2/25/25 Thoughts and Plays

Chelsea/Southampton - Sometimes my gut feeling goes off and it's usually right. Felt Djed Spence would get his first goal for Tott over the weekend, which allowed me to hit that 1+ SOG but missed out on taking astronomical odds live for AGS. Today, felt Roma's Angelino would shoot 2+ times and possibly score but talked myself out of it and what do you know, he scores. Smh. So I decided to screw the FOMO and go for it here, especially when the numbers look right. Chelsea's been in a slump since all that narrative about being title challengers this season, and coming off that 2H meltdown at Villa Park over the weekend, you can sense the tension surrounding the team. Will Cole Palmer stay if there's CL football next season? What's up with Palmer? Yada yada yada. Maresca just backed his star to find his goalscoring touch, but doesn't take a psychic to predict that with Southampton, who faces mid double digits shots minimum on a weekly basis, coming to the Bridge. I think we see a Cole Palmer special here where we see the whole arsenal come out on his way to a hat trick in the 1H a la how he did to Brighton at the start of the season and against Everton to end last season. Palmer needs goals as much as Chelsea needs an emphatic win, and with Jackson, Madueke, and Mudryk continuing to be out, the onus is on him to perform. Watch him answer the call here. His AGS price is -167, a brace +250, a hat trick +1100. Screw that. Going with 5+ shots (+110), 3+ SOG (+250), 4+ SOG (+600), and 5+ SOG (1400). In the reverse fixture, he the target 4 times on 6 shots. Don't forget he's 4th in the league in total shots and 3rd in SOG behind Haaland and Salah. While we're at it, took Neto's 1+ assist (+250) and 2+ assists (+1400). In a game where I see Chelsea going full throttle the whole 90 minutes, expecting one of the league leaders in assists to bag at least one while Palmer is gunning for goals. Against Villa he created four goal opportunities including the opener. Hoping to catch the 1H over 1 but not sure it'll be long before that first goal comes.

Inter/Lazio - Not the ideal time for either team to be playing in the Coppa quarterfinals. Inter go to Napoli for a battle at the top at the weekend while Lazio travel to Milan to try to fend off one the teams chasing them down for a European spot. You probably remember the 6-0 shellacking the Nerazzurri put on the capital club when Lazio was a ?contender for the Scudetto that basically started the Biancocelesti's slide down the table. Liking the over 2.5, which has hit in seven out of the last nine and eight out of their last eleven. Inter's coming off back-to-back 1 goal games while Lazio's vaunted offense (although no Taty due to injury) got shut out over the weekend. I know these single legged ties can be tight and cagey but with Inter having that showdown against their most viable challengers at the weekend, can't imagine Inzaghi wanting his already thin squad (no Thuram, no Sommer) needing ET to move on (not to mention that trip to Naples is to be followed by a trip to the Netherlands for the first leg of CL R16 in a week's time). That schedule basically applies to the visitors, too, who'll travel to the Czech Republic following the trip to Milan. Probably will play the 1H over 1, 0.75 runner and double down on goals in the 2H if that 1H goal doesn't come.

@I3C1H

 Write ups on point my friend.  out there today.

@Cmlee123

 Thanks brother as always!

Solid day hitting the first rungs on the ladder for Palmer and Neto but seriously surprised (and relieved) Palmer didn't get his goal(s) while defenders Colwill and Cucurella did. Surprise fact: Palmer and Cucurella are now tied for goals since mid December . Watched the whole game and Palmer's body language does not bode well for Chelsea. That chilly cold factor is gone atm. Hoping he discovers it soon for his sake (and that we can catch on). Got one more play.

LAFC/Colorado Rapids - Going to this game tonight and excited for it as it's my first time watching a MLS team live and tickets were dirt cheap considering we're sitting at the halfway line just some rows back. Initially wanted to watch the massacre of the Mavs by Luka but can't believe how much some people are putting up to watch that game. In any case, LAFC is down 1-2 from the first leg where conditions couldn't have been far more uncomfortable and opposite of LA. Now back in the sunshine and heat, expecting LAFC's vaunted attack to show out. Taking the 1H over 1, 0.75 runner here and will be looking for goals, especially after a subdued opening weekend for the black and gold for their standards.

Tank for sharing buddy, great win

Win or not, you do some excellent work, keep it up

@Andalouse

 Thank you my friend, sincerely appreciate that