of the season in Ole’s first game in charge last week putting up 4 in a dominant display against Bilbao. Besiktas hasn’t performed well in European competitions on the road this season (draw against Lugano 3-3, lost to Ajax 0-4, won 1-0 against Lyon, and lost 2-1 to Bodo/Glimt), and I have a feeling they’re not all that particularly excited to be playing colder conditions than they usually are after a long travel. Twente has persistently punched above its’ weight all season so I’m expecting them to at least get a result here (remember they drew against ManU at Old Trafford, drew against Fenerbahce, drew against Olympiacos in Greece) but it’s surprising to see them favored to win today. Not touching the spread but I think we should see goals at both ends today with both teams basically in a knockout match.

Midtjylland/Fenerbahce - Took the runner here at over 3 (+118), over 4 (+330), and 6 goals or more (+1000). This could easily blow up in my face but Fenerbahce is clinging to one of the last spots and Midtjy is just a point above so there’s potential here for this to become a shootout if one of the sides below overtakes either of them. With this being a game featuring Mou on a knockout type stage, I’m just expecting drama and Fenerbahce has shown a propensity for having games become batsh*t crazy. We’ll see.

Games I also like to see 1H goals are Roma/Frankfurt and Tel Aviv/Porto (probably this one more).

Sorry about the late post. Good luck to you all an_cheers

I3C1H · Answer

Glad I didn&#x2019;t take anything to heavy today other than the runner as it just looks disgusting across the board.&#xA;Twente/Besiktas - Didn&#x2019;t expect a goalless 1H but glad I ended up doubling down on Midtjy/Fenerbahce (unfortunately took Porto smh). That being said, I&#x2019;m on Besiktas TT over 0.5 (-123) and over 1.5 (&#x2B;414) at halftime. This game has to open up more with both sides being currently out and I think Ole will somehow get the job done as he did when during his early days with ManU. Besiktas just has too much attacking quality to be shutout in a do or die game.