England v Iran...

The World Cup hasn't got off to the best start with Qatar seemingly being overwhelmed by the occasion and totally frozen with nerves - they really aren't as bad as they showed.  Probably ends my futures bet on them to advance but any punter that dwells on individual results and fails to focus on the longer term strategy and return will give it all back and some to the bookmaker.  Moving on..

England v Iran 

Before we get to the game I find it interesting to note that in 4 of the last 5 world cups a big under dog has won in the first 3 games.  Germany was the exception and in fact a  huge outlier with almost no dogs winning in the entire tournament.  

So I've kind of alluded to where I'm heading with this game.  England have been in truly atrocious form recently, failing to win any of their last 6 competitive fixtures and even managing to lose to lowly Hungary both home and away.  Yikes!!!  IMO Southgate just isn't a very good coach and is wasting away an excellent group of talented players.

Iran are no World beaters by any stretch, but what we do know is they have a coach in Carlos Queiroz who's been around these players a long time, being this is his second stint in charge.  I also know exactly what I'm going to get from him in terms of tactics.  He's going to make his team as hard as possible to beat and maybe they can knick something from a set piece opportunity.  With Porto forward Taremi upfront that is always a possibility.  Let's also remember England's backline is very unsettled at the moment, with a number of players low on confidence and out of form, making the task for Southgate ever more challenging.  The stress and pressure on this squad and coach right now must be absolutely immense.  Just as much as a win would alleviate that immediately a loss will do just the same, as the England players will once again prove to their expectant nation that this isn't the year and all pressure will be off the players to perform.

So with all that being said I find Iran way over the odds at 11.00, some places 12+.  There's no way England justifies being as short as they are in their current form and certainly not based on how early games in the tournament go.  None of the big teams care how many goals they win by in their first game, that just want a win to start building off, so I find the +1.5 on Iran just as compelling.  In the case England get it right on the day I think a 1-0 result seems the more probable scoreline.

Iran +1.5 (main bet)
Iran to win 
Correct Scores England 1-0 / 0-0

1-0? Man, idk. Over 2.5 only -140 . Some think England going to score both halves. What do you think about the under ?

Initially was going to play it but I a bit apprehensive about that England backline.  It probably wins, but it wouldn't take much for things to unravel.  I'd want to at least make a decision at game time once I knew the England lineup.  Any sign of Maguire or Trent Alexander Arnold and I'd be running far away from that bet.

@matt-e-matticle

 Tough because I really want to play the under . Think England wants to coast for rest. 

And idk I have a thing about the early games staying under lol 

I see a lot of punters focus on this but I'm not sure the stats back this up.  

For example.. in the last 5 WC's 45% of games have gone over 2.5 and 55% under 2.5.  Not overwhelming in favour of either.

Of course if you think this will be another South Africa world cup then you'd be laughing because 90% of games in the 1st round went under.

But then when you look at Brazil 80% went over. 

So again I'm not sure this is just the straight forward lay up bet that will make money at every world cup that some punters seem to think it is.

But don't let me talk you out of a bet if you feel confident.

If the under is 2.5 then Under is a solid pick.  England is your typical 1-0 kind of team

Can’t see Iran getting anything from this game at all England are far superior with world-class players playing in the best league in the world they haven’t played their best in the nations league but that’s a glorified friendly Southgate used it to experiment and no one really cares if you lose those games this is different this is the world cup , ive got England to win the tournament, Iran ,USA & Wales I think this is The easiest group for a seeded team although pundits here are pointing out it’s the highest ranked group with all  4 teams ranked in the top 20 however I think England will win all three games and beat Iran convincingly

good luck 

Haha...not one bit of bias detected in your post.

Every time I have a stat that suggests that England may underperform at this World Cup you always seem to have a response that completely dismisses it without really addressing the concern.

I mention Harry Kane not scoring for 12 months in open play for England and you respond with his historical goal numbers for England as though that some how just cancels out his recent struggles.

Now I mention England's struggles in the UEFA Nations League - which to some degree I agree are glorified friendlies - but I wonder what was your excuse for losing the Euros at home up 1-0 to an Italian side that isn't even in this World Cup?  The same Italian side that surely your boys would have been absolutely itching to atone for that failure against and still threw up a dud performance in Milan.

I love fans that are passionate about their team, it is after all what makes the world game so great.  But respectfully, I don't feel that kind of bias is useful in assessing football games to win money.  

@matt-e-matticle

 Love the analysis, good luck to your play

Nice write up!

I find tremendous value in the BTTS and BTTS&O2.5 markets for this matchup..waiting for the closing lines.

On the same. But Iran's keeper is good shot stopper but bad on corners and positioning . not as bad as Mr Qatar tho lol

Someone pointed out tome the fact that Iran couldn’t hang with South Korea in qualifying so that means England will blow their doors off lol 

England never blows teams out in wc..expect a 1 goal win

@mikebdb

 Yeah that’s why I stuck with my under.

Iran would drive this into negative scoring if they could. Almost haven't seen a more annoying match since 2014 WC match between Iran and Argentina 

Difficult to gauge England as Iran are absolute trash. Joke of a country and a joke of a football team.

England did look good through the middle though. Their movement and speed was obvious.

*That number 3 for Iran . . . .  dumbest prick in football. Splashing water in face and slapping his injured goal keeper to get him to stay in the game. Go home.

Happy to put my hand up and say I got this terribly wrong and I definitely misread this game - seems most did.  First round games are always hard to know exactly how teams are going to fair.  

England's performance somewhat reminiscent of their 1st round thrashing of Panama in the last World Cup.  Iran pretty much did everything I expected from them, I just thought they might be able to hang tough for much longer in the game.  Once the goal came it was game over and Iran just folded up.

This performance changes my view of England in that they can truly turn their form on when it matters.  But my biggest doubt around England has nothing to do with their hugely talented group of players and solely lies with Gareth Southgate.  I will gladly oppose England when they face tougher opposition and a better coach, so perhaps @crafty_cockney is right and England will win all their group games as they did last WC.  I certainly didn't see anything in the US v Wales game that would concern England.

One thing I did get right was Harry Kane haha... Still no goal in open play.  I doubt he'll be winning the golden ball now given they won't be scoring 6 goals every game and he'll probably be rested in game 3 - provided they win game 2 of course.