Copa Libertadores Mar 10-12

Wanderers / Palestino:

It’s worth considering the over above even money. Palestino were lucky to not have conceded a goal or two in their game against Zamora, who had chances galore but were wasteful (always the case in soccer I suppose). With a win in their pocket, the intent to take this tournament seriously may be present. Two noticeable absentees from the last Copa match, Valencia and Valenzuela, will draw in today. A more offensive approach is expected, and that’s fine as they can’t defend very well (they concede as fast as they score). They’ve had a good result in today’s stadium, losing 2-1 to Nacional but qualifying to the Copa.

Wanderers have second spot in the table due to goal differential. Of their two remaining home games, this one is more winnable (at least on paper). I’m expecting them to score on Palestino, but the visitors have enough bark to fight back.  A win here would solidify either team’s grip on second, so I’m hoping for a result. Three goals above even money is a nice looking price.

Over 2.50 2u

Racing / Cristal:

Cristal had no excuse to not kill their last game against Tachira. They sat on a 1-0 lead before whiffing on a penalty after Tachira equalized on a free kick late in the game. I think missing Cesar Pereyra was partly to account for the lacklustre performance. He should be ok to play this game, and brings years of experience from the Argentina Primera. In fact, he scored a goal at "El Cilindro”. Racing has made it clear this is the tournament they want to excel in. A win would send them past the group stage. They’ve scored 3+ goals in their Copa games, and I’ll try to ride this against a beatable opponent.

Not to be outdone, Cristal has made remarks about wanting this game to be an open contest, with the captain declaring a draw doing them no good. They’d love a draw though, I suspect.

Racing TT over 2.00 2u

Over 2.50 2u

Cristal TT over 0.50 - 1/2 unit

No plays:

Sucre / Huracan:

Huracan is the only Argentine side without a midweek break from the domestic league / Copa match schedule. Now they’re playing at altitude against a pretty mediocre team, Sucre, who just happen to lead the table. They’ve been struggling to score however, but against a possibly tired Huracan, they may get a better shot at grabbing a home win.

Guarani / Tachira:

Guarani are priced to win, but Venezuelan sides have been difficult to figure out in this tournament. They may make life difficult for Guarani..or not.

Juan Aurich / River Plate:

River is the on the verge of not qualifying should they lose this match. Media are playing up the synthetic carpet Juan Aurich calls their home pitch as a big obstacle, and it probably helps the home side in that they are more used to it. It’s likely crap to play on, but don’t buy into the narrative this surface is enough to swing the game in Juan Aurich’s favour, or that River will be happy with another draw. River was a genuine disadvantage in their game at altitude vs San Jose ( for comparison, Tigres were labouring late in their game at Oruro). They then faced a very good side in Tigres at home. Neither of those apply here, and I only see weather as something that could play a role (possible wind and rain). River is preparing for the surface and lighting, and I trust they will adapt fast to the playing conditions.

Juan Aurich had an easy win over San Jose, but stronger locals like Sporting Cristal and Alianza Lima have been coming in regularly and getting results, so this is hardly a fortress. Real or synthetic turf, it’s still soccer, and you have to go with the better team who will likely not leave anything to chance.

River 1x2 1.5u

River -0.75

River TT over 1.25

Over 2.00

Beer,  Im relieved to read your thoughts on River. I didn't want to factor in ' The Turf " as an advantage to JA. I just think River are at a much better talent level then JA, no matter where they play.

Appreciate your thoughts

Lets Cash