Brazil Serie A - Nautico +0.5 v Ponte Preta

Question

Can anyone explain why Ponte Preta is a -170 favorite over anybody? They haven&#x27;t scored a goal in their last 4 matches.

composite · Answer

Can anyone explain why Ponte Preta is a -170 favorite over anybody? They haven&#x27;t scored a goal in their last 4 matches.

Vicente87 · Answer

Don&#x27;t know mateReally strange, too strange to play either sideNautico is weak on the road but that doesn&#x27;t explain such juicy line

Vicente87 · Answer

Dunno how trustful is this pagehttps://www.bet-mate.com/View/MoneyWayThis is the game with the biggest money involved, by quite a margin90% of the money on Ponte

mikebdb · Answer

the line is that high because nautico plays great at home but horrible on the road....1 win 4 ties 11 loses.....but with that said i think the plus 1 minus 140 might be a good bet..hoping for tie against them

composite · Answer

Thanks guys. I know Nautico sucks on the road, but PP hasn't scored in their last *FOUR* matches. That's 360 minutes without scoring.

Still, the line movement and the betting percentages are bothersome. Squares don't put tons of $$$ on a team that hasn't scored in 360 minutes.

composite · Answer

Another thing. o2.75 goals is -115 while u2.75 is -105.

PP hasn't scored in 4 matches. Nautico has scored 2 goals in 4 away matches. But there's supposed to be an orgy of scoring today?

I sure wish I knew more about Brazilian soccer to understand WTF is going on.

SlicerDicer · Answer

Thanks for that site vincente, quite useful, especially to see where money is today vs results, maybe find some correlation for future use.

mikebdb · Answer

gambling is alot of guessing...once the game starts and you see how its unfolding then its usually clear as day...but that you never can see ...alot lines are set by what happened when the lasr met....a 3-0 win for nautico at home...so linemakers feel the revenge factor here and see a nice win for pp at home...who knows...

24money · Answer

No clue where any offense will come from as Nautico is horrid scoring on the road (ie: 9 goals in 14 games) and PP is only avg'ing 1.3 goals a game at home. I see a low scoring affair, i'm on the under 3 @ -156.

GL

SlicerDicer · Answer

Well if I go down on fluminense and PP, at least I&#x27;m going down with a ton of others, two highest volumes and %&#x27;s.

GambleForProfit · Answer

Composite you seem like a fairly smart guy so I say this with good intentions stop trying to mix stats and whats supposed to happen with why lines move.  Its very hard to find a strategy with those 2 tools blended that works in a profitable way because often they conflict with each other here is a huge hint: follow the money and here is the hint the "smart" money was on PP

NakuspStyle · Answer

Thanks for the tip on this game, cashed with PP and the over! Cheers!

composite · Answer

G4P - trust me, you have no idea how important line movements are to me. I was just wondering whether the line movement could be attributed to something external like key players injured, key players returning, etc.

And as I said above, the line movement bothered me b/c square bettors don't throw lots of $$ on a team that hasn't scored in 4 games.

Still, this game was hardly reflective of a -170 favorite. PP was losing from the 10th minute til the 70th min. Then got 2 quick goals - one involving a penalty kick. But a win is a win.

Barbarossa · Answer

my friend ,just 5 cents to the topic "line movements"when it comes to soccer / football check lines internationally , Europe / Asiaif the lines dont move over there believe meline movements over here in our sweet home USAmeans   NOTHING

composite · Answer

barb - which books do you check for line movements? I check pinnacle sports.  But they dont post odds for all matches (Costa Rica for instance)

jsab · Answer

5 dimes is a good site to check as well.

GambleForProfit · Answer

All the sharp books are good 5d bookmaker, legends, betfair, Asian books are especially good as well

composite · Answer

Thanks everyone.

don_vito · Answer

NO trust in Nautico

InsidePick · Answer

Soccer, Brazil ASport Recife - GremioGremio to win@2.90 (&#x2B;190)Enjoy!twitter: Mr_GreenInfoskype: MrGreenInfo

Brazil Serie A - Nautico +0.5 v Ponte Preta

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